The Grizzlies roster outlook after re-signing Luke Kennard
The Memphis Grizzlies have finally re-signed Luke Kennard -- reaching an agreement for $11M for the 2024-25 season. What does it mean for the rest of the roster?
On June 29th, ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the Memphis Grizzlies and Luke Kennard were “eager to pursue a restructured deal” after they opted out of his $14.8M team option.
31 days later, the Grizzlies and Luke Kennard agreed to a one-year, $11M contract.
Everyone’s been waiting on this news. Now that it’s finalized, the Grizzlies’ offseason is likely complete. Let’s break down the different elements that lie within Kennard’s new contract and the Grizzlies’ roster going into the 2024-25 season.
What the Grizzlies are getting with retaining Luke Kennard?
Luke Kennard isn’t just a great 3-point shooter. He’s an elite shooter with the accuracy at historic measures. A call back from a feature in March:
Join Hubert Davis (6), Steph Curry (5), Kyle Korver (5), and Steve Kerr (4) as the only players to shoot 44% or better from 3 in 4 seasons.
Join Steph Curry as the only players to shoot 44% or better from 3 in 4 consecutive seasons — and to shoot 44% or better from 3 on at least 6 three-point attempts per game in multiple seasons.
If you lower the “shots per game” to 4, the list grows to include Korver, Steve Nash, Seth Curry, Joe Harris, Joe Ingles, JJ Redick, and Ray Allen. Kennard could accomplish this for his 3rd time (something only Steph, Korver, and Nash have done).
Kennard also leads the NBA in 3-point percentage over the past 5 seasons, among those qualified for the 3-point percentage leaderboard — canning 45.1% of his 3’s. Yes, 45% from 3 over the past 5 seasons.
The best way to build around a point guard like Ja Morant is to surround him with shooting. What better way to do that than by adding one of the best 3-point shooters into the rotation? His shooting opens the floor up for downhill attack — leaving defenses with a “pick your poison” of collapsing on the drive to leave open a shooter, or surrender points in the paint. For a team eager to bolster its halfcourt offense, adding more shooting is key.
While Kennard possess a meaningful elite skill, questions lie within his game. Health is a lingering one, as he’s had persistent knee issues through the majority of his career.
Even with his 3-point potency, the narrative around Kennard has been around his willingness to shoot. Since arriving to Memphis, he’s fired a career-best 6 three’s per game — equating to 8.5 per 36 minutes. Whether you think that’s enough or not is entirely up for debate. However, it’s a fine number for a reserve shooting guard — if anything, he can take a slight bump in “per minute” volume.
The question with all shooters is around what they provide aside from shooting. Kennard’s defense isn’t great, and it could hinder him in some matchups. He holds himself up in a team construct well enough where it doesn’t nullify or outweigh his offensive value. Offensively, he provides more of a playmaking punch than your traditional stationary shooter — making reads when the defense runs him off the line — and that was a selling point to the Grizzlies’ front office and coaching staff when acquiring Kennard.
All in all, retaining Luke Kennard is one heck of a way of rounding out the rotation. A 10-man rotation of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Luke Kennard, GG Jackson, Santi Aldama, and Vince Williams Jr. has a ton of balance and optionality.
What took so long?
Everyone probably still wonders why it took so long. The ultimate answer — we will never know, and it’s not really that important.
The money factor is key. The Grizzlies wanted to get themselves further away from the luxury tax by trading Ziaire Williams to the Brooklyn Nets.
And from there, we’ll never know other motivations — whether it was money, years, a mixture of both.
While there was angst over the timeliness of a move, it wasn’t as pressing as people suggested, especially since there’s no acclimation process for Kennard and the Grizzlies. Waiting allowed them time to gauge the market for other pathways to bolster the roster, while also re-signing Kennard.
Quick contract thoughts
The Grizzlies and Luke Kennard found a good balance with this contact. With the one-year contract, it gives both parties flexibility.
For Kennard, he has the opportunity to hit the free agency market one more time before turning 30 years old. Maybe the market is a bit more friendly league-wide next year, with teams building a better understanding of the new apron rules.
For the Grizzlies, they ensure cap flexibility to further bolster its roster either at the trade deadline or next offseason. People have already mentioned Kennard’s contract as an easy trade chip at the deadline. I’d hold my horses on that. Kennard is a valuable component to the Grizzlies’ system, as he fills a gap in a clear weakness. In addition, it seems like a stretch to suggest his contract is a trade chip when we don’t know how this team looks, who’s takes a leap (and to what degree), and who’s really available on the trade market.
The Grizzlies acquiring Kennard at a $11M this season is solid. It does put the Grizzlies a hair over the luxury tax — as Spotrac’s Keith Smith posted on X that it puts the Grizzlies about $1M over the luxury tax. In the same post, Keith did express that the latest the team can escape the luxury tax is the trade deadline. At this number, it gives the Grizzlies flexibility to escape the luxury tax with a minor move.
What’s next?
The Grizzlies roster currently stands at 18 (15 main roster spots and 3 two-way contracts filled).
(players ordered by position, not pecking order)
Likely starters: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
Likely bench: Vince Williams Jr., Luke Kennard, GG Jackson, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke
The next guys up (main roster): Derrick Rose, John Konchar, Jaylen Wells, Jake LaRavia, Mamadi Diakite
Two-way contracts: Scotty Pippen Jr., Cam Spencer, Jay Huff
This is a good roster with the optionality to further bolster its roster, whether it’s with extra maneuvering or with internal development.
What other roster dominos should we watch for? The Grizzlies could still make an extra move to get themselves out of the luxury tax, or to open an extra roster spot.
Mamadi Diakite, the player acquired in the trade for Ziaire Williams, is the player to watch. He could easily be waived, as just $1,392,150 of his roughly $2.27M has been guaranteed for next season — with a full trigger on January 10th, 2025. The Grizzlies could avoid eating his contract by trading him to another team. The Utah Jazz’s situation could be one to monitor, especially with them being over $20M away from the cap floor.
I don’t foresee any other sizable moves this offseason. It’s more likely Zach Kleiman waits to see what this team looks like in a healthier context before making further moves.
This offseason, the Memphis Grizzlies addressed their need at center, trimmed salary to get away from the first apron, and retained Luke Kennard.
Successful offseason.
The Grizzlies are aiming to reload next season, returning to contention status with a healthier context. Re-signing Luke Kennard to return to the bench is a component to that plan.
If you choose to support my Substack, SubTsakalidis — aka “SubTsak” — follow this link to my Allie’s Allies St. Jude fundraiser page. If you choose to subscribe, all proceeds will go towards St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.