Cole Anthony buyout and critical margins for small guards, combo guards
The Memphis Grizzlies' buyout with Cole Anthony is another move that has shown the decreased value in smaller/combo guards. The margins for this archetype have become smaller, yet critical.
The Memphis Grizzlies reached a buyout with Cole Anthony this past weekend, opening the pathway to renegotiate and extend Jaren Jackson Jr. on a new contract — and to land Cam Spencer on a four-year deal as well.
Ultimately, it’s a net-neutral move. When the Grizzlies made the trade, it didn’t dawn on me that Anthony’s contract would be how they cleared cap space to extend Jackson. I thought he could be the piece that could get them another rotation player. Is it disappointing that wasn’t the case? Sure. However, locking Jackson into a long-term deal is way more impactful and important than pretty much any player they could’ve traded Anthony for. No — realistic — external move pays more dividends than that move. The Grizzlies also didn’t trade an asset to move off Anthony’s money either. It’s not a move that garners headlines, but it’s far from a bad one either.
Anthony is a fine player. He’s only 25 years old. He can score the ball, he brings intensity, and he’s a good rebounder for a guard. He wasn’t going to play ahead of Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., or the newly acquired Ty Jerome. His size and skillset hinder him from playing alongside either of them. He’s going to a situation in Milwaukee where he can earn a starting point guard role, play alongside a top-five player in the world, and compete to go deep in a weaker, open Eastern Conference.
With that said, a trend has popped up for me this offseason, and it’s the league becoming lower on smaller guards. Cole Anthony and Jordan Clarkson were bought out — the latter was in trade rumors for quite some time. Collin Sexton was traded with a second-round pick for an aging, slower big man whose role in today’s NBA has faded — although I’m bullish on how Sexton can play an instrumental role in steering Charlotte in the right direction.
The decreased value in smaller guards around the league explicitly suggests how thin the margins are for this archetype. They cannot afford a reality where their strengths only register from “pretty good” to even “slightly great.” They have to either be offensive engines that can touch the paint and handle primary responsibilities, ball-hawking point-of-attack defenders that could generate turnovers, mistake-free floor generals, or knockdown shooters. Illustrated deeper in a study from a few weeks ago on the rising archetype of “combo guard stoppers,” smaller guards have to possess an elite skill to have value in today’s NBA.
So I built upon the previous study’s report and added more guards that are 6’5” or shorter.
First, some defensive stats — on-ball defense and off-ball activity.
Creation — pull-up shooting, passing, and turnover numbers
Shooting accuracy and volume
Advanced metrics
Above, I mentioned different qualities a combo guard must possess in order to have good value in today’s NBA. This group falls in the following buckets.
Stoppers: perimeter isolation defense grade>=80%, matchup difficulty >= 80%, stop% >= 2%
Caruso, Nembhard, Mitchell, Payton II, Dunn, Ellis, Pippen, Suggs, Alvardo, Cason Wallace, Alexander-Walker
TO creators: STL%>=2%, Deflections per 100 possessions >=3, italicized are players with BLK% >= 1.5
Caruso, Dunn, Ellis, Cason, Pippen, Payton Jr., Suggs, McConnell, Jerome, Alvarado, Divincenzo, Podziemski, McBride, Nembhard
Derrick White is a statistical outlier for both of these categories, but his perimeter isolation defense and steal percentages just miss the query. He operated more as a chaser defender next to Jrue Holiday. However, his block percentage and deflections per 100 possessions were both greater than three. Had to point out since he’s a notable omission here.
Primary actors: on-ball%>=25%, dribble jumpers attempted >= 150, sort by eFG% on dribble jumpers
Jerome, Poole, Sexton, Herro, Simons, McConnell, Reaves, Derrick White, Keyonte, Monk, Anthony, Suggs
Efficient passers: AST% >= 20%, potential assists per 100 possessions >= 13, TO% <= 12%, AST eFG% >= 60, Assisted points per 75 >= 13
Jerome, Quickley, Herro, Jones, Simons
Knockdown shooters: 3PT>= 40, C&S >= 40, rTS>= 0, sort by 3PA/100
Pritchard, Jones, Jerome, Kennard, Ellis, Sexton (only 1 with C&S <= 41)
Offensive Catch-All >= 1 (Italicize Overall Catch-All >= 1) — average of all advanced metrics used
Jerome, Herro, Pritchard, Reaves, Derrick White, Quickley, Thomas, Sexton, Coby White, McCollum
Defensive Catch All >= 1 (Italicize Overall Catch-All >= 1) — average of all advanced metrics used
Caruso, Dunn, Ellis, Derrick White, Podziemski, Suggs, Pippen, Cason Wallace
After compiling this together, the following players were in zero queries or just one.
0 queries: Jordan Clarkson, Jaden Hardy, D’Angelo Russell
1 query: Cole Anthony, Luke Kennard, Cam Thomas, CJ McCollum, Miles McBride, Malik Monk, Coby White, Jordan Poole
So overarching question — what does this all mean for smaller/combo guards?
The players who trend overwhelming positive in the catch-all metrics either excel in their categorization (Alex Caruso, Austin Reaves, Tyler Herro, Brandin Podziemski, Kris Dunn, Immanuel Quickley), or thrive in several categories (Ty Jerome, Payton Pritchard, Keon Ellis, Derrick White).
