March Madness is here, and what better way to kick off the NCAA tournament than with a new version of my big board? This time, I expand it out to 45, as there are prospects that intrigue me and that I want to talk about in this space.
I’ll jump into it, as I can provide as much context as possible. My last big board can be found below:
The Number One Race
Cameron Boozer is a lock for me at the number one pick. He’s insanely malleable with any different role — can run the pick-and-roll or be the screener, can isolate from the perimeter or the post, can shoot off the catch — which is a handy trait to have in team construction. A team can be built around his playmaking alongside a scoring guard (similar to Denver with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray), as a playmaking 4 next to a more scoring-centric 3, or as the 4in a two-big set. All of this is possible because he’s a high-level problem-solver. He’s one of the best front-court playmaking prospects that’s come into the league in a while.
Defensively, he has flaws because he’s not a full-blown rim protector due to his subpar athleticism. However, his ground game is underrated. While his hips are a bit stiff, he’s mobile and knows how to cut off angles. In addition, he has the strength to stonewall 5’s.
He’s one of the most productive college freshmen — and overall players — in recent NCAA history. Winning has followed him wherever he’s gone, and he has the chance to prove it this tournament. Do not underestimate his ceiling.
The most noteworthy change of this board was AJ Dybantsa leapfrogging Darryn Peterson for the 2 spot. Dybantsa has really leveled up as an overall offensive weapon, not just a scorer. He’s reading the floor much better as a playmaker, and he’s been a more willing three-point shooter — all while scoring at a supernova rate as a 6’9” forward. If the playmaking is real, then we’re talking about a real All-NBA level wing — even if he needs to be more engaged defensively.
With Peterson, it’s less about what he’s done and more about what others have done. I don’t need to document further, but it’s been a strange season for Peterson. His highs are absolutely ridiculous, and he can easily come around as the number one prospect in this class. He looks a step slower than he did at Prolific and on the Adidas circuit, and the injuries have probably played a role in it. He’s not as dynamic as a driver and playmaker as he was pre-NCAA. Leveling up in these areas would go a long way into showing he can be a primary playmaker rather than a pure 2-guard.
The PG Discussion
There have been four point guards at the helm of the NBA Draft discussion: Darius Acuff, Kingston Flemings, Keaton Wagler, and Mikel Brown Jr.
Starting with Acuff, who’s been the talk of the debate lately. He’s been legitimately awesome. In SEC play, he averaged 24.8 points, 6.6 assists (just 2.1 turnovers), and 3.0 rebounds while shooting 43.3 percent from 3 of 5.7 attempts per game. While he played a heavy-usage role, his catch-and-shoot jumper offers optimism of playing off the ball — 49.1 percent on 108 catch-and-shoot three-point attempts. There’s just so much to like about Acuff’s ability to be a floor general — three-level scoring, ball security while not sacrificing passing creativity, pick-and-roll manipulation, and tempo. Yeah, he will have issues defensively, but he has the frame to potentially mitigate it down the road, and the offensive prowess just tilts that con to a real degree.
Flemings still holds at 5 for me. He’s an absolutely blur who leverages his speed to touch the paint and make dazzling reads. He can get to his spots in the mid-range, but I’d like to see his shooting turn around a bit. His defense is what pushes him up to 5 for me. While he’s a bit overzealous, he’s active as a help defender and defends at the point-of-attack with physicality. When weighing different outcomes, if he doesn’t hit his ceiling as a De’Aaron Fox type point guard, why can’t he become a Jalen Suggs type player — a combo guard that wreaks havoc defensively and can operate as a primary or secondary playmaker?
Wagler has been out of the fray a bit since Kylan Boswell has been back. I’m intrigued with how he manages physicality, as his driving and finishing are weaknesses at the moment. His composure with the ball in his hands is immaculate for a player his age. He’s smooth creating in the mid-range, and he’s shown an ability to draw fouls as more of a primary. He can shoot from deep off the dribble and off the catch. I’m drawn to his projection, especially if he’s 6’6”. His processing, touch, and steadiness could serve as the foundation for a monster leap as he fills into his frame.
Brown is the player that shifts down from making this group the 5-8. He’s a wicked good shot creator. He’s a bit wild with the ball in his hands, but he’s a high-volume playmaker. I liken him to a Jordan Poole with better playmaking — which is an awesome player, by the way. I dropped him due to worries about a lingering back injury with lackluster defense — although his anticipation in passing lanes could be a plus (2.7 steal percentage).
Risers
The first round featured four new players from the last version.
Brayden Burries, Arizona: In conference play, Burries solidified himself as a lottery player who could crack the top 10. He has good size for the 2-guard spot. His defense is rock-solid, and he projects as someone that could defend at least 1-3 and generate turnovers. He can play on or off the ball, but he’s more of an adequate shooter than a knockdown one. His driving ability moves me the most, as there’s a smoothness to his game with his footwork and gather steps. I just buy into the notion that he’ll be a playoff rotation player, with the upside of an elite role player.
Dailyn Swain, Texas: Swain’s ability to drive and score off the dribble is impressive for a player his size. He’s operated as a drive engine that can weave his way downhill. With his size, mobility, and production, he warrants looks in the top 20. Defensively, he has the tools to level up once his usage goes down. I can’t go as high as others on Draft Twitter for these reasons — his shooting is mediocre, he hasn’t his value off the ball, and the ball won’t be in his hands this much. Maybe there’s untapped upside that can lead to him being a mid-first steal, which is something I’m looking to explore in the offseason portion of scouting.
