The case for Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and a new coveted archetype
There's a new coveted archetype in the NBA, and it fits along the Memphis Grizzlies' needs after the Desmond Bane trade. Could they poach a free agent target of his role in a sign-and-trade?
Everybody wants the big 3-and-D wing. There’s a reason why Mikal Bridges gets traded for five first-round picks, why OG Anunoby costs a team two players that were top-6 guys in rotations, why Dorian Finney-Smith got dealt for draft capital, and why Herb Jones, Cam Johnson, and Trey Murphy hit the trade market.
Want to find more truth in it? Just take a trip down memory lane for the Memphis Grizzlies’ trade pursuits. They reportedly offered three-four first-round picks to acquire either Bridges and Anunoby. They’ve been linked to Finney-Smith and Johnson before. Early in the next-gen era, they traded two short-term veterans and another one that didn’t want to be there for a flier on Justise Winslow.
It’s understandable. Most of these big wings offer a 3-and-D framework that seamlessly fits into any system. Depending on the prowess of their defense, they can defend on primary ball-handlers, or even opponents down from their positions. They’re a premier piece that can be leveraged in multiple ways through adjustments.
What if I told you though that there’s an emerging archetype just as valuable as the “big wing?”
Over the last several years, numerous playoff teams have deployed these valuable complementary players as combo guards. Their utility knows no limits. They can function on or off the ball, space the floor, and facilitate next actions. Most importantly, they’re defensive pests that are heinous at the point-of-attack, swarm in help defense, and wreak havoc to create turnovers.
The two past Finals winners have had multiple players that fit the mold — Alex Carson and Cason Wallace with Oklahoma City, and Derrick White and Jrue Holiday with Boston. Andrew Nembhard excelled in this role for an Indiana Pacers team that made an emphatic arrival.
I want to lay out some statistics of players of each archetype, show how they stack up against one another, and pivot to a combo guard the Grizzlies should heavily pursue in free agency.
The Data
Before diving into the data, I wanted to put together a list of players that fit either archetype that played playoff basketball recently. I trended towards players that went at least to the conference finals, except for this year’s Clippers duo of Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn — who offer a rock-solid, but not nearly as versatile, outlook.
First, some defensive stats — on-ball defense and off-ball activity.
Creation — pull-up shooting, passing, and turnover numbers
Shooting accuracy and volume
Advanced metrics
So, now let’s look at how they stack up against each other.
These are my takeaways from the data.
For starters, the defensive value of these combo guard stoppers has skyrocketed. A lot of their matchup difficulty, isolation defense, and ball screen navigation likely stems from defending primary ball-handlers (or stars) most of the time. The activity levels are off the charts as well.
With the efficiency stats, the bigger wings trend towards being the more effective offensive players, while the combo guards’ defensive metrics pop off the page — and give the slight efficiency edge here.
From a creation standpoint, Mikal Bridges and Khris Middleton give the boost for the big wings to have the edge over the combo guards, in terms of pull-up shooting. For what it’s worth, their size enables them to get their shots over their man easier. However, the combo guards add more value as playmakers. They are not only more frequent passers, but they typically draw high-value shots. That’s just a given though.
Finally, the big wings have better shooting numbers, likely due to shot difficulty and playing off-ball more. Combo guards typically let it fly more frequently.
In summary, the combo guard stopper has become an immensely valuable commodity — just as crucial as the big wing — because of the playmaking equity and defensive impact.
Numbers aside, the big wing holds tons of value because of the size and the optionality it enables. They can slide between 2-4 to go big or small. The combo guards take so much pressure off primary ball-handlers, because they can facilitate the offense and guard the opposing team’s primary option.
Which leads me to my overarching take of the Grizzlies’ offseason…
The Memphis Grizzlies need to make a run at Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker made his NBA emergence in Minnesota through the three-way trade that sent Mike Conley with him to the Twin Cities. He went from a player on his way out of the league to a key two-way player for a Timberwolves team that’s made consecutive Western Conference Finals appearances.
In two-and-a-half seasons in Minnesota, he averaged 8.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, while shooting 38.4% from three on (4.2 attempts per game) in 187 games. In the playoffs, he averaged 7.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, 2.2 assists, while shooting 33.1% from three on (4.7 attempts per game). He’s had 16 playoff games with multiple threes made, and five games with 20+ points.
Alexander-Walker is a component of Minnesota’s complicated offseason. He, Julius Randle, and Naz Reid are all free agents. The Timberwolves have a small-cap hold on him, which limits their ability to re-sign him. They also have Terrence Shannon Jr. and Jaylen Clark waiting in the wings to fill in his role. He seems like a candidate to not return to his incumbent team.
Alexander-Walker will have suitors. I’m going to give the pitch on the Grizzlies. In a situation like Memphis, he has a clearer pathway to start — and to potentially unlock a new gear to his skillset to follow the footsteps of these combo guard stoppers that have won championships.
Film and Game
I’m drawn to Alexander-Walker as a premier target because of his point-of-attack defense, secondary playmaking, and outside shooting.
