John Konchar, boats, and mystery boxes

John Konchar has provided a reliable impact on winning basketball through his time with the Memphis Grizzlies. Outside shooting could solidify his rotation spot within crowded competition for minutes.

You probably remember the boat and mystery box scene from “Family Guy,” right? Peter has to choose between a boat and a mystery box. He inevitably chooses the mystery box, because it “could be anything, even a boat.”

If you don’t, get a quick glimpse.

The Memphis Grizzlies fanbase has been experiencing it for a bit with John Konchar. For some reason, the (soon-to-be) 5th-year veteran wing has been a scapegoat. There’s usually a call for his roster — or, less drastically, rotation — spot to be stripped from him. It could be in favor of someone not on the roster whose fit is unknown, talent level unclear, and NBA production on winning basketball unseen. Or it could be in favor of younger prospects on the roster who hold higher upside but have more question marks in their game — whereas Konchar’s game is more definitive.

I don’t really understand the scapegoating.

John Konchar doesn’t pop off the box score, primarily in the scoring department — a possible root of criticism. However, he’s still a good NBA player that serves as a connector on both ends of the floor. He’ll make the extra pass, fight for 50/50 balls (rebounds or loose balls), and create defensive events.

Konchar’s impact on winning is rather clear. People discredit his advanced metrics, but showing value in multiple metrics has to indicate some level of productivity on the floor. The Grizzlies outscored opponents by 7.1 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass, whenever he was on the floor — and Luke Kennard was the only bench player with a higher net rating.

Konchar has shortcomings as a player, but he’s a far cry from his perception amongst the fanbase. While he doesn’t have the allure of the unknown like a mystery box, he possesses reliability and stability (like a boat) that allows him to have a positive impact on the court.

Konchar’s contributions are most tied to his defense. He covers a lot of space on the floor with his quick hands and feet. And apparently he’s the fastest defender in the league:

Konchar processes the game quickly. His timing on rotations, on-ball defense (93rd percentile, per The B-Ball Index), and defensive events all are rather impeccable for a player that doesn’t possess gaudy physical tools. He ranked in the 96th percentile in steals/75 possessions (1.9) and in the 90th in deflections per 75 possessions (3.4). He also fell in the 81st percentile in BLK% and 89th in steal%, per Cleaning the Glass. Only 6 wings boasted block and steal percentages in the 80th percentile or higher:

• OG Anunoby

• Jonathan Isaac

• Matisse Thybulle

• Gary Payton II

• Justin Holiday

• John Konchar

For a team that harps on creating turnovers and igniting transition offense, it’s easy to see why Taylor Jenkins plays John Konchar.

Konchar also flies around for rebounds. He’s a rock-solid rebounder defensively — ranking in the 82nd percentile in adjusted defensive rebound success rate (71.5%), per The B-Ball Index. Where his value shines in this department comes offensively, as his adjusted offensive rebound rate (1.23) falls in The B-Ball Index’s 94th percentile.

For a team that prides itself on winning the possession battle, you need as many players as possible who specialize in creating cycles (defensive events into offense) and in rebounding on both sides of the floor. Whether it’s causing turnovers or crashing the glass, John Konchar has a nose for the ball.

John Konchar’s improvements come offensively, as his efficiency decreased last season compared to the prior year.

• Points per Shot Attempt fell from 123 to 109.

• Rim FG% 75% to 65%

• Effective Field Goal Percentage: and 61.8% to 52.3.

These particular metrics fell from rather superb marks (all within the 89th-97th percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass) to middling ones, year over year. Offensive wasn’t totally lost, as he generated 1.6 points per possessions as a cutter, again highlighting his nose for the basketball.

Where his offense needs to improve — and will coincide with boosts in efficiency — comes with growth in 3-point shooting. This area of improvement is a glaring one, as Konchar stated in his exit interviews that he needs to be at least a 40% 3-point shooter while also showing an aggressiveness to let it fly.

There’s upside for him as a shooter — shot 41.3% from 3 (though on 1.8 attempts per game) in the season prior, and started the season (first 22 games) shooting 41.1% from 3 on 4.1 attempts per game. However, Konchar’s shooting slipped after this stretch, falling to 33.9% from 3 overall this past season. He also only shot 33.3% on catch-and-shoot 3’s and 36.1% from the corner. Those numbers have to rise for Konchar to solidify himself into the rotation, as those are particular facets of outside shooting will be where his scoring opportunities come from.

If Konchar could rediscover his touch from the 2021-22 season and the start of 2022-23, it’ll open up his game to attack closeouts where he could either get cleaner looks at the basket, or find his teammates for better scoring opportunities.

As the team is looking to improve its halfcourt offense, any sort of rotation questions off the bench will be answered in the form of outside shooting. And there are a handful of options off the bench, some more of a “mystery box” than Konchar, that are in play for minutes. Outside shooting could be his ticket to solidified playing time, and for him to amplify his connective skillset.

John Konchar has been on a really neat developmental arc — going from two-way player, to emergency role player, to rotation player… all while providing a reliable presence and positive influence on winning for the Memphis.

How Konchar rounds out as an outside shooting threat will dictate the magnitude he impacts the game in his jitty ways.

If you choose to support my Substack, SubTsakalidis — aka “SubTsak” — follow this link to my Allie’s Allies St. Jude fundraiser page. If you choose to subscribe, all proceeds will go towards St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.