Pros and Cons of possible opening night starting lineups
The Memphis Grizzlies have an opening for the 5th starter for the opening night of the regular season. Who are the options, and what could factor into Taylor Jenkins' decision?
For the 4th consecutive season, the Memphis Grizzlies won’t have its go-to starting lineup for opening night. Ja Morant’s 25-game suspension leaves an opening in the starting lineup — as it stands, and fingers crossed, it remains just 1 open spot. How Taylor Jenkins approaches the 5th starter for opening night will be one of training camp’s biggest storylines.
Presumably, it’ll go to a wing, as Marcus Smart is expected to run the offense in Morant’s absence. That leaves us with these possibilities:
Luke Kennard
Ziaire Williams
David Roddy
John Konchar
Jake LaRavia
Sure, there could some curveballs — Santi Aldama and Vince Williams Jr. in this category. Nonetheless, those aforementioned players are likely to start opening night, and perhaps the first 25 games of the season.
Let’s weigh the pros and cons here.
Luke Kennard
Pros:
Kennard is simply the most impactful player. He elevated the Grizzlies offense significantly last year, as they scored 13 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
Deploying another elite shooter alongside Desmond Bane changes the calculus of the floor with spacing and gravity. The floor spacing should give the Bane or Smart plenty of room to operate in the pick-and-roll, and Jackson to work downhill or around the post.
Cons:
Moving Kennard into the starting lineup would weaken the bench, though staggering masks a spotty 2nd unit. We witnessed a similar situation play out last year where the superior player (Clarke) stayed off the bench in the wake of Jackson’s absence. Does Jenkins consider that route again?
Kennard also leaves them pretty small 1-3, and he already isn’t a great defender. At that point, they will have to see if Smart, Jackson, and Adams can make up for Kennard’s defensive woes (the answer is likely yes).
The skinny: Kennard is the sensible option. We could be making a whole lot of hoopla over what’s really an easy decision. Even if Kennard doesn’t start though, expect this lineup to be a key fixture this season, especially as a closing lineup in those 1st 25 games.
Ziaire Williams
Pros:
We’ve seen Williams look more comfortable as a starter than a reserve during his time with the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have had team success with him in the starting lineup — 23-12 (23-10, if omitting regular season finale rest games) the past 2 years.
Offensively, he’s more of a play finisher as a starter — spotting up in the corner, or crashing along the baseline for lobs.
Defense is what’s intriguing for Williams as a starter. The size up front between him, Jackson, and Adams is a factor. More importantly, he can take on the opposing team’s 2nd perimeter option, which would allow Bane to “hide” defensively. It’s not that Bane benefits here because of anything with his defensive ability. However, it expends some of his energy for the offensive end, where he’s expecting a bigger responsibility this season.
Cons:
Which Ziaire Williams will show up? If he’s closer to the level he was his rookie season, it’s nearly a no-brainer. He’s a playoff rotation player at that caliber. However, if he can’t bounce back and looks more like the version he was last season, he may be out of the rotation rather quickly. Consistency is key, and health could help. When it comes to comparing ceilings and floors, the gap between those outcomes for Williams is the widest of the group — even if he has the highest ceiling.
The skinny: If the Grizzlies roll with an option that’s not Luke Kennard, it may be Ziaire Williams. He provides great size and defensive upside at the 3 spot, and there’s familiarity with him in the starting lineup. It could also give him a confidence boost en route to a bounce-back season.
David Roddy
Pros:
David Roddy closed his rookie year strong. His jumper was more confident, he found his way to basket in the halfcourt and in transition, and he provided good postseason minutes. He also had solid defensive moments last season against some of the league’s bigger names — Zion Williamson and LeBron James stand out here. He fits a Grizzlies’ desire in the system with his switching abilities, as he could realistically switch up or down positions because of his frame. It wouldn’t be surprising to see his confidence continue into this season with a bigger role.
Cons:
I wonder if he could capitalize on spacing the same way he does in the second unit. Steven Adams is a paint-bound center, and Jaren Jackson Jr.’s game of the dribble and in the post are focal points as well — as he doesn’t fire from 3 as often as he did earlier in his career. That doesn’t discount the fact Marcus Smart is a mediocre shooter, too. With that, it leaves questions about if Roddy’s advantage creation and live-dribble attack could bode well next to these two big men. He’s an inconsistent driver, because his size could affect his elevation in traffic. Would it be the best use of Roddy’s abilities to start him?
The Skinny: Roddy strikes me as a change-of-pace player, creating chaos off the bench with his scoring abilities. He’d better suited for serving as an interchangeable forward with Santi Aldama — a more frequent floor-spacer — as well as some sort of combination of Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, and Marcus Smart.
Jake LaRavia
Pros:
At 6’8”, LaRavia provides great size as a connector on either side of the floor — keeping the offense flowing, while creating events defensively. His best asset here is his outside shooting within the context of the starting lineup. He won’t command as much attention as his teammates and will be left open, where he’s rather automatic (41.3% with the Hustle and 42.9% on the main roster on unguarded catch-and-shoot 3’s, per Synergy Sports).
Cons:
LaRavia has flashes as a connector, a player that could be more than a shooter. There just isn’t a giant sample of his defense and non-shooting offense in the NBA context, given the injury bug that hit him and his time in the G League. It’s not a knock or a doubt in his ability to contribute in more ways beyond shooting; it serves more as an unknown commodity, even with belief in his flashes there.
The Skinny: LaRavia may be an under-the-radar option for this conversation, since he provides outside shooting and solid connectivity at optimal size. Outside shooting will serve as the ticket to playing time within the wings, and LaRavia could be a strong play here if he’s firing with accuracy and confidence during preseason.
John Konchar
Pros:
The Grizzlies had a +7.1 net rating with John Konchar on the floor last year. Though his game isn’t flashy — unless he’s obliterating a dunk attempt into the glass on Anthony Davis — he gets the job done. He generates stocks, covers space defensively, has a nose for rebounds, and doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s a great innings eater for this team for these reasons.
Cons:
Konchar has to make up for low usage with outside shooting. He has one of the lowest usage rates among wings in the league, and his shooting tailed off in 2023. In a lineup with Smart, Bane, Jackson, and Adams, floor spacing and offensive gravity are pivotal. Konchar pairing good — and frequent — outside shooting is key for him next season.
Defensively, it’s not much of a con because of his defensive event creation, but he’d leave the Grizzlies’ perimeter rather small. The coaching staff though may decide that the combination of size and defensive prowess in the frontcourt mitigate it.
The skinny: John Konchar wouldn’t be the flashiest name here. He doesn’t provide the most upside of the group, but he’s one of the safest bets to hold down the fort for the first 25 games of the season. There’s evidence of good outputs with Jitty on the floor.
Though it’s not leading to a permanent starting spot, there could be dividends and revelations made. We could have a clearer understanding of what a (healthy) rotation looks like for the 2023-24 season. It could also serve as an understanding of how a young player has improved, and as a launchpad for a confidence boost and a leap into the new year. Nonetheless, the Memphis Grizzlies certainly have options for the 5th starter on opening night next season.
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