In addition, if a guard falls under just one category, they must be elite with it. Luke Kennard is a deadeye three-point shooter. Cam Thomas is an offensive supernova. Jordan Poole is one of the game’s best live-dribble scorers.
From there, different questions will revolve around several topics. One is in regards to resource allocation — essentially gauging at what percentage of the salary cap is a team comfortable with for that player. Another one is centered around the role the player can, or has to, play for your team. The unideal answers could cap a team’s ceiling and draw questions over the player’s value — look at what’s happening with Cam Thomas’ restricted free agency right now, or at the Miami Heat’s ceiling with Tyler Herro as their go-to option. Watch for how it plays out for Coby White and Malik Monk with negotiations and decisions around their next contracts, barring a leap.
The overall synopsis: the more proficient a guard is in these skills — or the more categories they pop up in — the more effective and valuable they become. Players like Cole Anthony and Jordan Clarkson were bought out, because their strengths are not proficient enough in relation to how much they were making — both within the non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
I wanted to bring this up not to speak lowly on Cole Anthony, but to highlight the small margins for guards, the Grizzlies’ guard situation around Ja Morant, and the effect this trend creates around my scouting process.
Already showcasing the small margins for guards, the Grizzlies have two guards in the fold that have multiple facets in which they can add value around this core.
Scotty Pippen Jr.’s value shined brightest in the playoffs, where he showcased reliable shot-making chops. The core of his game centers around his defensive pressure. He hounds his matchups all 94 feet and possesses the anticipation to create cycle opportunities — two key traits that enable lineup combinations with him and Ja, despite the size concerns. His sustainability as a shooter and playmaker will go a long way in further solidifying himself as a bonafide playoff-rotation player.
Ty Jerome’s proficiency as a creator is a valuable addition to the Grizzlies. Whether Ja’s playing off the ball, or he’s not on the floor, Jerome is an efficient creator that can get his own shot off and create for others at a high clip. Even though both aren’t great defenders, lineups with Ja could work because of his size and ability to space the floor and to generate steals.
Because of their diverse skillsets, Pippen and Jerome will be key cogs to the Grizzlies’ rotation next year.
Further down the depth chart, it’ll be fascinating to see how Cam Spencer, Javon Small, and Jahmai Mashack fare within this trend over the next several seasons. Spencer is a high-feel knockdown shooter, and his defense and playmaking will determine the ceiling for his role. Small is a feisty point-of-attack defender that can also manage an offense efficiently, and he’ll have to show how reliable he can be as a live-dribble scorer and off-ball shooter. Mashack might be more of a 2-3. He’s a potential game-changer defender with surprising passing chops — his offensive output and growth could drive his impact up to a significant degree.
Finally, from a scouting process standpoint. Several players from recent draft guides will put this theory to more of a test for me. Between 2024 and 2025, I had 11 players that were 6’5” or shorter in my top 20 — my rankings and pre-draft TL;DR rationales for them.
Reed Sheppard (2 — outlier shooting, playmaking, finishing, defensive processing)
Rob Dillingham (7 — creation upside, ball-handling and passing creativity)
Jared McCain (8 — stellar shooting, underrated feel, wonderful finish)
Devin Carter (9 — +++ in the possessions game, point-of-attack defense)
Bub Carrington (17 — creation and playmaking upside)
Isaiah Collier (18 — passing and paint-touching)
VJ Edgecombe (3 — elite athleticism, defensive chops, shooting)
Jase Richardson (11 — shooting, feel, finishing, not a negative defender)
Jeremiah Fears (12 — paint-touching, passing, shot-making)
Tre Johnson (13 — movement shooter, phone-booth scorer, sneaky playmaker)
Walter Clayton Jr. (19 — winner, paint touches, live-dribble creation)
I’m monitoring how these players develop and find their roles in the league. Can Sheppard break through with his shooting and two-way playmaking? Does the mentorship of Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards help Dillingham alleviate size concerns? How do McCain and Edgecombe fit alongside Tyrese Maxey? Is Richardson maybe in the most ideal situation for his skillset in Orlando? Who wins the point guard battle long-term between Collier and Clayton Jr.?
These guards’ progression through this trend can become a key alteration in my scouting evaluation.
It’s been the common belief the NBA is scaling up in size. There’s no denying that, but there’s a conglomerate of players suggesting otherwise with their play. Heck, the Oklahoma City Thunder just won a championship with nobody on the roster listed at either 6’7” or 6’8”.
The key for guards to have a resounding impact revolves around being an offensive engine, providing creation upside, wreaking havoc in multiple ways defensively, taking care of the ball, and knocking down outside shots — the larger combination of these skills, the better. They have to be incredibly proficient in these departments, or else their value will diminish — telling from several moves made this offseason, including the Grizzlies’ buyout of Cole Anthony.
For the Grizzlies, they possess two guards that excel in several of these categories with Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome. Their respective skillsets should add immense value next to Ja Morant, and mitigate most of the impact lost when the Grizzlies’ star guard is not on the floor.
The margins may be smaller, more critical than ever for small guards or combo guards. However, their excellence in these respective skills could increase the margins for a team’s success and possible outcomes.
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