Can Jaylen Wells be the next great value shooter?
Can Jaylen Wells be the next great value shooter?
Recent NBA contenders have extracted value from elite shooting prospects. Can Jaylen Wells be the next example for the Memphis Grizzlies?
Prior to the draft, I wrote about how the Memphis Grizzlies can nab its next value contract with its 39th and 57th picks. Several directions could’ve been taken with these picks to add depth around the margins — shooting, defense, or another big man. The Grizzlies ultimately double-dipped with shooting by acquiring Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer in the second round.
Spencer signed to a two-way contract, while Wells will be on the main roster after signing a four-year deal. While likely perplexing to some — as people expected the Grizzlies to not bring two rookies on the 15-man main roster with its sights set on contention — the 39th pick seemed a bit too high to target a player for a two-way contract. Wells will still likely play the majority of his minutes with the Memphis Hustle next season, but he has the skillset to impact winning basketball for the Grizzlies over his four-year contract.
And recently, we’ve seen plenty of instances where shooters of his pedigree impact winning at the highest levels.
Let’s show an example of recent NBA wings 6’6” or taller that shot 40% from 3 on 10 or more three’s per 100 possessions in college — among those drafted after the first round (or undrafted):
Let me be clear, the barttovik query is imperfect. Most of these names simply had a cup of coffee in the league. However, there are three names here I want to focus on, alongside Jaylen Wells:
Sam Hauser
Caleb Martin
Duncan Robinson
All three players have swung the pendulum in several playoff games — and even altered the trajectory of an entire series — with their outside shooting while on value contracts. They’ve amplified their team’s ceilings, as front office identified these shooting talents around the margins. In addition, all three players have expanded their toolbox to add value aside from outside shooting.
Starting with Duncan Robinson, he emerged as the poster boy for shooting on a value contract — before inking a five-year, $90M deal in the summer of 2021. Since his sophomore season, he not only shot the ball at an elite level but at a historic one — recently becoming the fastest player in NBA history to hit 1,000 three-pointers. His dynamic shooting added a jolt to the Heat’s offense on its way to a Finals run in 2020. He became a release valve for Jimmy Butler off drives. In addition, he developed an outstanding partnership with Bam Adebayo in DHO’s, as the Heat empowered its All-Star big man as a Delay action hub.
Caleb Martin doesn’t fit the profile as well as Robinson and Hauser. He’s not much of a shooting specialist, as he’s more of a tertiary shot creator. While he trends towards being an average 3-point shooter, he elevates his shooting in the playoffs, as he’s connected on 40.1% of his 3’s on 3.6 attempts per game in his postseason career.
Sam Hauser is the most recent example, a shining case because of his role on the title-winning Celtics team. The Celtics emphasizing firing as many three’s as possible — as a league-leading 43.7% of their shots came from beyond the arc, per Cleaning the Glass. They leverage drives and paint touches to generate looks from 3, and Hauser benefits from it. As the Celtics have become top heavy — with talent and salary — Hauser on a value contract has bolstered their depth with a player that amplifies their philosophy with outside shooting.
Not only does Jaylen Wells have the pedigree to thrive in a similar manner, but the infrastructure allows him to do so. Last season, the Grizzlies were among the league leaders in 3-point attempts per game (37.8, 6th) and corner 3 frequency (10.5% of their shot attempts, 9th, per Cleaning the Glass). Granted, they probably had to compensate with their missing creation and paint touches with more 3’s to stay in games. However, there’s been an emphasis of taking more 3’s within the Grizzlies system.
Wells will also benefit from the personnel. Ja Morant is one of the most frequent drivers and pick-and-roll ball-handlers in the league. He’s an automatic paint touch and captivates the defense’s attention. He strikes on this advantage by mapping the floor for finishers and shooters. Even getting minutes next to playmakers like Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart should generate open looks.
In addition, the actions within the Grizzlies free up open shooters. Pick-and-roll’s with either Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke will generate tags from the low man of the defense, which in turn leaves a shooter open. While Jaren Jackson Jr. has room for growth as a pick-and-roll big man, his ability to put the ball on the deck is a dynamic defenses have to account for and stop.
