How Ziaire Williams can bounce back in year 3

Ziaire Williams is move past a sophomore slump to re-emerge as a key piece for the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Memphis Grizzlies laid the groundwork for Ziaire Williams to build upon a promising rookie season for a leap in year 2. Williams set a solid foundation his rookie season with promising production and tools through increased roles as a starter and a playoff rotation player out the gate. The next step required putting the ball in his hands to grow as a creator, and in turn build confidence to further his growth as a player.

Unfortunately, a lingering knee injury derailed his sophomore season. He returned to action in early December, but never really got going offensively — which hindered his overall production. When not on the injury report in 2023, Williams spent time rebuilding his foundation and confidence with the Memphis Hustle.

Now, Ziaire Williams enters a big year 3, looking to bounce back and recapture the momentum built just a year ago. He didn’t suit up in Summer League, as some people may have expected from him. Instead, he’s been working out with trainers and adding some strength — after dealing with knee tendonitis last season.

Williams wouldn’t be the first Grizzlies player to bounce back in year 3 after a sophomore slump. Brandon Clarke and Xavier Tillman have done so the past 2 seasons. However, each player has its own situation, so it’s not a guarantee.

Nonetheless, Williams’ response in year 3 will be an important development to monitor. How can Williams find his rhythm and re-establish himself as a key fixture in the Grizzlies’ plans?

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The mid-range jumper is an obvious point in his skillset. Williams possesses an intriguing base to be a weapon in the mid-range. He has ideal size at 6’9” — with possibility he’s even taller than listed — and he combines it with high ball placement and optimal elevation on his jumper. There’s also the production to pair with his tools — connecting on 20/33 (61%) of his “long” mid-range shots in his rookie season, 7/12 last season.

(note: and now the flashes of what we saw last season)

The key to tapping into it though? People would argue putting the ball in his hands would unlock it. However, his spot in the team’s pecking order among ball-handlers — Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and even Jaren Jackson Jr. — may not give him a ton of those chances.

The real key into unleashing that element of his game is getting Ziaire in movement.

Luckily, the Grizzlies have a great connector from the center position in Steven Adams — a high post hub that generates offensive opportunities through his screening and his passing. Uncovered from “Funaki Stats” on Twitter (I’m not calling it “X”), Williams possessed an effective field goal percentage of 61% from Adams’ passes. The space created from his screening off handoffs would give Williams ample room to comfortably get to his spots inside the mid-range.

In the G League, he showed promise off movement, scoring 1.278 points per possession off screens. Though it was a small sample size (8/16 shooting, per Synergy Sports), and the number gets a bump because the makes were spilt between 2’s and 3’s. There was a noticeable comfortability in these spots, as it helped him find more of a rhythm both off the dribble and the catch. Running him in similar actions could help find a groove off movement without necessarily shouldering an on-ball role.

The other component of a bounce-back offensively is his skill as a cutter. He scored 1.4 PPP as a cutter this past season. It’s important for the Grizzlies to tap into this facet of Williams’ game, especially in the halfcourt, as he’s one of the lone vertical threats in the wake of Brandon Clarke’s absence. Often slotted in the corner in the halfcourt, he manages to slide down the baseline, as defenses gravitate towards the main action downhill. In turn, his teammates would find him soaring up and towards the basket for an easy bucket. The Grizzlies are a frequent lob team and a squad needing to spice up their halfcourt offense, and the presence of Williams lurking on the baseline from the corner or the dunker spot could be a wrinkle to add to the system.

In the process, it allows him to identify opportunities to make the extra pass as the defense shifts to cut him off the line.

Keeping Ziaire Williams in movement could be a catalyst in re-establishing him as a bonafide piece for the rotation. At the end of the day though — health aside — the outside jumper is the most pivotal component for the trajectory of his season. With the logjam between him, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, and John Konchar for minutes, the wing that comes out on top will likely be the one who’s shooting the best from deep.

Williams has shown promise as an outside shooter — shooting 38.8% from 3 from February of his rookie year until the end of the season, and making 3 or more triples in 12 games (including a playoff win in the 2nd round). The shooting upside hasn’t fully materialized though. His 3-point percentage plummeted to 25.8% from 3 — and wasn’t much better with the Hustle, 25% (10/40) in 7 games. Even scratching it out for injury reasons, he only made 31.8% of his catch-and-shoot 3’s in his rookie year, a subpar mark for wings in the modern NBA.

No one is asking Williams to reach the caliber of Desmond Bane or Luke Kennard as a 3-point shooter, but vaulting his 3-point percentage even into an average stratosphere (let’s say, 35%) would be a great start. It could be a confidence booster that gets him on the floor that allows him to tap into the previously mentioned elements of his game.

Nonetheless, Williams has to progress as a shooter to solidify a role on this team and come closer to actualize his upside.

A bounce-back season from Ziaire Williams is an important development for the team’s wing rotation. He offers great size, athletic pop, live-dribble upside, and defensive tools — a combination not currently on this team.

Williams’ progression past his sophomore slump gives the Grizzlies depth. Rounding back into form from his rookie season with some rooms for growth would give the Grizzlies a probable starting 3 for the first 25 games of the season, a role he’s contributed in and the Grizzlies have seen success with. Spanning further out, he’s another playoff-ready wing, as he’s shown the ability to impact winning in those moments. He also bolsters their role depth of defensive stoppers past Marcus Smart — as his size, quick feet, and screen navigation make him a tantalizing defensive prospect capable of guarding any perimeter position.

There’s history of Grizzlies prospects working past bummers in their 2nd seasons to impact winning basketball the following year. Will Ziaire Williams be the next one? If Williams follows that path, what does it add to this team? As Williams enters his 3rd season, it becomes a crucial time to regain momentum upon the foundation of his tools and promising rookie year.

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