Memphis Grizzlies 2023-24 Regular Season Preview and Predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies are so back. What are the best, worst, and most likely-case scenarios for the 2023-24 season?

Parker Fleming

Oct 25, 2023

Roster additions: Marcus Smart (trade), Derrick Rose (free agency), GG Jackson (draft, two-way)

Roster losses: Dillon Brooks (free agency), Tyus Jones (trade)

Last season’s team record: 51-31

Last season's conference ranking: 2nd

Last season’s outcome: 1st-round exit, 6 games

Last season’s offensive and defensive rating: 114.7 (11th), 110.7 (3rd)

Projected (fully healthy) starting lineup: Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman

“Back to the Grind” — as the Grizzlies say with their newest slogan. Memphis Grizzlies basketball is officially back, entering year 5 of the “Grz Nxt Gen” era. They’re coming into this season hungrier and angrier after a crushing loss in the first round of the playoff last season.

They brought in veteran reinforcements to help guide this young team to their championship goals by trading for Marcus Smart and signing Derrick Rose. They have their “Big 3” cornerstones — Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane — in tact for the foreseeable future.

Who the Grizzlies are missing for a chunk (or all) of the year looms over everything. Ja Morant will miss the 1st 25 games of the season, as he’s suspended for brandishing a firearm on Instagram live for the 2nd time. Brandon Clarke tore his achilles and won’t be back until 2024. Steven Adams was just deemed out for the season, as his MCL will be surgically repaired.

The show must go on though. The Grizzlies are back in action for their 23rd season in the city of Memphis.

What could be on tap this season?

Best-case scenario

The Memphis Grizzlies’ mentality shift yields big dividends.

There seems to be a different vibe to start the season. Taylor Jenkins has discussed adding new gears to the season. Desmond Bane talked about how the start of training camp was the best practice they’ve ever had. While there’s still the excitement — from joining postgame interviews, to celebrating sick dunks off the bench — there’s an encouraging level of focus going into the season.

The big dividends at play? Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane taking another leap in their games to give the Grizzlies a bonafide All-Star Big 3 is the primary one. Ja Morant coming out the gate fully-focused and ready for his reintroduction is the most important.

Around them, it boils down to Marcus Smart materializing into the veteran acquisition they envisioned. In addition, if one (or even two or three!) of Ziaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, or David Roddy becomes a legitimate top-8 playoff rotation guy, they change the calculus of this team to a degree.

All in that, the Grizzlies establish themselves as a “tier 1 contender” for 2024 and beyond.

Worst-Case Scenario

Yes, health aside. Injuries are always the worst scenario possible. Not a great start either!

A “worst-case” scenario for the Grizzlies would be stagnation. The half-court offense can’t elevate and remains in the bottom-10 in efficiency. The team is unable to find a rhythm offensively in the season-long absence of Steven Adams. Then, continued struggles in the wing rotation lead to them having to answer hard questions on the trade market as well.

The rest of the Western Conference catches up — as star moves from the Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors, up-and-coming teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder, and bounce-back candidates like the Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans … all enter the fray. The West will remain a bloodbath, and any sort of stagnation or struggle could lead to a play-in appearance. It’s the West, anything’s on the table.

Most likely scenario

Health is the only reason to doubt the Memphis Grizzlies’ inability to remain towards the top of the Western Conference. They’ve been a regular season machine, accruing wins even as the rotation shuffles due to injuries. In addition, there’s usually a player that takes some sort of a leap each season — and someone within that 3-wing group of Williams, Roddy, and LaRavia are likely candidates.

As long as Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Ja Morant, and Marcus Smart are in the fold, it’s tough to see them fail.

There may be some tweaks to iron out to start the year, but the Grizzlies will likely under a positive systematic re-tool parlaying into improvements to their halfcourt offense. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are catalysts, especially in the first 25 games. A full season of Luke Kennard and continued improvement for Santi Aldama should provide a huge jolt and complement to its cornerstones. With the Marcus Smart pick-up, he’ll help this Grizzlies defense remain an elite one, while adding an extra dimension with his playmaking from the 3rd perimeter starting spot. Ziaire Williams’ promising preseason may parlay into a bounce-back campaign that cements him as a playoff rotation guy.