Morez Johnson, Michigan: Johnson is just a winning player. Defensively, he’s a nightmare with his size, speed, length, and physicality. He really gets down in a stance and slides his feet on the perimeter, which should enable assignment and scheme versatility. Offensively, he projects more of a play-finisher, screener, and cutter right now whose ceiling may be limited if he doesn’t shoot it more. I’m willing to bet on these other tools while his offense rounds into form. He plays with the physicality that’s needed in the playoffs.
Motiejus Krivas, Arizona: Krivas is a monster drop-coverage defender who keeps a lid on the basket with his sheer size and technique as a 7’2” big man. He’s not a slouch either on the perimeter, as he can hedge and recover a bit. His offense is intriguing with his play-finishing and screening, but he has a gear in him as a shooter. He has shot 77.8 percent from the free-throw line in his collegiate career, possessing a clean, repeatable jumper with a soft touch. If he shoots, watch out.
The other main risers are Aday Mara and Amari Allen. I wrote on Mara a few weeks ago. The intersection of size, rim protection, and playmaking is just way too enticing to pass on. The only thing holding me back about a lottery grade on him is concern about him handling starter minutes. With Allen, he’s likely going back to school, but I’m willing to bet on 6’8” wings that can dribble, pass, shoot, and defend — especially when they’re teenagers playing in the SEC.
Fallers
There were five main fallers from my board.
Thomas Haugh: I like Haugh, and I could come back around because of his processing and motor. I’m skeptical of his position. His overall activity has gone down this season, shifting to the 3. He still isn’t a reliable shooter. With all the talk of his motor, I come back to the question of how does a player with an elite motor not have a trademark defensive skill?
Josh Jefferson: Jefferson is an enticing two-way playmaker that can be a high-level NBA connector. Arizona put his limited athleticism on watch, as they stifled a lot of his drives and finishing attempts. In the league, he will have more spacing, but it’s an area of his game he has to sharpen — especially if there’s a shooting drop-off.
Nate Ament: While Ament had a strong outing in conference play, the profile terrifies me. He’s a 6’9” forward that hardly dunks (13 dunks) and shoots 41.9 percent at the rim in the half-court. He doesn’t have the burst to create advantages either, which is why he settles for a lot of mid-range jumpers. He’s a solid shooter, but the volume or accuracy have to increase to offset his woes inside the arc. He has the fluidity to defend, but he’s a low-activity defender, which creates role uncertainty.
Tyler Tanner: Tanner is a phenomenal basketball player. He’s fast as lightning, a menace defensively, and a great floor general. Yes, I see the whole “he plays like he’s 6’5” but you can’t hide being 5’10” on an NBA floor that well. He’s still going to have an NBA career, similar to Jose Alvardo, but I have trouble slotting him appropriately due to his size.
Tounde Yessoufou: Yessoufou slipped out of the first round for me, just 31 though, just because his game feels a bit too chaotic at this juncture. His shooting mechanics are inconsistent, and his handle can get sloppy. His defensive activity is great, but he has another level to hit with his physicality on the ball. I’d still bet on the tools, but he may need another year at school.
2nd Round Notes
To make this faster, I’m going to group some of these guys together, since I haven’t written on all of these players.
Allen Graves is a fun player. He has immense value in the possessions game with his stock creation and rebounding. He can shoot, and he has positional size. I’d like to see if he can toggle more as a 3/4 than a 4/5, but he’s going to be a player.
Two NBA teams will be so lucky getting physical 5’s that can defend and make reads at a high level in Tarris Reed Jr. and Zuby Ejiofor.
Billy Richmond and Ivan Kharchenkov are likely 2027 draft guys, but I’d definitely use a draft pick on them outside the 20’s due to their defensive excellence, motor, and connectivity as wings with size. Both players could use the year to improve on their shooting, ball out in larger roles next season, and have a shot at the lottery in the 2027 draft.
Chris Cenac is the biggest wild card. His rebounding and shooting potential with his size warrant looks high in the draft. His processing and engagement right now warrant patience from an NBA front office and coaching staff. He’s the potential returner that can explode next season into the top-10.
With Caleb Foster out, Isaiah Evans could skyrocket up the board if Duke goes on a monster run. He’s maintained his shooting volume with good accuracy while adding more value in the stocks department.
I’m not sure he declares this year, but I’d draft Pryce Sandfort in the top-40 this year with a three or four-year contract waiting for him. He’s a nuclear shooter with volume, can attack closeouts, and he’s not a cone defensively. He can be the next Duncan Robinson for a team.
Don’t sleep on the immediate impact Alex Karaban and Braden Smith can provide.
Some team is going to swipe Richie Saunders on a two-way, let him recover from his ACL injury, and then get awesome value when he returns.
Rueben Chinyelu and JoJo Tugler are limited offensively, but their strengths are elite and matter significantly for NBA big men.
At 45, I just like Emanuel Sharp’s game with his electric shooting, ability to shoot under contested, and his physicality defensively. He has warts as a 6’3” shooting guard that can’t be a primary, but he always pops to me in Houston film watches.
March Madness Watch
These are the players I’m watching the closest in tournament play.
Darryn Peterson: Can he stack more flashes of his pre-NCAA game on his way to a deep run for Kansas?
Brayden Burries: Does he rise up as a top-10 guy and a projectable pseudo-primary handler with a strong Arizona run?
Nate Ament: How does he respond to the physicality?
Morez Johnson: How does the offense look in high-leverage situations?
Patrick Ngongba: Does he come back for Duke, and how does he elevate their system?
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Reconsider Haugh. Will care about each possession more than any other guy on the court, except maybe Cooper Flagg