Where can Grizzlies find its next value contract?
Where can Grizzlies find its next value contract?
The Memphis Grizzlies have used the draft to extract value and identify complementary players around its core. Which type of players could the Grizzlies go for after the 9th pick?
Within the Memphis Grizzlies rebuild, they found their core rather easy. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. lived up to their top-5 hype quickly. Then, Desmond Bane emerged as a draft day steal — after an initial breakout his sophomore year, followed by All-Star level leaps in years 3 and 4.
Finding a “Big 3” core through the draft is massive, especially in a NBA ecosystem where it’s more likely you trade for at least 1 of those players.
An underrated component of the Grizzlies’ rebuild has been its ability to find value on the margins. It could include late 1st-round picks with Brandon Clarke and Santi Aldama, valuable depth with 4-year control with the rights for extension or restricted free agency. Or, it could be with the “Hinkie special” — essentially a 4-year deal near the minimum that may contain some team option or non-guarantees in the contract.
The Grizzlies are no strangers to this methodology. It offers the ability to have sustainable depth for the medium-term, while ensuring minimal risk with non-guarantees or team options within the deal. They’ve done standard 4-year deals of this manner with 2nd-round picks for Xavier Tillman and Kennedy Chandler. They’ve also converted their 2-way contracts to these 4-year deals hovering around $8M with similar options and guarantees. John Konchar was the 1st example and performed well enough for a 3rd contract. GG Jackson and Vince Williams inked similar deals this past year, which could very easily become two of the most valuable contracts in the NBA — giving the Grizzlies’ a real window to bolster their roster around its Big 3.
It doesn’t have a 100% success rate. Chandler, Killian Tillie, Jontay Porter, and Kenneth Lofton Jr. didn’t see through their contracts. Nonetheless, its track record with these value contracts remain strong, and this framework will continue to be essential as this team gets more expensive.
The Grizzlies have 2 second-round draft picks (39th and 57th selections). They could either package 39 with future 2nds to move back into the 1st round, or just stay at these spots to fill out the end of its roster — whether it’s the 15th spot, or its last 2-way spot is up in the air. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reported that the Grizzlies do like this draft, so you can’t rule out them utilizing this 39th pick with future draft capital to identify their guys and move around the board.
Furthermore, the Grizzlies have optionality and the opportunity to extract value around the margins in the draft.
Let’s break it down by archetype or skill.
Shooting
You can never have too much shooting, and the Grizzlies need it quite badly. They were 29th in 3-point percentage. It should rise next season with the presence of more NBA-level playmaking to open up clean looks for perimeter players. The Grizzlies’ contract situation with Luke Kennard’s team option is another factor — though not many players in the draft can replace his level of shooting. In addition, more roster spots may eventually open with Santi Aldama, Ziaire Williams, and Jake LaRavia on the back-end of their rookie deals.
Even with these existing factors, I operate under the mindset of having a quantity of quality shooting — it’s no quantity vs. quality deal, it’s striking both.
Trade-up targets:
Baylor Scheierman. The skinny: 6’8” shooter that can let it fly off the dribble, find open teammates, and crash the glass. Could play right away.
Johnny Furphy. The skinny: 6’9” wing that shoots, crash the glass, and runs the floor, but may be a year or 2 away from physically handling rotation minutes. Good upside swing though.
Ja’Kobe Walter. The skinny: More of an undersized 2-guard, but his +6 wingspan could add more defensive juice. Still has to prove his 3-and-D upside can materialize, as his indicators aren’t promising.
2nd round:
Jalen Bridges. The skinny: Versatile 3-point shooter that crashes the glass. Still needs to figure out defensive role.
Cam Christie. Special shooting indicators as an 18 year old — nearly 40% on both catch-and-shoot and pull-up 3’s, with a high volume of off-the-dribble 3’s. Needs at least a year or 2 to add strength for defense and paint pressure.
Justin Edwards. The skinny: Big wing that showcased more of a 3-and-D skillset in SEC play.
Cam Spencer. The skinny: Undersized, but a fiery competitor that can hit 3’s in a variety of ways and use his craft to get downhill.
Antonio Reeves. The skinny: Has a ton of defensive question marks, but has a deadly 3-point shot and can get to a floater when run off the line.
Jaylen Wells. The skinny: A late-blooming 6’7” wing with upside as a movement shooter.
Pelle Larsson. The skinny: A dribble-pass-shoot 6’7” wing with an accurate jumper, but have some questions about level of impact.
Big Man
It isn’t total outlandish for the Grizzlies to chase a big man with its 2nd pick — whether it’s in the 2nd round, or by trading up from 39 — then chasing a veteran big via trade or free agency.
It could also be an indication they want Jaren Jackson Jr. to be their primary 5, or they found their guy elsewhere.
Some names I excluded due to them being out of “trade-up from 39” or “second-round” range: Zach Edey, DaRon Holmes (rumors of him going as high as 12), and Kyle Filipowski. Nabbing any of these players with a 2nd first-round pick would be a home run.
Trade-up targets:
Yves Missi. The skinny: I have Missi as a realistic target at 9, but mocks have him in the 20’s. A raw big man with intriguing size and a non-stop motor on both ends of the floor.
Kel’El Ware. The skinny: A tantalizing 7-footer that can rim-run, block shots, and shoot 3’s in doses. Has a motor issue history — not entirely evident in Indiana, but his production shrunk against NBA-caliber big men.
2nd round:
Oso Ighodaro. The skinny: A 6’11” big man that’s a deft playmaker and can be a connective hub, but limited with outside shot.
Jonathan Mogbo. The skinny: Plays bigger than listed size with his athleticism, rebounding, and defensive event generation. Doesn’t shoot, but can put the ball on the floor.
Adem Bona. The skinny: Has an outstanding motor and good frame, but won’t stretch the floor.
Defensive Playmaker
You can never have too many players that can wreak havoc defensively. The Zach Kleiman-led front office has often targeted players that can create defensive events that turn into transition offense.
It’d be ideal if the player could shoot the 3-ball as well, but it could also be developed in the G League.
Targets
Ryan Dunn. The skinny: A special defensive prospect at 6’8”, but he’s still insanely raw offensively. I’d totally have him in the G League shooting 4-5 corner 3’s per game.
Isaiah Crawford. A bigger wing that can cause chaos with his event creation and knock down catch-and-shoot 3’s.
Kevin McCullar. The skinny: A big defensive guard that can’t really shoot, but could stick in a similar role as Gary Payton II or Bruce Brown.
Everyone will focus on the directions the Grizzlies take with the 9th pick and to address the center position. However, they have the opportunity to continue extracting value around the margins with its 39th pick or its future second-round picks to move around the board to go get their guys.
If I was choosing the direction to go here, I’d look to acquire another shooter. Spacing is paramount for success in the modern NBA, and having as many reliable shooters as possible will open up the floor for Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane. If the Grizzlies look to trade back into the 1st round, Baylor Scheierman would be a great plug-and-play pickup. Otherwise, Jalen Bridges would be a good target for the 2nd round.
Nonetheless, it’s important to continue working around the margins, a key skill for front offices of small-market and expensive teams alike — where the Grizzlies are heading for the 2024-25 season. We’ve seen how players like GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. can be valuable complementary pieces next to the core. With the Grizzlies' collection of assets, they could continue extracting value deeper in the draft next week.
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