Grizzlies: The truths, misconceptions, and adjustments about minutes and rotations
A lot is made about the Grizzlies' minutes and rotations. Key truths exist in this discussion, and misconceptions are shown through its layers. The important thing is to remain flexible and adaptable.
The Memphis Grizzlies tend to go deeper in their bench than most teams. It’s no secret. Taylor Jenkins has usually trended towards a 9-10 man rotation since becoming the Grizzlies’ head coach. This number has usually fallen between 10 and 11 this season, with an emphasis on staying fresh to play at their desired pace.
The results speak for themselves, as they’re top-5 in both Offensive and Defensive Rating. They’re also 3rd in the Western Conference. They’re also 11 games above .500.
However, the reception is a mixed bag, usually depending on the results. When they win big, it’s all about the depth of the team. When they lose big games, the depth isn’t enough, and the rotations are horrible.
Praises and criticisms are fair. While either one may reveals truths, you have to peel back the layers that play a factor in the rotations and minutes. Within them though is the importance of flexibility and adaptability.
Truths
The Grizzlies do play deeper into their bench than most teams. For context, the Grizzlies have 9 players averaging 20 or more minutes per game this season, tied with the Dallas Mavericks. Obviously the number can be skewed with injuries — players being out and returning to normal minutes, and others stepping up and filling in minutes of absences. Ultimately, the Grizzlies are deep and leverage it to their advantage.
The Grizzlies’ stars do not play as much as their counterparts.
Jaren Jackson Jr.: 29.4 minutes per game
Desmond Bane: 29.3
Ja Morant: 28.4
Where does that fall among the league rankings?
Jaren Jackson Jr.: 89th
Desmond Bane: 91st
Ja Morant: not qualified for basketball-reference’s league minutes per game dashboard, but technically 100th
Notable players that average more minutes per game than them: Malik Monk, Dillon Brooks, Rui Hachimura, and Christian Braun — stars excluded. Having the team’s best 3 players under 30 minutes a night is a fair criticism. It’s a stars league, and they should play a noticeable bulk of minutes each night.
And the final truth, the rotations and minutes have had their hand in a few games this season. In the second loss of the season, Jaren Jackson was a +15 in a 3-point loss but only played 24 minutes, though coming off a minutes restriction. Against Dallas in the final IST game, the Big 3 all played under 32 minutes, while the Mavs had Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and PJ Washington on the floor for over 35 minutes — a similar situation happened in the Clippers’ loss. In a few losses, most evident in their losses to the Rockets, Taylor Jenkins had Morant and Jackson sit for a quick breather for a few minutes in the 4th quarter, but it might have been detrimental in maintaining momentum and the lead.
Aside from the stars, there have been a few minutes and rotations qualms revolving around Zach Edey here and there, but nothing glaringly concerning. Sprinkled in here and there, Taylor Jenkins has rolled with an all-bench lineup. Against some teams, it’s totally fine, but it shouldn’t be deployed against opposing playoff teams.
All of these things can be true, but…
Misconceptions
… there are misconceptions, nuances, within these truths that go unnoticed in the criticism.
The Grizzlies’ depth has been a bit overanalyzed lately, mainly in terms of the “strength of numbers,” per se. Yes, you want to rely on stars over depth. However, there’s beauty in optionality.
For starters, the depth deserves credit. The non-trio lineups have actually done well this year — and have been a bit of a necessity due to injuries with Bane and Morant. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies have outscored opponents by 9.3 points per 100 possessions (117.7 offensive rating and 108.4 defensive rating). It’s not a permanent recipe, but it’s proven to be reliable in shorthanded situations.
The major key of the Grizzlies’ depth is the ability to adapt on a nightly basis to identify who has it, and who doesn’t over the course of the game. For example, against Houston, Jake LaRavia and Brandon Clarke found a groove and played 21 and 24 minutes while Scotty Pippen, Luke Kennard, and Santi Aldama all played fewer than 17 minutes. On Wednesday against the Spurs, it flipped as Kennard and Aldama were catalysts and were rewarded with 30 and 27 minutes, respectively — while LaRavia and Clarke played under 11 minutes.
Within this optionality leads to flexibility with closing lineups, as it shines more in the frontcourt where they could pair Jaren Jackson Jr. with Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, or Santi Aldama down the stretch — and it fits.
Yeah, other teams may have a better top 7 or 8 on paper, but don’t possess nearly as much lineup flexibility. The Grizzlies’ depth is rock solid, and has been a meaningful reason why they’re in the top-3 of the West even with a grocery list of injuries.
Secondly, the minutes for Jackson, Morant, and Bane are low in comparison to All-Star counterparts. Let’s add some context though. Easy one to point out, especially for Bane and Morant, is the injuries. The sample includes games they left earlier due to injury, and the ramp-up “return to play” process. It’s going to cause a slight decrease in minutes. For Jackson, foul trouble could be a hindrance to significant minutes as well.
