Xavier Tillman and further embodiment of Grizzlies basketball

Xavier Tillman embodied Memphis Grizzlies basketball with his path back into the rotation, and he could be a cog in its systematic revamp.

Last season for the Memphis Grizzlies, there may not have been a cooler subplot than Xavier Tillman Sr.’s bounce-back.

Struggling in his sophomore season and falling out of the rotation, Tillman worked to stay ready for his next opportunity by playing in 2022 Summer League and with the Memphis Hustle to start his 3rd season. Injuries to Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke opened the door for Tillman to play regular minutes, highlight his skillset, and impact winning basketball.

As Zach Kleiman said of Xavier Tillman: “Opportunity can be confused with ability.”

The journey for Xavier Tillman was so cool — to put into his words, he “went from Southaven to guarding one of the best bigs in the league.”

Traveling this path through the G League to pivotal minutes in the playoffs, Tillman demonstrated the Grizzlies culture with his professionalism, work ethic, and “stay ready” mindset. Now entering his 4th season and inching towards veteran status, his career arc sets an example for younger players on the roster vying for minutes on a perennial playoff contender.

Tillman’s emergence as a rotation piece and a key cog in the team’s injury-riddled frontcourt made the Grizzlies’ decision to opt into his team option for the 2023-24 season an easy one. The next step for Tillman — within a contract year before his first trip to unrestricted free agency — is to further embody Grizzlies basketball.

On the floor, Tillman’s role is pretty clear. Offensively, he slots into connective hub in the high post — screening, and facilitating through hitting cutters and dribble handoffs. His scoring will result from dumpoff’s in the pick-and-roll, offensive rebounds, and running the floor.

Tillman’s value shines defensively. His lack of ideal size and vertical pop from the center position isn’t ideal, but he makes up for it with his defense on the ground — if you will. And it’s his ticket to continue to further embody Grizzlies basketball and Taylor Jenkins’ vision for the system.

While Tillman doesn’t generate blocks, his contributions in the event creation department comes with creating steals. He fell in the 96th percentile among big men in steal percentage (2.1%), per Cleaning the Glass. He defends in space well for a big man due to his nimble feet and quick hands, staying active in anticipation for decisions off the drive.

Probably the most shining example of Tillman’s defensive value comes with his versatility in defensive assignments. Just within the last few months of the regular season, he was tasked with guarding Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Kawhi Leonard, and Anthony Davis. In the playoffs specifically, he alternated between matchups with LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

Tall task for just about any defender, but Tillman excelled in this role. Per the NBA’s matchup data, Tillman held Davis to 15/36 shooting (41.7%) on 366.7 partial possessions and James to 10/26 shooting (38.5%) on 108.5 partial possessions.

Though technically an undersized 5, his frame allows him to be an asset when guarding opposing frontcourt members — regardless of positional archetype. At 240 pounds, he utilizes and absorbs physicality well to not allow bigger bodies to gain any sort of leverage getting to their spot. When defending big wings or in switch situations, his lateral quickness is a benefit, but he’s also smart and active in space. He doesn’t fall for a ball-handler’s dance moves; he tangos with them with active hands and footwork. Because of these specific traits within his defensive skillset, his matchup often defers to settling for jumpers or fadeaways.

Tillman carrying over his star-stopping performance could be an integral part of a Grizzlies defense that’s looking to switch more often. Of the Grizzlies’ healthy (non-Jaren) big men, Tillman is the most equipped to switch and defend on the perimeter. In addition, he helps unlock the Grizzlies’ biggest defensive tactic: Jaren Jackson as a roamer. Over the last several months of the season, in Steven Adams’ absence, he took on the primary big man assignment (the Jokic’s, Embiid’s, AD’s of the world), so Jackson can roam — allowing him to help over and swat shots into oblivion, to cover more space, and to switch among the perimeter.

