Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson are changing the calculus for the Memphis Grizzlies' future
It's been a rough season for the Memphis Grizzlies, but Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson have emerged as key pieces -- glimmers of hope -- for this team's present and long-term plans.
This Memphis Grizzlies season has slipped further and further away as injuries piled upon the report — atop of the 1st 25 games without Ja Morant. Then, their All-NBA point guard and 2 pivotal players in Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard returned, and a glimmer of hope began to shine. It brightened at its fullest after the Grizzlies rattled off a big road win against the Los Angeles Lakers — the home of the Shannon Sharpe incident and of the Grizzlies’ rough 1st-round exit — with their new “Core 4” each scoring 20+ points.
If script writers wanted to, they could’ve had the Grizzlies’ season turn around in the place they’ve received battle scars last year. However, long-term injuries to Morant, Bane, and Smart all within the week derailed its postseason hypes — the power to the light of hope seemed to cut off.
While the wins aren’t rolling through at a high rate right now, the glimmer of hope is shining once again. Why’s that? Because Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson have risen up to the moment to emerge as key fixtures for the Grizzlies now and going forward.
Though the hope isn’t parlaying into wins, it’s paying dividends for the team’s future outlook. They have changed the calculus for the Grizzlies’ roster construction going forward.
Stylistically, they fit what’s needed on the wing for a Morant-Jackson-Bane core.
Vince Williams wreaks havoc as a winning player. At his core, he’s a winning player with an unwavering motor. Defensively, his versatility is unmatched, facing an array of player archetypes. He doesn’t back down to any defensive assignment — as he ranks 4th in matchup difficulty, per The B-Ball Index. He’s a maniac on the glass for his position, alleviating the concerns of its depleted big man depth. He just makes good decisions offensively as a passer, cutter, and shooter.
And what’s fascinating, with more offensive responsibilities without Morant, Bane, and Smart, his numbers are rising while his efficiency has sustained — averaging 16.2 points on 50% shooting on 10.6 shots before game. He’s emerged as a legitimate playmaker within the flow of the offense — averaging 4.9 assists in his last 16 games, and dishing out 5 or more dimes in each of the past 6 outings. While that assist volume may not hold, he’s a wing capable of attacking closeouts and finding open teammates to capitalize off a scrambled defense.
His adaptability to the team’s situation has been vastly impressive.
With GG Jackson, his production is unreal for a teenager — reminder, he’ll still be 19 years old for the 1st 2 months of the 2024-25 season. Game by game, he’s joining the likes of LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Durant for youngest players that hit certain benchmarks. He’s also the youngest player since LeBron James and Dwight Howard to average 10+ points — and doing so in significantly fewer minutes.
Is he going to be one of those players? No, that’s an insanely high bar. However, GG Jackson’s potential is off the charts for many reasons, more vividly his movement and skill for a player his age and size. More importantly, he’s scoring within the flow of the offense. He’s spotting up from 3 and letting it fly, attacking closeouts, rolling and cutting to the basket. Recently, he’s showing more of his bag off the dribble. His control with his footwork — especially when on his gather step — is advanced for a player his age. There’s a reason he’s dubbed as a potential top pick if he stayed in his original class this year.
Defensively, he’s shown solid flashes as a help rim perimeter and as an individual defender. He doesn’t look lost, especially with his shot-blocking. His improvements on that end will be ones to monitor after the break.
These 2 players fit an archetype the Grizzlies have been searching for, and add a new dynamic to this team’s construction.
The big question is how they fit next to Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. within the team’s plans going forward — especially since we don’t have much data with them altogether.
There’s been more evidence with Williams next to these 3. In a very small sample of 175 possessions, the Grizzlies are outscoring opponents by 7.5 points per 100 possessions when Williams shares the floor with the Big 3, per Cleaning the Glass. When Williams has played with Bane and Jackson, the Grizzlies’ NET rating is +8.7, as they held opponents to 106.2 points per 100 possessions.
GG Jackson has only played significant minutes with Jaren Jackson Jr. The sample has trended neutral with a -1.1 NET rating, but it jumps to +6.4 when Williams joins the party.
The tantalizing element of their fits with the Big 3 is the malleability of the wings. They could have a size advantage, as Williams and Jackson can play the 2 and 3 in staggered lineups. In addition, they can play up to the 3 and 4 — respectively — serving as key cogs in any potential adjustments.
