Riding momentum with Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jaren Jackson Jr. has showed more flashes of his All-Star self, in the midst of a slump the past few weeks. Over the next 6 games, before Ja Morant's return, the Grizzlies need to ride his momentum.
It hasn’t been an ideal start for Jaren Jackson Jr. this season, as teams are loading up on him more than ever before in Ja Morant’s absence. However, last week, he showed that he’s slowly but surely rounding back into form.
In the Minnesota game, though in an inefficient shooting night, he resembled the switchable, rim-altering presence he’s been the past few seasons. Against the Utah Jazz, he sought mismatches more offensively and imposed his force defensively with a season-high 6 blocks. Foul trouble limited him to 13 minutes against Dallas, but his performance was emphatic against Phoenix — scoring a season-high 37 points on 13-21 shooting, while hauling in 9 rebounds.
At this time, as Ja Morant nears his return, it’s about riding the momentum towards Jaren Jackson Jr. finding his stride.
He started out the season quite well — averaging 21.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.9 blocks while shooting 49.6% from the field and 34.0% from 3 (5.2 attempts per game) in his 1st 9 games. However, he’s struggled over the past several games, as his efficiency has started to tail off compared to last season.
Field goal percentage: 50.6% → 42.2%
Field goal percentage at the rim: 66% → 56% (6th percentile among bigs, per Cleaning the Glass)
3-point percentage: 35.5% → 28.3%
2-point percentage: 58.5% → 48.5%
It’s not uncommon to see efficiency suffer with more defensive attention, as teams are throwing doubles at him more. However, the coaching staff and Jaren Jackson have to find a way to attack — regardless of the coverage.
“Teams are throwing two, three bodies at him, he’s got to pick his spots when he’s attacking to go score, but also when to move the ball,” Taylor Jenkins said of the double-teams.
Even in the midst of defensive pressure, he’s still been an elite post-up option. Among players w/ 50+ post-up's this year, Jaren Jackson Jr. is 5th in effective FG% (56.5) and in points per game out of the post (3.7), + 6th in points per post-up possession (1.092). He’s also dishing out a career-best 1.9 assists per game.
In addition, Jackson has been a potent isolation big man, ranking among the very best in efficiency for players with 2 or more isolation plays.
Within these elements of his game, Jackson is finding his way to the free throw line. He rank inside the top 20 in free throws per game (6.1). Though the Grizzlies are suffering a relatively massive free throw differential, they don’t have many players that draw fouls. Morant’s return gives the Grizzlies two options that generate a high volume of scoring opportunities at the foul line.
Jackson’s efficiency woes mainly come with his touch and footing. Some of his misses result from a bad bounce, a combination of touch and shooting luck. While possessing upside as a big iso creator, he’s still an awkward driver, and his footwork could put him in disadvantageous spots — stumbling his way into defensive pressure and bad angles.
But it’s also a product of spacing, as teams gravitate towards him, since Desmond Bane is really the only perimeter threat available at the moment. And spacing is also the component that can offset his lack of flexibility off the bounce, and maximize his handle and strength when getting downhill.
In the Suns game, the Grizzlies weren’t exactly perfect in providing optimal spacing, but they were great at giving Jackson room to cook more often than not.
Jackson had the mismatch with the smaller Grayson Allen. Only Desmond Bane was on the strong side with him. As Jackson drives, Durant can’t help off the drive, or else he’s giving Bane a wide-open corner 3. From there, he’s able to generate a runway to finish around a helping Nurkic.
Optimal spacing can be a perk of Jackson running the 5. The Grizzlies didn’t have anyone in the dunker spot, making it more difficult for the defense to draw help from low men. Jackson is methodical getting to his spot on his way to a bucket.
This Jackson and Biyombo pick-and-roll draws a switch, but on the drive, Biyombo manages to seal Durant and Nurkic with a Gortat screen. A perk of an extra big on the floor with the seal on the inside in downhill actions.