In addition, the Grizzlies have 23 games decided by double-digits (19-4 record). That’s 56% of their games. When that significant of a sample exists, and within the data are games where they play fewer minutes than usual, it’s going to alter the averages. Let’s take a look…
In double digit-games:
Jaren Jackson Jr.: roughly 27 minutes per game (22 games)
Desmond Bane: roughly 26 minutes per game (16 games)
Ja Morant: roughly 26 minutes per game (11 games)
In single-digit games:
Jaren Jackson Jr.: roughly 31 minutes per game (17 games)
Desmond Bane: roughly 31 minutes per game (16 games)
Ja Morant: roughly 30 minutes per game (11 games)
Even if this number doesn’t look ideal, it’s trended better the last several weeks. Since Christmas, Jaren Jackson Jr. has averaged 33.8 minutes, and Desmond Bane is at 31.8 minutes per game. And in these super decisive games, do you want to play them longer to hit an arbitrary minutes number? You can, but there are layers of gamesmanship and strategic rest within this trend.
With the low minutes distribution, fans may worry about how it looks in the playoffs, a criticism of Taylor Jenkins as a branch in the Mike Budenholzer tree. However, Jenkins has shown to have the willingness to tighten his rotations and increase minutes in the postseason.
In 2021-22:
(Worth noting that Jaren Jackson was in notorious foul trouble against Minnesota — fouled out in 2 games, and had 5 or more fouls in 3 of them).
In 2022-23:
I’m not worried about playoff minutes distribution.
Most importantly, the rotations and minutes have only been a symptom, not diagnosis of late-game execution in its losses. The achilles heel in these losses — the ones against Western Conference playoff teams glaring the most — is the turnovers. They’re 29th in turnovers per game (17.0) and in opponent points off turnovers (21.7), and 26th in turnover percentage (16.2). That’s more impactful than rotations and minutes. Injuries play a part too; at a point, your absences are heavily felt when playing shorthanded. Slow starts have been a factor, too. And then you have nights like this that happened against the Kings at the beginning of the month — where your recipe falls into place, but it somehow doesn’t cook up a win:
While the truths pop off the most, it’s important to pull back the layers into these trends.
Adjustments
Two adjustments stick out in this week’s slate of games.
To start with the Rockets game, I already pointed out the role player minutes distribution. The trio played star minutes — Morant at 37, Bane at 34, and Jackson at 30 (due to foul trouble). However, a noticeable trend emerged in this game: fourth-quarter rotations..
Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant started the 4th quarter. Bane entered at the 8-minute mark, where now the trio is on the floor. The Grizzlies were up 10 at that point. Morant went to the bench at the 7:30 mark, and Jackson joined him at 7 minutes — where the Grizzlies had an 8-point lead. Once Jackson came in at the 5:57 mark, and Morant following at the 4:57 point, the Grizzlies’ lead evaporated to 1.
From there, the Rockets gained critical momentum for a win, another crushing blow against a West playoff team for Memphis. Taylor Jenkins did right with his minutes allocation, but the distribution was a bit costly. Yes, the bench has to perform at a level where they can sustain decent leads. Yes, with the team’s pace, substitution patterns for bursts is a function of the system. Down the stretch though, they have to play their best guys on the floor. They can pass through the 1st 3 quarters with 1 of the trio on the floor, but they need at least 2 of the 3 stars on the floor in winning time.
Two days later, the quick adjustment was made.
To start the 4th quarter: Bane and Jackson were in the game with a 6-point lead. With 7:27 left in the 4th, Morant came in for Bane. By the 4:50 mark, the whole big 3 was in and finished the game, leading to a 35-27 4th quarter en route to a 14-point win. It was a great strategic adjustment for Taylor Jenkins.
These two games don’t outweigh significant data, and this isn’t to undermine other games where the rotations and minutes distribution have been great or worrisome. However, it serves as a possible critical point that leads to a crucial trend for playoff success: adaptability.
Taylor Jenkins is showcasing his ability to adapt with his rotations and minutes. Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and Ja Morant are playing more minutes. In addition, instead of sticking to a rotation around the trio, Jenkins is rolling with grooves, even if it means shrinking someone’s minutes in the second half — that’s a tactic I’ve been an advocate for with these deep rotations, use it as a way to find out who has it that night. The biggest thing though was that 4th-quarter adjustment from the Spurs game. He laid out the patterns in a way where two of Morant, Jackson, and Bane were in the game at all times. From there, they produced, found a rhythm, and led the charge in a big road win against a Western Conference playoff hopeful.
With a tougher path the rest of the way — 3rd-most difficult remaining schedule — it’s important to find a winning recipe with this depth, especially with guys like Marcus Smart, Vince Williams and GG Jackson returning to make rotation decisions even more difficult. Along the path, continuity is paramount, mainly with the stars staying healthy.
Nonetheless, the Grizzlies leveraging its depth around its stars is proving to be integral in their system, but the best way to maximize it is the willingness to adapt. And through all the truths and misconceptions around the minutes and rotation, Taylor Jenkins’ willingness to adapt will determine how far it could take them the rest of the way. The Rockets game with its minutes allocation and the Spurs one with its 4th-quarter minutes distribution served as good barometers for depth flexibility.
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