A check-in on the Grizzlies rotation and staggered lineups
With the Memphis Grizzlies getting Ja Morant and Marcus Smart back, with Luke Kennard on the way, Taylor Jenkins will be tasked with orchestrating a new rotation and substitution patterns.
Ja Morant is back, so is Marcus Smart, and Luke Kennard is slated to come back by the end of the month. The Memphis Grizzlies are getting closer to its fully optimal version of themselves for the 2023-24 season.
Knock on any sort of wood around you, I just did.
Through the first 29 games, Taylor Jenkins has given everyone a shot at rotation minutes — with the exception of GG Jackson, an unofficial Hustle redshirt for his rookie year. Now, with players returning to the fold, the coaching staff is tasked with forming a healthier rotation, gauging potential fits and the existing data within this context.
It triggers questions. Who’s out of the rotation? Does Jenkins go 9 or 10? And with this rotation, how should Jenkins stagger these lineups?
Let’s unpack it.
Definite starters
Ja Morant
Desmond Bane
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Marcus Smart
There’s not much to say about the rationale of Morant, Bane, and Jackson starting. The Grizzlies’ trio may be the best in basketball, given the talent level and how it meshes together.
Everything now is about finding the right complements alongside them.
Everyone wanted to debate about Marcus Smart or Vince Williams Jr. starting — great problem to have, by the way. It’s sweet to have 2 players between their Big 3 that are capable of slowing down the opposing team’s best player.
While it’s fun to converse about this starting spot, the answer is still — and was always — Marcus Smart.
For starters, I’m not going to overthink the value of pairing, arguably, the best starting backcourt offense in the league with the 2 most recent Defensive Player of the Year winners.
The real questions come with the offensive fit. Smart isn’t a knockdown shooter, as his percentage vary between mediocre and average depending on the area of the floor. His playmaking opens up more on the floor for the Big 3, especially when coupled with his rim pressure. Skeptics of the fit wonder if Smart’s playmaking takes the ball out of Bane and Morant’s hands too much. However, I see Smart more of a playmaker that capitalizes on and creates advantage in 2nd actions — a noted struggle of the Grizzlies this season.
Defensively, it can’t be overthought. Smart can take on any positional archetype for his assignment, which makes him incredibly switch-able. He’s rock solid at the point-of-attack, but he may be better off the ball, because of his defensive event creation.
Unless something drastic happens this season, these 4 players are the guys that should receive the heaviest dose of minutes on a nightly basis.
The real starting lineup question
Bismack Biyombo
Xavier Tillman
The Grizzlies’ situation at center is rough because of the injuries for Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke. Their options — Bismack Biyombo and Xavier Tillman — haven’t been bad, but they lack the upside and may be overtaxed for a starting spot for a team with playoff aspirations.
For the time being, the Grizzlies could experiment with who starts between Biyombo and Tillman.
Biyombo has been the incumbent starter, and he fills a lot of the responsibilities Adams performed — though not quite to Aqua Mane’s level of impact. He ranks in the 94th percentile in offensive rebounds per game at 2.3, per The B-Ball Index. Any lineup with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane needs good screening, and Biyombo generates 4.8 screen assists per 75 possessions (92nd percentile, per The B-Ball Index). Despite these strong indicators of fit next to the Big 3, he’s limited offensively. He doesn’t have the best hands, and he’s indecisive going up for dunks or layups. His lefty hook is really hit or miss.
Tillman’s offense and defense have been on 2 different ends of the pendulum. He’s statistically one of the best defenders in the league, boasting a +3.8 dEPM (defensive estimated plus/minus) — which ranks in the 99th percentile, per dunksandthrees. The eye test backs up his defensive prowess. He possesses great hands and timing to generate defensive events. He’s been tasked with guarding some of the league’s best players and has passed with flying colors. Despite being 6’8”, he utilizes his big frame and physicality to absorb contact and prevent players from getting to their spots. He’s a chess piece in the Grizzlies’ frontcourt that can switch, and can allow Jaren Jackson to roam.
Offensively though, he’s struggling. His oEPM is at -4.1 (8th percentile, per dunks and threes). The test with his outside jumper isn’t working. His floater isn’t as effective this season, which usually offsets his limited explosiveness and his height. It’s fair to believe his offense rounds out with Morant and Smart back.
Both big men offer a formidable source of rim protection. You can go either way. Tillman offers the higher upside, but Biyombo brings a bit more steadiness. Conversations around the starting spot will continue — especially with trade season approaching. It’s going to be fascinating how the Grizzlies approach and close the season with the center position.
Sharpie into bench rotation
Luke Kennard
Santi Aldama
Vince Williams Jr.
Don’t let the shooting percentages this season fool you. Luke Kennard’s shooting will be impactful — once again — off the bench. In 4 games before his knee injury, he averaged 13.8 points and shot 57.7% from 3. Still a 43% career 3-point shooter, too. No one among the Grizzlies’ complementary players possesses the combination of shooting prowess and gravity like Kennard. If teams sag off, he capitalizes on the extra space with 3’s — and because opponents have to pay mind to him, the floor will open up. In addition, he’s an additional ball-mover that can make the extra pass after a closeout.