Oh, and Ja Morant’s return won’t mess up their groove. In fact, it triggers a surge towards the top of the West.

What are you most excited about this season?

Desmond Bane’s production this year remains the most tantalizing. Last season, he joined Steph Curry and Kevin Durant as the only players that averaged at least 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists while shooting 40% from 3. In addition, he averaged 23.5 points per game in last season’s playoff series, which included back-to-back 30+ point performances in Games 4 and 5.

Bane accomplished these feats on an injured toe — which sidelined him for 17 games last season, then he addressed it with offseason surgery.

So now that Desmond Bane is healthy, what’s in store for him in year 4?

Just in year 3, he grew as a live-dribble creator. He raised his assist total yet again (from 2.8 to 4.1 per game). He also attacked inside the arc more frequently and efficiently, dubbing the moniker of “Downhill Des.” With Morant’s 25-game absence, Bane will surely carry more creation responsibilities, which could take his game to a new level and allow the Grizzlies to stay afloat.

If Desmond Bane earns All-Star nods this season, it wouldn’t be surprising.

Name a (realistic) trade you want to see

This part was a last-minute addition, as Steven Adams’ injury adds to the inevitability of a trade to bolster the frontcourt. After Morant’s suspension hits 5 games, they can sign someone to be on the roster between games 6 and 25 without waiving anyone.

They have a traded player exception worth roughly $7M after the Dillon Brooks sign-and-trade. Notable big men that fit inside it: Mason Plumlee (after 12/15), Nick Richards, Dwight Powell, Andre Drummond, Alex Len.

My “realistic” trade: Grizzlies trade Brandon Clarke and a lottery-protected 1st-round pick (either 2024 or 2025, doesn’t matter — just keep an eye on that Suns swap to make sure it doesn’t look golden) to the Washington Wizards for Daniel Gafford.

Trading Clarke would be a tough bullet to bite, even with an achilles injury — he’s been an instrumental piece to the team’s system and culture. Addressing team needs come at a price.

The Wizards are a rebuilding team that gets a young vet and a pick. Gafford is an efficient big man as a lob threat and rim protector, who also fits the timeline of this team.

Predicted win/loss record and seeding

I’ll roll with 49-33 for the Grizzlies. There may be struggles getting accustomed to a retooled offense through Morant’s 25-game suspension and Adams’ season-long injury. In addition, the West has loaded up in a way where there’s not an off night. Nonetheless, they’ve shown the ability to churn out regular season wins, even as the rotation shuffles. I’ll have them 4th in the Western Conference.

West predictions:

Top-6: Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Memphis Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors, Minnesota Timberwolves
Play-In: Oklahoma City Thunder, Sacramento Kings, Los Angeles Clippers, Dallas Mavericks
Lottery: New Orleans Pelicans, Houston Rockets, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers

Quick-hit predictions

The Grizzlies have an All-Star this year: Desmond Bane.
Taylor Jenkins wins Coach of the Year.
The Grizzlies make a deadline move for a big man.
The Grizzlies are a game away from the Western Conference Finals.

SubTsak Player Preview Roundup

Ja Morant and Brandon Clarke previews will be done as they’re closer to returns. GG Jackson, Vince Williams Jr., and Jacob Gilyard will be a joint two-way preview ahead of the Memphis Hustle season opener. If you want to read the Steven Adams one, great, but it’s devastatingly no longqer applicable

I’m so pumped to have this first full season for SubTsakalidis. Thank you very much for your support thus far, as we’ve raised nearly $2000 for St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital without any regular season or playoff basketball. That’s so awesome.

Again, thank you for the support. Let’s get ready for another season of Memphis Grizzlies basketball.

If you choose to support my Substack, SubTsakalidis — aka “SubTsak” — follow this link to my St. Jude fundraiser page. If you choose to subscribe, all proceeds will go towards St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.