Mailbag: Grizzlies playoff outlook, NBA draft, March Madness

Taking questions on the Memphis Grizzlies' playoff chances and March Madness for this mailbag.

I ran a mailbag that’s more of an annual thing — if I should do this more often, let me know. March is such a fun time to be a basketball fan — playoff basketball is approaching, conference tournaments and March Madness is on the horizon, and it sets stuff up for the NBA draft.

So why not discuss it all?

Let’s jump into it. Thank you to those that reached out with questions.

This is what Tim is referring to — from the Daily Memphian’s Drew Hill:

“The energy is not there,” Aldama said. “Indiana scored 50 against us in the second quarter. The Spurs scored 46. I could sit here and tell you that the energy is there, but it’s clearly not.

“We are just letting teams punk us every single night. We make up for it and hope the fourth (quarter) flips our way.

“We can’t play that way. We are not that team that needs a little bit of luck. We normally set the tone, and we haven’t been doing that. It’s not acceptable.”

So to answer Tim’s question and to address his assumptions — I don’t believe the Grizzlies have a leadership problem. At all. Absences shouldn’t also remove leadership responsibilities from a player, especially a star. No one knows what happens behind closed doors, except for the team.

However, the Big 3 has done a great job of taking the leadership mantle since the 2023 season. They lead in their own styles, and the team feeds off it. It gets lost in their age, but they’re veterans. Those three guys are closer to year 10 than their year 1 or 2. Crazy, right? Time flies.

Then Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard are veterans that lead with experience — they’ve been there before and are professional about it. Santi Aldama seems ready to take on more of a veteran role as well, as someone who’s not afraid to tell it how it is. By the way, Tim, thank you for calling out Santi’s Olympic experience — I feel like that gets slept on when discussing playoff projection, he’s going to be so good.

But yeah ultimately, the team goes as far as the Big 3 takes them, and follows their lead.

I’m not remotely worried about leadership going into the playoffs. Again, fans are making assumptions off what they observe, and can tend to project their feelings into them.

The team’s temperament and composure through this stretch of adversity is an encouraging sign heading into the home stretch of the postseason.

I’m still rather optimistic about the Grizzlies’ playoff chances. Maybe not as optimistic as I was a month ago, but still high on their odds for a run.

The expectation is to at least make it past the first round, regardless of matchup. Further on, the Thunder is monstrous for any team in the West this year. The Nuggets still have the best player in the world and the altitude advantage. The Lakers getting Luka Doncic to pair with LeBron James has changed the entire calculus of the Western Conference.

Regardless of what’s going on in the West, the Grizzlies are in the tier of teams that could realistically make the Conference Finals. I know that possibility is lost in translation with their flaws — the defense has slipped since the new year, and they turn the ball over a lot. However, aside from OKC, every team has a flaw that can be seen as a hindrance towards a big run — people that watch their teams the most just think theirs glares the brightest because of their exposure to them.

At the end of the day, it ties back to the Big 3, and if all 3 of those guys are cooking, they can beat just about anyone in a 7-game series. Ja Morant is a historic playoff riser for his age, and Desmond Bane has won them a playoff series before as well. We haven’t seen this version of Jaren Jackson Jr. in the playoffs before. This also hinges on Ja being Ja.

Yeah, they’re rather young and have variance alongside them. Zach Edey will have his playoff questions, but Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke have proven they can play 25-30 minutes a night in big games, while also being sensational fits next to Jaren Jackson Jr. Jaylen Wells is young, but who knows how he performs — his defensive versatility will be important. Even then, they have an offense/defense duo behind him with Vince Williams Jr. and Luke Kennard.

With that said, while the Grizzlies have weaknesses to polish — and matchups are key too — but they still have the upside of a Western Conference Finals team, and should be a group that’s in the second round.

I just want whatever is best for Ja Morant — what helps him be healthy and ready for the playoffs. Is it this type of strategy? Is it playing consecutive games to get into a groove? I’m not sure. I just want what’s best for Ja’s health and mojo.

So a series of questions that leads to a Segway to a different set of topics.

If I’m Taylor Jenkins, I’m simply getting ready for the playoffs. To keep things the same, the offense works, and they should continue to work through the bugs in the system, because it offers a competitive advantage with its pace and motion (player and ball movement). Another thing to keep the same — unless he has a terrible, uncharacteristic game — Santi Aldama should be in the closing lineup. He’s a real dribble-pass-shoot 7-footer, and he’s a guy that can shoot over closeouts and attack them off the dribble. That’s a real weapon for the rest of the season and postseason.

My big thing to change is managing the Big 3’s minutes in the 4th quarter better. I’m not saying play them the full 12 minutes — though I’m not against it. However, these weird stretches where 2 of them are off the floor for a minute or two breather can just be a real momentum killer. If Jenkins wants to go for 4th-quarter bursts, he needs 2 of Morant-Bane-Jackson on the floor, especially at this juncture of the season.