Santi Aldama is the bench’s other perimeter threat. His presence as a shooter and as a lob threat gives the offense more optionality and spacing (vertical, included). His playmaking can be spicy, daring, and overall welcomed. His defense is coming along. He’s been a rim deterrent — opponents are shooting 12.3% worse at the rim with Aldama as the protector, 98th percentile per The B-Ball Index — and he’s holding his own in switches. His development the next few months will be important, as the Grizzlies really need him to become a bonafide 7th man — and perhaps a potential closer in big games, too.
Vince Williams Jr., what a development. His defense provides role depth for perimeter stopping — as he’s already assigned (and excelled) guarding Luka Doncic, Tyrese Haliburton, among others. With his size (6’5” with a 7’0” wingspan), he can span and cover multiple positions. An important element with Williams is he knows his role. He keeps the ball moving and seeks open looks for the Big 3. He boasts shooting upside — 35.3% on 3.2 attempts per game, and making 41% of his non corner 3’s He’s been arguably the best pound-for-pound rebounder on the team, as he’s averaging a team-high 6.6 rebounds in December. He belongs in the rotation, and soon he should be on the main roster.
Will Taylor Jenkins really go 10?
Ziaire Williams
John Konchar
Taylor Jenkins has thrown out rotations anywhere between 9 and 10 players. We’re currently at 10. So if he goes with 10, who are we between?
Ziaire Williams has been inconsistent this season. When the game is made simple for him, he’s pretty effective. Too much creation responsibilities hurt him a bit. Defensively, he has tools and moments, but he’s a bit jumpy and over-helps. He’s been good next to Morant, and Jenkins openly said he wants to tap into their chemistry.
John Konchar is the safer option. Defensively, he's quick and creates defensive events — including monster blocks. He's an active rebounder as well. I'm a bit worried about potential size issues on the wing with only 1 player taller than 6’5” in the wing rotation. However, his ball movement and defense warrant rotation consideration.
I’m skeptical of a 10-man rotation, mainly because I want the minutes for Kennard and Vince Williams to be as maximized as possible, and you can’t really accomplish that with an extra body.
“Next Man Up”
David Roddy
Derrick Rose
I was a bit curious and surprised to see Roddy fall out of the rotation, after it seemed like he passed the other wings with a starting spot for a good portion of the 1st quarter of the season. He provides pop off the bench with his offensive game and his hustle. His outside shooting has been inconsistent, but has usually been more reliable with more attempts. His drives come in waves because of his size and handle, but he’s shown the ability to power through to the basket.
Derrick Rose has been a solid veteran presence in his minutes. I just don’t know if there are minutes and on-ball reps for him with Morant, Bane, and Smart in the fold — the role in which he’s best suited for. He’d arguably be at his best and more fresh in a “next man up” role in the event any of those guards has to miss time.
Development reps in Southaven
Jake LaRavia
Jacob Gilyard
GG Jackson
LaRavia’s outside shot hasn’t fallen, and that’s his ticket to playing time. Defense seems too fast for him right now. You can’t write off someone’s NBA prospects after 43 games and 513 minutes in his career — with half of them coming with no consistent rhythm in playing time. It’s smart to see if the game can slow down for LaRavia in the G League, while also hoping he regains confidence with his 3-point shooting.
Credit to Gilyard for stepping in and performing in spot minutes, but his size became a bit of a detriment to his impact. He should go back to his natural role of being a table-setter for the Hustle and aiding the development of the Grizzlies’ assignments.
GG Jackson will continue to be in Southaven, and nothing will change that for this season. The Grizzlies have intentions of using Jackson’s rookie season to round out his game before getting much playing time with the Hustle. Jackson should continue to use this time to build upon his two-way flashes, while becoming a more effective player.
Quick Stagger lineups I want to see
Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Xavier Tillman. This unit would be their best defensive lineup. It possesses major potential to switch a lot while boasting elite rim protection. It’d serve best in non-Ja minutes, but would be optimal against a team with a plethora of offensive weapons that seek out mismatches.
Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, Santi Aldama, Jaren Jackson Jr. The spacing here would be absolutely electric, opening up the floor for Morant and Jackson to operate downhill — whether it be off drives or in the post. Help off, and the Grizzlies have 3 legitimate threats to spray from 3. Last season, this unit sported a blistering 148.1 offensive rating and +27.3 NET rating in just 27 possessions together.
Ja Morant, Luke Kennard, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Bismack Biyombo. With Kennard and Williams, the Grizzlies can stagger Smart and Bane in Morant-less minutes, while replacing them with an elite outside shooter and a stellar defensive stopper. It should help them build early leads.
Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, either Williams or Kennard, Santi Aldama, Xavier Tillman. If Morant and Jackson are off the floor, this unit has the best capabilities of holding their own. I could’ve gone with either Williams or Kennard here. Kennard provides more outside shooting, and an additional playmaker with Smart and Bane. Williams generates more defensive events to ignite transition offense. The combination of Bane, Smart, and Aldama should provide enough offensive pop to survive the minutes Morant and Jackson are on the bench.
How Taylor Jenkins and the Grizzlies formulate the rotation and its substitution patterns with reinforcements back in the fold will be fascinating to watch — and should help the team find a rhythm.
Again, please knock on wood.
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