Can Ziaire Williams use recent performances into springboard for strong close to season?

Ziaire Williams closed the All-Star break on a high note. Can he build upon his performance to close a rollercoaster season with momentum towards the offseason and next year?

Ziaire Williams’ 3rd season boiled down to one word is inconsistency. In preseason, he took and won the challenge of the open starting small forward spot head on. Once regular season play came in, his production wavered, and his impact drastically slipped. However, in the midst of it all, he flashed the upside to be a contributor in the rotation — though it hasn’t sustained for extended stretches of time.

Williams closed the All-Star break on a high note, upon returning from a 3-week hand injury. The stats didn’t pop off the page in his returning game — notching 5 points (2-6 shooting), 2 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal in just 22 minutes. However, he exploded against the Bucks right before the All-Star break. He tallied 27 points on 9-13 shooting (4-7 from 3, 5-7 from the free throw line), 4 rebounds, 4 assists, 3 steals in a big win over the Milwaukee Bucks.

While he’s put on great performances in more critical (and normal) situations, Williams capped the All-Star break with the best outing of his career. His confidence oozed offensively with his jumper and his decision-making on the ball. He was after it defensively, rising up to the occasion of guarding a human torch like Damian Lillard.

Williams won’t score at this volume every game. However, he strung together moments in these games that are repeatable towards a strong close to the regular season.

Offense

Prior to the start of the season, Williams flashed upside as a mid-range scorer and a vertical lob threat. This year, his efficiency has taken a dip this season.

The reasoning is easy to identify. He — along with the rest of the team — have played a heavy bulk of minutes without their go-to playmakers (Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, and recently Desmond Bane). With those absences come heightened defensive attention and offensive responsibilities.

Nonetheless, it’s tough to see these marks decrease, especially given his proven prowess in these specific areas.

However, prior to the All-Star break, they returned. A huge component of it was his confidence and quick decision-making.

All 3 of these mid-range jumpers come within “0.5-second” decision-making. In the first shot, Williams identifies the height discrepancy with his defender and darts towards the lane to make himself available for the turnaround jumper. Second, he goes towards the ball after Aldama picks up his dribble. From there, he identifies Jordan Goodwin setting a ball screen. Williams attacks the switch and rises up for the shot. Finally, a “feeling himself” kind of moment — Williams hits Beasley with a quick crossover towards the elbow and rises up for the middy.

It was great to see Williams thrive in an area he’s flashed upside in — something he can build upon going forward.

Williams made himself available for two big-time alley-oops last week, one that served as a catalyst in their win over Milwaukee. At the moment, the Grizzlies don’t have a lot of vertical spacing — though they’re void of playmakers to set up lobs doesn’t help either.

The most scalable element of his offensive game will be the 3-point shot. His overall percentages trend towards mediocre — connecting on 32.1% of his 3’s on 3.6 attempts per game. However, he has decent indicators of solid shooting in a normalized role — as he’s making 38% of his corner 3’s and 35.7% of his catch-and-shoot 3’s, per Cleaning the Glass and Synergy Sports. When it comes to building upon his development towards the offseason and next season, consistent, confident outside shooting will be the biggest key of it offensively.

The first clip here illustrates 0.5-second decision-making on the jumper. The other two really stand out though. Notice the off-ball movement in the second clip. He plays off the energy of the ball and the player movement. He floats to the other corner off the screen action. As the ball swings, he cuts towards the dunker’s spot then relocates to the opposite corner — making the defense pay for ball-watching. In the last 3, that attempt was arguably his quickest of his career — great awareness of the “2 for 1” situation (the analytics, as Luka Doncic would say).

It’d be remiss of me to not include Ziaire Williams’ step-back 3 over Giannis Antetokounmpo — an audacious heat check in 17-point 3rd quarter.

The confidence bleeding into his offensive game as a scorer was an encouraging element of his performance, especially as it led to efficient production. Again, the production volume and efficiency may not sustain night to night, but impact is more likely when there’s confidence in his movements and shots.

Williams as an initiator has been the shakiest element of his offensive game. He’s in the 8th percentile in turnover percentage among wings (15.2%). Out of the pick-and-roll in particular (66 possessions), he’s only generating 0.485 points per possession — along with a 28.4 effective field goal percentage and 28.8 turnover percentage, per Synergy Sports.