Within this capability, they are good complements in lineups where Jaren Jackson Jr. is a 5. GG Jackson provides the size to serve as a 4, and he should improve in this position as he puts on more muscle — especially on defense and rebounds. His bag offensively could also open up mismatch opportunities against bigger, slower defenders.
Williams is a sensational fit in “Jaren at the 5” lineups, because he plays bigger than his size. In those lineups, the Grizzlies boast a +5.0 NET rating with Jaren at the 5 when Williams is on the floor — compared to -4.4 overall (a +9.4 swing). He’s a tenacious wing that crashes the glass and hounds various types of players, alleviating the concerns of Jackson’s rebounding while amplifying the defensive fortitude.
The key to Jackson at the 5 lineups is fit — floor spacers, committee rebounders, and defensive versatility. Vince Williams and GG Jackson fit the mold.
And beyond that specific trend, their outside shooting offers optimism for clean fits next to its fully-healthy big 3. GG Jackson and Vince Williams are shooting 41.2% and 36.5% from 3, respectively. Where the optimism lies is within the scalable elements of 3-point shooting. Jackson is shooting 58% on corner 3’s and 42.2% on catch-and-shoot 3’s, per Synergy Sports. Williams has made 39% of his above-the-break 3’s and 35.3% in catch-and-shoot situations. The Grizzlies have insistently tried to bolster their halfcourt offense around its Big 3, and consistent outside shooting is the avenue to do so.
GG Jackson and Vince Williams have provided good early returns on their fit next to the team’s core, and they have the skillsets for it to sustain.
The biggest element here is it changes how the Grizzlies can approach the wing depth, because of their skillsets and production on their contracts.
Depth at the wing loomed large for the Grizzlies — hence the investments they made in the draft, and the offers they put out there for big-time wings on the trade market. While GG Jackson and Vince Williams won’t shut down trade talks for upgrades — though they could avoid pushing the envelope on another young wing with this year’s draft pick — they have emerged as good depth pieces with a pathway for a larger role.
Williams provides much-needed role depth as a 3-and-D perimeter stopper. If you really want to contextualize how good he’s been, his estimated plus/minus (EPM) numbers are on line with Mikal Bridges in his age-23 season, per dunksandthrees.
Williams: -0.5 oEPM, +1.9 dEPM, +1.4 EPM
Bridges: -1.0 oEPM, +1.8 dEPM, +0.7 EPM
He’s a quintessential 3-and-D wing that plays with “Energizer Bunny” levels of energy, hits outside shots, and does the little things to impact winning.
Jackson’s profile is one NBA front offices covet at a premium — 6’9” shot-creating wing with defensive tools. His production has been remarkable at this stage of his development, and it’s fair to dream about the height of his ceiling.
Williams and Jackson can even make starting arguments next season. I’d bet money on Marcus Smart starting next season, but it wouldn’t be inconceivable if the Grizzlies opted for more size in a Morant/Bane backcourt.
Even then, they could be valuable pieces off the bench next season, offering a sweet dynamic with Williams’ chaos creation and Jackson’s scoring ability.
The Grizzlies have them locked up for the next several years at a bargain, after converting their two-way contracts.
Vince Williams: 4 years, $9.1M
GG Jackson: 4 years, $8.5M
For a Grizzlies team paying 3 players star money, as an organization flirting with the luxury tax, cost-controlled depth is valuable at this stage of this era. Williams and Jackson provide great value as bigger wings with room for growth the next few years.
Obviously, there will be questions over the next 16 months. Patreon writer Matt Hrdlicka wrote about the idea of the Grizzlies being too young to contend for a title next season — under the assumption Williams, Jackson, and a top-10 pick are in a playoff rotation. (Yes, Jackson’s 1-game suspension and 4 fines he spilled to the media are minor details in this dynamic). Their production in critical situations will be something to monitor. Again, we need to see how they scale next to a healthy Big 3 (and Marcus Smart).
We have to wait for these questions to unfold. With their play though, they’ve changed the calculus for this Memphis Grizzlies team. They have become answers to the team’s quest for improved wing depth that offer a fascinating blend of instant production and further development. And they’re locked in with the Grizzlies through the next 3 seasons.
Over the next few months, we’ll see more of Vince Williams and GG Jackson to close the season — while also envisioning their fits with an optimized rotation.
And surely, more glimmers of hope should shine as the rollercoaster season draws closer to its end.
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