For Cinderella, I’m going to go with Drake. ESPN gives them a 70% chance to make the tournament. Their head coach, Ben McCollum, was at a D2 school last year and essentially took his team to Drake with him. They’re currently 27-3. They have the ingredients to make noise in the tournament and become a darling for the country this March.

For favorite prospect outside the lottery, I’m going to look at this consensus board I'm tracking for a future project (draft guide hint!) — it’s Jase Richardson out of Michigan State. The son of Jason Richardson has emerged as Michigan State’s most important player. Since becoming a starter in February, he’s averaging 16.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists on 51.7-37.1-82.9 shooting splits. While he needs to show he can be a true point guard as a 6’3” combo, he’s remarkable efficient, always in the right place at the right time, and has some real shot creation flashes. It wouldn’t shock me if he’s a consensus lottery guy after March Madness. He might be this year’s Jared McCain.

Sion James from Duke.

For starters, I’m going to go with the team that’s likely to have a lot of eyes this March Madness. In addition, I’m significantly higher on James opposed to the consensus. Scaling from a go-to role at Tulane, he’s fit in seamlessly at Tulane as their de facto point guard.

As a 6’5”, 205 pound perimeter player, he’s built like a tank — leveraging his strength into real positional versatility defensively. Offensively, he’s shooting the ball efficiently — has shot 39.5% from 3 the past two seasons, although low volume at 2.7 attempts per game. He’s also averaged 4.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and 1.5 steals in his 5-year collegiate career. Physical wings that can distribute the ball, shoot, rebound, and create defensive events. He’s ultra efficient (10.4 box plus/minus this season).

The Grizzlies lean towards getting immediate contributors in the draft. With James, he can be on a two-way next year and easily become a future conversion candidate.

So the Grizzlies traded away this year’s first-round pick in the Marcus Smart salary dump. While it seems rather unideal to bring another rookie next season, they do have a great success rate trading into the 30th pick. But hey, maybe they find a guy they want to trade up for early in the second-round in this range.

For this, I can roll with just about anything, including the wing. There are a lot of draft-and-stash candidates from the big man spot too — Mohammed Feye and Johann Grunloh. The archetype is more centered around physicality and athleticism. The best defenses in the league typically have these traits — looking at Minnesota, Oklahoma City, Boston, Houston, and the Clippers. The quantity of players with the reputation of physicality gives more leeway with the officials. I wouldn’t mind fortifying their two-way depth with those type of 3-and-D physical wings for the future.

I saw Baba Miller a few weeks ago when FAU played Memphis. I haven’t seen him on draft boards, and I’m not sure he’ll be a two-way guy. However, his game seems fit for the G League — as a 6’11” tweener big that’s long, and can leverage his size on both sides of the floor. He’s made good strides this year and should build upon it by returning to FAU.

Again using the bubble watch article — and I’m sure Rich, who does great draft work, can rattle off more names. Ordered by probability of making the tournament:

• PJ Haggerty, Memphis: should return to Memphis next year for NIL, but big physical guard that touches the paint at will

• Donovan Dent, New Mexico: small guard but a blur that can generate offense and add defensive pressure

• Max Shulga, VCU: scalable wing with physical defense, good playmaking, and consistent shooting

• Miles Byrd, San Diego State: monster defensive playmaker that can facilitate offense and crash the glass — needs to improve as a shooter and finisher

• Nique Clifford, Colorado State: Swiss-army knife wing that fills up the stat sheet

It’s more of a system/playstyle thing. For specific cases, Broome actually gets a first-round grade for me, and trends that way with consensus. Finding a backup big that can protect the rim, score, rebound, and pass is rough.

Fredette was ahead of his time, although the margin for error for small shooters that can’t defend is small.

Mark Sears is just small, as his draft stock took a hit.

Luka Garza is more of a defense in space thing. His offense outweighed his defensive woes, because of defensive 3-second rule. His defense is too detrimental for consistent big minutes.

I’m an Ole Miss Rebel, but the answer is Memphis. Penny Hardaway can coach. Dain Dainja is a problem, and PJ Haggerty can be the best player in a game on most nights.

Detroit is such a fun team. They could be a top-3 team in the East next year, but the Cavaliers, Celtics, Knicks, and even the Bucks are on their own plane right now. They’ll crash the party soon though.

I trust Golden State, because they have the ultimate playoff alphas in Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. Minnesota may be the best equipped up and down the roster to strike fear in an early matchup, and they just went to the Western Conference Finals.

Thanks for asking questions. This was a lot of fun. Let’s get ready for some good hoops down the stretch.

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