Jackson won’t be a secondary initiator or anything, but having him bring up the ball helps the Grizzlies accelerate into actions into immediate rim pressure. In these particular sequences, he’s running at the 5 — drawing the opposing big, which creates a mismatch from the outset.
While Jackson has his flaws as an offensive player — specifically off the bounce — he manages to leverage his strength and his handle to methodically probe defenders and muscle his way into favorable scoring chances.
His defense should be picking up, as the Grizzlies now rank 10th in (non garbage time) defensive rating — surrendering 113.2 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. His impact hasn’t been at “Defensive Player of the Year” levels, as his defensive box plus/minus has dipped from 2.0 to -0.2. He’s not blocking as many shots (3.0 → 1.8 swats per game, 9.6 to 5.8 block percentage since last year). Teams are getting solid positioning on him. Nonetheless, it should spin back to the right direction because of communication — a big point of emphasis throughout the Grizzlies over the past week.
Lost in the sea of inactive report screenshots, all 3 of the players Jaren Jackson has shared the frontcourt for any stretch of time between 2 and 4 seasons have been out for nearly the entirety of the season. Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, and Xavier Tillman. He’s sharing frontcourt responsibilities with players in different roles — Bismack Biyombo, Santi Aldama, David Roddy. The differences in connectivity and chemistry lead to lapses within the defense.
“You can take it for granted when you’re playing with people you’ve known for a long time,” Jaren Jackson Jr. said. “You learn each other’s game and tendencies so that in the game, it sometimes can be nonverbal. The best teams are loud all the time, but once you learn somebody, it can be nonverbal, but it should never start nonverbal.”
As communication improves, the team — and in this case, Jackson specifically — should see their defensive impact elevate. It’s intriguing to also monitor that growth in conjunction to more minutes with Bismack Biyombo. The Grizzlies have an advantage of trotting out 2 shot-blocking threats at a time, while also staggering them to ensure formidable rim protection for all 48 minutes. As the sample builds and there’s more familiarity, the upside of this tandem should be actualized.
“We’re still trying to figure it out, to be honest,” Biyombo said. “As we go, we’ll continue to get better until we get it perfect. And we’re going to get it perfect, and we’re going to get it good, so that the guys feel comfortable enough defensively, and that they have two guys that can protect them for 48 minutes.”
Not totally worried about the defense. The current sample has been a jumbled mess due to players in and out of the lineup — and the inactive list covering a majority of a “healthy” rotation. There’s too much evidence of him being an elite defensive anchor. It’s going to be big to gauge how he consistently imposes his presence defensively with his rim deterrence and his switching. The Grizzlies being a great defense starts and ends with Jaren Jackson Jr.
“He’s the anchor of our defense.” - Ziaire Williams on Jackson
Jaren Jackson Jr. has a lot of responsibilities on this team, as is, and the teams are shelling out defensively on him, too. While it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster — when comparing his 1st 9 games and the past 10 games — it feels like he could be turning a corner into his form from last season.
“It’s hard. We ask him to do so much,” Ziaire Williams said. “He has to hold the defense down, set screens, shoot 3’s, pop, go play out the post. We ask him to do so much, but he’s handling it well, and he knows he’s an All-Star. He knows he’s capable of doing all that. It’s nothing he can’t handle.”
Over next 6 games, the Grizzlies need to ride Jackson’s momentum and tap into what made him an elite defensive presence the past 2 years and a versatile frontcourt scoring option this calendar year. It doesn’t even mean scoring 25-30 points a night. He doesn’t have to do that, as Morant and Bane are the 1st and 2nd scoring options — which is great for Jackson. However, can his momentum take form in his overall efficiency? That particular element will be one that determines the Grizzlies’ ceiling this season and beyond — not his points per game.
If the Grizzlies and Jackson continue to successful identify his attacking points offensively, while he builds chemistry and consistency with his newer frontcourt partners defensively, it’ll be huge for their run towards returning to the playoff picture.
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