The Grizzlies also create shooting looks with staggered screens off the ball and with stack actions — seen most with Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard. Wells will likely have similar actions run for him with the Hustle to help him get comfortable with movement shooting off the NBA 3-point line.
Finally, the Grizzlies have seen shooting leaps from the 2/3 spot. De’Anthony Melton and Grayson Allen’s rises to 3-point potency came in Memphis. Desmond Bane entered the NBA as a knockdown shooter and has expanded his versatility from beyond the arc. Not necessarily a development trend but more of a utilization trend, but Luke Kennard’s volume and accuracy have increased in Memphis.
Jaylen Wells has the shooting prowess to follow a similar trajectory.
Three statistical thresholds are pivotal in this trajectory: 3-point attempt rate, per-minute/possession 3-point attempts, and effective field goal percentage.
Caleb Martin’s 3-point volume is the lowest of the three, which in turn hits his efficiency. Hauser and Robinson are two players that have an efficient 3-point diet, while also showing the willingness to let it fly. Both players have attempted roughly 9 or more 3-pointers per 36 minutes each season of their careers — Robinson’s rookie year (7.8) was the lone exception. In addition, more than 80% of their shots come from beyond the arc.
While people may scream it’s a byproduct of the “analytics,” the analytics aren’t about “taking just 3’s and layups — no mid-range shots.” It’s about taking the best quality shot for that specific player. Hauser and Robinson are examples of this product, as they cater their shot portfolio to their outside shooting — in turn, usually finishing within the 80th percentile or higher in effective field goal percentage, the hallmark of efficiency.
While Jaylen Wells could eventually show more to his bag, similar usage could be the best way to tap into his strengths, build his confidence, and earn consistent minutes down the road.
The thing that stands out with these three players, beyond their impact on contending teams, is how they’ve improved in other aspects of their game to couple with their elite shooting. All of these skills are pretty replicable, and could serve as pathways for Jaylen Wells to earn minutes in the rotation down the line.
Defensive stability is a big key, resonating more with Martin and — recently — Hauser. Martin fits the more modern wing that can defend multiple positions and does so at a high level — ranking in the 74th or higher percentile in defensive estimated plus/minus (dEPM), per dunksandthrees. He became one of Miami’s most important defenders due to his size and physicality. Hauser quietly became a steady defender with his technicality and physicality in Boston’s system — often masquerading his perceived defensive liability into stops, most evident in switches.
Wells has intriguing defensive tools with his size and physicality, from the early sample in Summer League, to grow into a formidable defender. He’ll likely see various matchups, in terms of various archetypes, so that he’s ready to take on a variety of defensive assignments when his number is called upon.
Shooters have recently been tasked with the question or idea of what their value is when they’re run off the line. Caleb Martin is the most glaring example, as he took on a substantial scoring load with a diversified shot portfolio over his time with the Heat — including rising to the occasion in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals. Last season, Robinson took a sizable leap as a creator — increasing his assist average (1.5 over his career, to 2.8 in 2023-24), while also taking more 2’s than ever before (3.0 per game, cutting his 3-point rate by 10%).
Offense inside the arc is a trend to watch with Wells. At Washington State last season, he only made 49% of his shots at the rim and 46.2% of his overall two-pointers. He doesn’t provide a lot of rim pressure, though he has a good stop-and-pop mid-range game. It’s an area that’s not “make or break” for his NBA trajectory, given his prowess as a shooter, but it could become a nice ceiling raiser.
Jaylen Wells is the most prolific shooter the Memphis Grizzlies have drafted since Desmond Bane. His combination of size, shooting touch, form, and percentages leave room for extra upside on the wings.
This year, he’ll likely hone in his skills as a 3-and-D wing with the Memphis Hustle. Worth noting, all three players played substantial minutes in the G League in their rookie campaigns.
The four-year contract with Jaylen Wells is a development play with a bet that he’ll eventually become a reliable source of shooting off the bench, exceeding the value of his rookie scale deal. And we’ve seen over the past several years that these players could become enhancements to title contenders in various capacities.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Jaylen Wells become a future example with the Memphis Grizzlies.
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