Starting with his shooting, Alexander-Walker took a big leap as an outside shooter in Minnesota. He doesn’t have the pull-up shooting in his bag, but he’s a reliable catch-and-shoot player — canning roughly 40% of his spot-up three’s over the past two seasons. A trait within his shooting is his spacing and off-ball movements — WIMS (Where Is My Space) principles. When players are getting downhill, he identifies space around the perimeter to be in the best possible spot to receive the ball and let it fly.
With his playmaking, Alexander-Walker isn’t the guy that should see a heavy on-ball role. However, he’s a reliable perimeter player that can initiate the offense every now and then to get primary ball-handlers in different spots where they can attack. His value though will be from attacking closeouts and making reads against a tilted defense.
Finally, the good stuff. His defense.
Alexander-Walker causes mayhem at the point of attack. Though possessing a slender frame, he’s great at not only leveling up his physicality but also absorbing contact. He slides his feet and is light on them as well, allowing him to stay with his man through the shiftiness. His hands are quick and active, enabling disruption and discomfort on the ball. One qualm, every now and then when he’s navigating screens, he gets himself too skinny, and he surrenders the advantage — although it’s tough to critique ball screen defense without knowing the coverages.
Regardless, Alexander-Walker is relentless with his pressure, has wonderful technique, and has good functional strength on ball. If moving on from Minnesota, he should slot in as a team’s primary point-of-attack defender.
Alexander-Walker is a disruptive ball-handler that can defend the league’s elite players, while also spacing the floor and providing playmaking offensively. He checks these boxes for the combo guard stopper, and his impact could be felt heavier in a larger role.
Fit with Memphis
The Grizzlies are losing a lot with the Desmond Bane trade. While they fortified their perimeter defense with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Cedric Coward through this deal, they’ve taken a playmaking hit. In the backcourt, it’s pretty much just Ja Morant and Scotty Pippen Jr. With Morant’s injury history, and with where the league is going with deploying multiple playmakers, the Grizzlies have to address this void created through the Bane trade.
Will Alexander-Walker be a guy that can fully facilitate the offense? Not entirely, but he’s easily a playmaker that can keep the offense flowing through the next action.
In addition to his playmaking, he’s going to be a reliable floor spacer, which again is important when losing shooters of Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard’s caliber.
The biggest part with Alexander-Walker is his point-of-attack defense. He typically spelled Jaden McDaniels as the defender on primary ball-handlers. He excelled at it as well — based off the different metrics above, and for the reasons outlined in this film study.
Yes, the Grizzlies could very well trust Jaylen Wells with this role. However, the best teams have multiple bodies to throw at star initiators. Oklahoma City has Alex Caruso, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, and Cason Wallace. Indiana has Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. Minnesota has Jaden McDaniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. New York has Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby. Boston had Derrick White and either Jrue Holiday or Marcus Smart since 2022.
It’s a key component in building a contender.
In this scenario, the Grizzlies would have Alexander-Walker, Wells, Caldwell-Pope, and Pippen — with Cedric Coward learning the ropes of being a two-way NBA player. Within this group, Alexander-Walker would boast the best combination of size and ball-handling offensively.
Now, the big question is what it’d take to get him.
In my mock offseason article over a week ago, I suggested using Cole Anthony’s contract in a three-team trade — shipping him to the Sacramento Kings (a team with a sizable traded player exception and a need at point guard) with a second round-pick, a second-round pick and traded player exception going to Minnesota, then Alexander-Walker to Memphis. The Grizzlies have a 2026, 2031, and two 2032 second-round picks to trade, and could probably acquire an extra one through trading low-cost, end-of-roster players like Jay Huff or Vince Williams Jr.
The contract number I threw out there was four years, $66M ($18 average annual salary descending each year). I’d even do a three-year, $60M at a $20 AAV, as the Grizzlies could return up to $20.6M back from an Anthony trade.
Alexander-Walker is a combo guard with a proven playoff track record and fits the timeline of Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. They have the 3-and-D wings with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jaylen Wells, and Cedric Coward — the two latter players could continue proving the theory that the best way to get big wings is to be in on them first and draft them. They could use a playmaker in the 2-3 room.
With that said, Alexander-Walker should be the Grizzlies’ top target this offseason, and should be the starting shooting guard next to Morant and Wells. It wouldn’t shock me if he follows the combo guard stoppers of past championship teams as a critical component to high-leverage basketball.
Will the Grizzlies be able to get him though? Unsure, as he’s a top priority for a lot of teams.
The Stein Line’s Jake Fischer reported the Atlanta Hawks have interest in Alexander-Walker via its massive $25M traded player exception. The Athletic’s Law Murray identified Alexander-Walker as a free agent to watch for the Clippers.
Nonetheless, the Memphis Grizzlies should target a combo guard stopper that can take pressure off Morant as a secondary playmaker, can space the floor, and be a key defensive stopper. From a monetary standpoint, the Grizzlies could offer more than the $14.1M non-taxpayer mid-level exception if they leverage the Cole Anthony contract in a multi-team sign-and-trade.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker should be a top target for the Memphis Grizzlies this offseason. If it’s not meant to be, the combo guard stopper is an elusive archetype that should be a priority addition next to Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. The defensive prowess and playmaking responsibilities are paramount, and the impact on winning is too profound to ignore.
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