Tillman’s role within this system could pave the way for him to play big minutes in pivotal moments over the course of the season and the playoffs — as he’s a big man that embodies the type of scheme they want to deploy going forward.

The next step for Tillman — in his progression as a player, and in fitting along the Grizzlies’ desired improvements in their path towards contention — comes within the offensive side of the floor. Tillman does good things offensively — rolls to the rim hard, possesses nice touch on his floater, and serves as a connector as a high-post presence — but he’s also limited. As a 6’8” big man, he isn’t incredibly explosive, which could lead to his shot getting blocked. He also doesn’t have the outside shooting to make up for it either.

When comparing among the other Grizzlies’ big men, lineups with the Grizzlies starters (Morant, Bane, Brooks, Jackson) scored the least points per 100 possessions with Tillman alongside this quartet:

• Tillman + starters: 106.8 offensive rating, -0.6 NET rating (310 possessions)

• Adams + starters: 114.9 offensive rating, +11.9 NET (276 possessions)

• Clarke + starters: 122.9 offensive rating, +24.6 NET (118 possessions)

(Per Cleaning the Glass)

Granted, Brooks in place of a better floor spacer could alleviate the spacing concerns a bit — whether it’s Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, Ziaire Williams, David Roddy, or Jake LaRavia. For what it’s worth, in the minuscule sample (35 regular season possessions) of Ja/Bane/Trip/X lineups without Brooks, the Grizzlies scored a blistering 140 points per 100 possessions.

However, there are areas Tillman could improve in on the offensive end. Outside shooting is the obvious one. Tillman doesn’t project as a total shooting liability, as his mechanics are pretty solid, and he shot nearly 34% on his 65 three-point attempts (1.1 per game) in his rookie season. Sure, ability and efficiency should be accounted for, but can he develop a willingness to let it fly? Even shooting 2 a game could open more optionality for his offensive role, making the scout on his game less predictable. Instead of rolling in screen situations, he could fade out to the top of the key. He could give Jackson or Aldama some possessions as the high-post big and spot up in the corner.

Tillman letting it fly probably won’t scorch earth, but it could open the floor up a bit and help the Grizzlies’ half-court offense become less predictable and more efficient. And he doesn’t even have to become a consistent 3-point weapon. Even an elbow jumper would be fine, which could coincide with improvement as a foul shooter (55.1% from the line) — though his foul numbers don’t offer positive evidence of Tillman expanding his range.

Tillman averaged 3.2 assists in the playoffs after tallying a career-high 1.6 assists per game in the regular season. Most of his dimes will come within the flow of the offense — dribble handoff’s and split actions. Hitting open shooters or cutters for extra pass — whether it’s as a high-post hub, or off offensive-rebounds — will be other avenues for Tillman to tap into his playmaking potential.

The Grizzlies will continue seeking improvement in half-court offense, and Tillman’s progression within it will be key for the outlook of his role next season.

Xavier Tillman has had a great 2023, and now he’s entering the most pivotal season of his career. After the Grizzlies opted into his team option this summer, he’s due to enter unrestricted free agency in 2024. It’ll be interesting to see how the Grizzlies monitor it, as they have $24M tied into Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke’s contracts, as well as Santi Aldama becoming extension-eligible — not to mention, Memphis inching towards the second apron for 2024-25.

Nonetheless, improving offensively — specifically as a shooter — along with his defensive tools could make Xavier Tillman a fascinating free agent, not just for the Grizzlies but across the league.

Xavier Tillman’s re-emergence came at a pivotal point this past season, and he’ll be set to enter the 2023-24 campaign with a clear role in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt. As the Grizzlies continue to revamp its system on both sides of the ball, Tillman could be a player that embodies the phase 2 of Memphis Grizzlies basketball.

---

All September, for Childhood Cancer Awareness Month, anyone that subscribes or refers a friend to SubTsakalidis will be entered to win 2 tickets to the Memphis Grizzlies, Denver Nuggets game on Friday October 27th. All proceeds go to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.