Santi Aldama is the Grizzlies' X-Factor
Santi Aldama flashed a ton of skill and upside in his sophomore leap, laying the foundation for him to become the Memphis Grizzlies' x-factor.
Santi Aldama’s development last season was unexpected. Sure, he planted seeds for some sort of leap during his Summer League performance. But to expect him to help hold down the fort in Jaren Jackson Jr.’s 15-game absence to start the season, to solidify a role, and to impact winning? It probably wasn’t on everyone’s bingo cards.
The Memphis Grizzlies typically have a young player take some sort of leap each season of the “GrzNxtGen” era, and Santi Aldama was up for it last season. Sure, the numbers don’t pop off the page — 9.0 points on 47% shooting and 35.3% from 3 to go along with 4.8 rebounds in 21.8 minutes per game. He did show promise last season — averaging 10.9 points and 6.3 rebounds in 20 games as a starter, corralling 4 double-doubles (2 of them being 20/10 games), and shooting 46.7% from 3 in the playoffs.
When analyzing Aldama’s game, it’s less about numbers but more about his skillset. He’s a 6’11” forward that can shoot the 3-ball, put the ball on the floor, make legitimately good reads (with some saucy passes to go with it), and provide some dose of rim protection. He possesses fluidity on his drives, gliding downhill and finishing with finesse. And sometimes, he amps up his finesse and fluidity to turn his swag on. Needless to say, his skill level at his size falls in line with the NBA’s direction of “upsized skill.”
After his progression in his sophomore season, and his encouraging performance with the Spanish national team in last month’s FIBA tournament, Aldama is set to be an important contributor for this Grizzlies team for the foreseeable future.
He very well may be the Grizzlies’ x-factor going into next season.
Aldama’s perimeter skill stands out the most. He’s the perfect complementary player offensively for this core. He’s a big target — whether it’s spotting up, cutting, or rolling to the basket. His 3-point percentage is a modest 35.3% on 3.5 attempts per game, and his catch-and-shoot splits in guarded and unguarded situations are nearly identical — 35.4% on guarded attempts, and 35.2% on unguarded, per Synergy Sports.
Aldama has a quick shot release, and his size allows him to shoot over defenders, whether it’s a tight defender off a handoff or one closing out. Outside shooting in today’s NBA is key, especially when deploying shooters that can fire over, or in the midst of, the defense.
Aldama is also an instinctive cutter, identifying lanes within the defense to crash and make himself available for passes. He generates 1.567 points per possession off cuts, per Synergy Sports. He runs the baseline to catch the defense napping, setting himself up for easy buckets as a lob threat or off short-roll passes from the big man. They can run a lot of cool stuff with him — including running from off screens to set up lob finishes, often used in elbow sets.
Aldama can also put the ball on the floor. He doesn’t have this flashy bag as a ball-handler, but he’s a decisive driver that can turn a corner off handoffs or attack a closeout. He couples it with finesse necessary to finish within the defense. There’s little awkwardness or stiffness when he’s off the dribble. His movement is fluid, and he’s fearless when heading towards the basket.
Though he didn’t generate a ton of assists (1.3 per game), don’t sleep on Santi Aldama as a playmaker. He shows upside with his vision and creativity. He isn’t shy on throwing some sauce on his dishes. I don’t know how high his ceiling is as a passer. Nonetheless, he adds another dimension as someone that can put the ball on the floor and make plays for others.
These strengths are all intriguing because of the implications it could have on his ceiling, as well as the team’s.
Breaking it down from an individual standpoint, there’s room for growth in all these areas, even through the flashes.
He’s likely due for a larger role off the bench as the 3rd big man, since Brandon Clarke probably won’t return until 2024. So there could be opportunities for Aldama to have more shots, and to be featured more from the second unit.
Aldama could also add more to his bag as a ball-handler to unlock some funky sets. Adding strength is a big focus for Aldama as well, and doing so should help him get to his spots with more ease. Those two elements of his game should level his efficiency as a two-point scorer as volume rises.
From a team standpoint, Aldama can help alleviate the team’s halfcourt woes. Outside shooting is an obvious standpoint in those improvements, but Aldama’s versatility unlocks more dynamics within the offensive sets. He’s another player that can run off screens via cuts, handoffs, and spot-up’s — one that can make plays for himself or others with the ball in his hands, as well.
The most intriguing element of these strengths is the intersection of these skills. The level of Aldama’s skill as a dribble-pass-shoot big man opens up drive-and-kick possibilities. It’s a facet of his game he’s flashed promise in, as 44% of his passes off drives result in an assist — 92nd percentile, per The B-Ball Index. Sporting drive-and-kick weapons opens the halfcourt more for the offense, as those are chances to scramble the defense and to turn good shots into great ones. Aldama already projects as one of those weapons, given what he’s shown as a shooter and playmaker.
When assessing Santi Aldama as the Memphis Grizzlies’ x-factor, offense will serve as the catalyst for his upside. His defense is the area that’ll serve as the magnitude of his impact.
Aldama projects as a solid rim protector, as he operates as a roamer and help defender — adding more strength should benefit in this area, as well. He’s a shaky perimeter defender. He stands too upright on the perimeter, leaving him susceptible to getting attacked on closeouts or burned on switches.
Improving as a perimeter defender makes him a more viable option for closing lineups, where mismatch-hunting is prevalent. Defending in space better, coupled with building upon his promise as a rim protector, would give the Grizzlies another option for crunch-time, allowing them to have multiple combinations to adjust with. In turn, Aldama’s skillset would be amplified with more playing time and in crucial situations.
Santi Aldama is the x-factor for the Grizzlies, because there’s intrigue into the unknown. He’s only 22 years old. He’s already showcased a legitimate leap from “fringe NBA player” to a "rotation player on a winning team.” He’s already good, but how much more room is there? Will Aldama just be a good 7th man off the bench? Or a starter? A frontcourt member that can start and close?
If you’re breaking it down to statistical benchmarks, could he inch towards becoming a 12-14 point-per-game scorer? Could he average multiple assists per game? Could he evolve into a 40% 3-point shooter?
At 22 years old, everything is on the table for Santi, because of the level of skill he’s flashed thus far.
Ahead of a big year 3 — one the summer before becoming extension-eligible — Aldama has the chance and foundation to make another leap. If he accomplishes this, he could be a dynamic x-factor for the Memphis Grizzlies, next season and beyond.
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