How Kenneth Lofton Jr. fits in the rotation next season
Kenneth Lofton Jr. has performed and improved to the point where he could be in line for rotation minutes.
It didn’t take Memphis Grizzlies fans long for them to find themselves endeared to Kenneth Lofton Jr.
Immediately out the gates in Summer League last season, he showcased a familiar bag.
The jabstep. The post physicality and footwork. The soft left-handed touch. A faceup game that combines his brute force and pristine footwork.
Sounds familiar, right?
Lofton gave Grizzlies fans a nostalgic feel with a skillset reminiscent of Zach Randolph. And with being 19 years old, Lofton offers upside of being another diamond in the rough for this Grizzlies’ scouting department.
While Lofton took fans on a trip to the past and gave them visions of his possible future, his improvements over the past year initiates confidence in his ability to contribute in the present.
Lofton dominated G League competition this past season with his old-school skillset, coupled with improvements with his body and with his playmaking. Plenty of rewards followed him: representing the G League in the Next Up game, winning G League Rookie of the Year, landing 1st team honors on both All G League and All-Rookie G League teams, and securing a 4-year deal with the Grizzlies.
There’s information the Grizzlies have that we don’t for Taylor Jenkins to trust him with spot rotation minutes towards the end of last season, and for Zach Kleiman to opt to sign him to a long-term deal (over picking up a veteran stopgap amidst injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke).
Looking ahead to this upcoming season, the next quest for Lofton is locking in rotation minutes with the Grizzlies.
Fans pushed agendas for Lofton to be in the rotation this past season, though the frontcourt is rather crowded. There was no supplanting Jaren Jackson Jr., Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke. Santi Aldama’s improvement and perimeter skill bolstered his stance in the rotation as well. Xavier Tillman was up next, and provided the 2-way impact to fill in quite well — showcasing stellar paint defender, and passing tests against star matchups with flying colors.
Nonetheless, Lofton showcased 2 areas of improvement that warrant placing him in the conversation for rotation minutes.
Defensive playmaking and outside shooting.
I highlighted Lofton’s defensive improvements in a previous Summer League takeaways breakdown. The amount of defensive events generated did catch eyes. He had a simple knack of being at the right place at the right time, using his quick hands to disrupt downhill progress and cause turnovers.
While you will need to test its translation against NBA playmakers in regular season action, the growth is real, even if it may not paint the entire picture of his defensive prowess. He’ll likely need to play most — if not all — his minutes next to Jaren Jackson Jr. Defense with any other frontcourt partner may be a house of cards.
Nonetheless, his defensive playmaking could prove a pathway for Lofton to grow as a NBA defender. His lack of size and explosiveness for a big man hinders his rim protection, and he may not have the lateral quickness to be a switch big. However, he could minimize those weaknesses by identifying the right level to defend the ball screen at, and staying disruptive between the ball-handler and roller in downhill activity.
Lofton’s outside shooting could be the differentiator between him and Tillman for minutes as the 4th big man. With the Summer League, he canned 44% (11/25) of his 3’s — up from 32.1% on 4.3 attempts per game in 13 Showcase Cup games, and 25% on 2.6 attempts per game in 17 regular season games.
However, if his shooting progresses, he’s the only player in the center rotation — aside from Jaren — that’s a 3-point threat. It could be Lofton’s ticket to the rotation.
The Grizzlies typically have a non-spacing big on the floor that serves as a hub for screening, rolling, DHO’s, and passing to cuts. Creating popping possibilities, as well as slotting Lofton off at the wing or corner some possessions, opens up the floor immensely for the downhill attack to either score in the paint, or drive-and-kick for 3’s.
Now, Lofton still needs to grow as a high-post hub as both a screener and passer, averaging more turnovers than assists this past season. However, he does show potential as a playmaker with his vision and the sauce on his passes. His scoring upside as both a roller and face-up big offer intrigue in these sets.
Nonetheless, if shooting is a deciding factor between minutes for (hypothetically) Xavier Tillman and Kenneth Lofton Jr., then Junior could have a compelling argument for immediate rotation minutes.
Even with Lofton’s improvements, rotation minutes are going to be hard to come by in the Grizzlies’ crowded frontcourt. Don’t need to explain much with Jackson and (a healthy) Adams. Santi Aldama’s size and perimeter skill are incredibly intriguing and make him an asset in the Grizzlies’ system. Xavier Tillman was a glue to a squad falling apart with injuries last season and provides real two-way value.
There is still a lot to see from Lofton at the NBA level, as he’s only played 113 non garbage times minutes — 40 of those in the season finale against OKC — per Cleaning the Glass. We have to gauge the performance against NBA competition. Though, Lofton has passed every challenge. This is surely the next step, right?
Could Lofton find his way into the rotation? Absolutely, and there will be opportunity at least for minutes as the “next man up” — moments where plenty of young Grizzlies players have answered to the call and risen to the occasion. He could continue to grow his game to sharpie himself in the rotation next season when the frontcourt gets more expensive — with Tillman’s unrestricted free agency, and Aldama becoming extension-eligible — and decisions need to be made.
How Lofton continues to improve his game and thrive on the court will be fascinating to monitor this upcoming season. Kenneth Lofton Jr. has performed to the point where his inclusion could be a matter of when and not if.
If you choose to support my Substack, SubTsakalidis — aka “SubTsak” — follow this link to my Allie’s Allies St. Jude fundraiser page. If you choose to subscribe, all proceeds will go towards St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.