Last week, he made solid decisions with the ball in his hands, boasting 6 assists and 2 turnovers across the 2 games.

In the two clips against the Rockets, Williams makes the quick “extra pass” — relocating to the opposite wing after the post entry and swinging the ball to the corner for a 3, then attacking a closeout to hit Jackson for a trailing 3. Against the Bucks, his “next action” initiation was sound. Off the pick-and-roll, he finds the angle to hit the roller in the 1st action. The next one, he picks up his dribble in the corner and just moves the ball to the next guy, who attacks the closeout for the slam.

Williams won’t be tasked with as much playmaking responsibilities in a normalized role, but it will be amplified going forward — whether it’s in primary or “next action” initiation. His progression with the ball in his hands, especially when it comes to taking care of it, will be one to monitor the next month and a half.

Defense

Defense should be Ziaire Williams’ primary calling card going forward, especially since he’s likely to be slotted in a bench or complementary role for the time being. And at the moment, it’s his most bankable skill — boasting a +0.2 defensive EPM (per dunksandthrees), and the physical tools to hound 1’s and 2’s.

Off-ball defense is where he struggles the most. He tends to help off his man a bit too much in downhill actions, as the opponent can kick to Williams’ man for 3’s. He still showed some flaws in this area over the last week, a reminder of the growth remaining defensively.

In the first action, he ball-watches the transition driver a bit too low — allowing his man to attack the closeout off the catch, and bully his way to the bucket. Secondly, Williams helps too far off his man at the nail, as Dillon Brooks moved the ball to the top of the key for the 3.

Williams, however, did show good “help and recover” technique in this stretch though.

The first two instances illustrate good “stunt and closeout” techniques on corner 3’s. The last one stands out, as he crashes the closeout to blow up a wide-open 3-point attempt and force a swing to a contested 3.

Last note on off-ball defense, his screen navigation was impressive — weaving around picks to contest on his man’s 3-point attempt.

The thing that’ll stick out to most with Ziaire Williams’ defensive performance last week was how he defended Damian Lillard. He hounded him defensively and applied pressure all 94 feet — navigating screens, denying off the ball, and keeping his hands active. As the kids would say, he really had that dawg in him defensively.

(1) Williams cuts off the drive by staying attached to Dame’s hip. (2) Williams applies pressure at the point-of-attack and with the blitz, maintaining face-guard positioning to take him out of the play. (3) Williams stays with Dame through the HORNS screen action to knock away the pass attempt and generate a turnover. (4) Williams picks up Dame off the in-bounds pass — credit to Trey Jemison on the switch and contest. (5) Williams, again, picks Dame up full-court and navigates the screen to blow up his dribble action — and ultimately help seal the game.

“That’s what I play for. I love that shit,” Ziaire Williams said. “It’s 90% effort and 10% personnel. He was attacking left a lot, so I was trying to sit on his left hand and use my lane to contest his shots. It’s just so fun playing against those guys night in and night out. I challenge myself to be a great two-way player, and it really starts off with the defense and then the energy translates to offense.”

Ziaire Williams made big-time winning plays defensively, perhaps the most translatable element of his game to take out of the break and into the closing time of the regular season. He has the tools to be a sound perimeter defender, illustrated in his performance last week.

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It’s hard to gauge Ziaire Williams’ future with the Grizzlies. Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson have leapfrogged him in the wing hierarchy. Williams will also be on an expiring contract next season, with a slight bump from roughly $4M to $6M on his deal — all before restricted free agency.

But that’s a future situation. At the moment, it’s about finishing the season strong with positive momentum towards his development.

Taylor Jenkins alluded that he and Williams have had honest conversations about how this season has transpired and what’s needed going forward. It was a dialogue that boosted Williams’ confidence.

So now, these next 26 games are about making sure that confidence bleeds into his performance on both sides of the ball to close the season.

In his return back-to-back, he showed translatable elements that don’t involve high scoring volume: shooting confidently, making the right reads, staying active defensively, and being a dawg at the point of attack.

You’ve probably heard the phrase “control what you can control” with this Memphis Grizzlies organization. Through this rollercoaster season, one with alternating roles and minutes, Ziaire Williams can control what he can control by building upon those performances and closing the regular season on a high note.

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