Memphis Grizzlies projection in an expansion draft
If the NBA went through another expansion, how would it impact the Memphis Grizzlies?
Yes, I know the “who would [team X] protect in an expansion draft?” is common August and September content. However, two things bring me to this topic in this space.
For starters, the NBA inked a new TV deal worth $76B over 11 years between NBC, Disney, and Amazon. It automatically triggers conversations about NBA expansion. Adam Silver has discussed expansion during the NBA Finals media availability, and recently shared the idea of having either a tournament or a league in Europe. Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer brought up a potential doubt or concern with expansion from Silver — the possibility of diluting those payments with expanding the revenue pie from TV deals from 30 teams to 32. Nonetheless, the expansion conversations should start to heat up, one way or another, with this new TV contract.
I also recently read the book “Prehistoric: The Audacious and Improbable Origin Story of the Toronto Raptors” by Alex Wong. It was a phenomenal read where Wong did an awesome job of capturing the intricacies of building an expansion team — forming a sales team to sell season tickets on a team where the name and players are unknown, identifying who to have run the organization, the team name, the emotions of starting something from the ground up (lots of losing). Within the actually team-building construct, how the Raptors decided to build their team was quite fascinating. I won’t give away much of anything, but it was cool to see the semblances between the first season of the Toronto Raptors and a modern rebuilding team — targeting oft-used players with potential, acquiring veterans and potentially flipping them for assets, and having a young player be the face of the franchise.
So those two things have inspired me.
Let’s just say, Adam Silver introduces a revamped Seattle Supersonics and then the Las Vegas Spades — we need their first matchup in the Sphere.
(Quick note while we’re at it: I’d be cool with Memphis staying in the West, especially with Minnesota likely being the team going East. It takes out a fellow conference contender, and Memphis stays in a conference with two expansion teams with a few aging teams.)
What decisions would the Grizzlies have to face in an expansion draft? For the sake of the exercise, we’re going to pretend that this news was announced after the draft and free agency — even though it’ll usually be before the draft.
Two important expansion rules to note (the rest of the rules can be found on Spotrac):
A NBA team can protect up to 8 players — they either have to be on the roster for the following season, be a restricted free agent, or possess a team or player option the following season. A team cannot protect a unrestricted free agent. Drafted restricted free agents automatically become unrestricted and cannot rejoin old team.
A NBA team can only lose one player. So for example, if Seattle picks Jake LaRavia, then no other Memphis Grizzly can be picked in the expansion draft.
My clear protections
Ja Morant
Desmond Bane
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Marcus Smart
Zach Edey
GG Jackson
Vince Williams Jr.
I don’t need to elaborate on why I would protect the Big 3.
Marcus Smart is an elite role player that impacts winning at the highest levels. If he was ever unprotected in an expansion draft, not only would an expansion team scoop him up, the rest of the league would likely call with trade offers.
Zach Edey, GG Jackson, and Vince Williams Jr. are lumped into a key category within the constructs of the Memphis Grizzlies pecking order. They’re the top supplementary players next to the core — alongside Smart and likely Brandon Clarke. Each of them have the upside to eventually be the 4th guy next to the Big 3, Jackson and Edey specifically. In addition, the three players will make a combined $31,566,411 over the next three seasons. That’s absurd value for players that project to not only yield “playoff rotation player” value, but also possess real upside to become a high-end starter.
Who’s the 8th?
Santi Aldama
Brandon Clarke
Luke Kennard
In a real-life scenario, the expansion draft would be happening before 2025 NBA Draft. So Kennard wouldn’t be eligible to be protected, and Aldama would be a restricted free agent.
It’s a toss up to decide who would be the 8th player protected. Any of these players would likely be valuable picks to start an expansion team.
Aldama could be a potential jewel for any expansion team with his age, size, shooting, and ability to put the ball on the deck. Clarke and Kennard are high-floor efficiency monsters offensively and would be veteran guides to a, likely, young team — and eventually flipped for assets within the first year.
I’d lean towards protecting Clarke due to his fit within the team’s core. In this scenario, I’d likely steer an expansion GM away from selecting Kennard or Aldama by incentivizing them with a future second-round pick to pick someone else.
The unprotected ones (ordered by probability of being picked)
Jake LaRavia
John Konchar
Jaylen Wells
Scotty Pippen Jr.
Jay Huff
Cam Spencer
Derrick Rose
Mamadi Diakite
Of this tier, Jake LaRavia would be the most likely pick by a substantial margin. He possesses intriguing blend of size, shooting stroke, and knack of creating turnovers. He also showcased some untapped upside as a creator towards the end of last season. With two years left on his rookie contract, he could be a value play for an expansion team, especially if they covet young players on cost-controlled deals.
In this hypothetical, it could be advantageous to lend a second-round pick to an expansion team to pick John Konchar. He’s a serviceable role player, but he likely isn’t in the rotation as it stands today. The Grizzlies could get off some future money — and they would create a traded player exception worth approximately $6M, as teams over the cap receive a TPE of a selected player’s salary.
If teams utilize the draft or unprotected players to build around their core, Jaylen Wells would be a youthful source of shooting and upside.
I’d bet any of the two-way’s — Pippen, Spencer, or Huff — would be safe from getting picked. If any of them were selected, Scotty Pippen Jr. could be picked in an expansion draft if a team sees him as someone with potential to be a starting point guard.
Derrick Rose could be a good veteran get for an expansion team, but the Grizzlies offer more upside among its unprotected players.
Expansion will be a hot topic over the next several years. I’m enamored with the idea of an expansion. Does a team try an asset accumulation — stacking picks and young players, and long-gaming a rebuild? Does a team rush the process? Who runs the team from leadership, to the front office, to the coaching staff — does the league wait for LeBron to retire, so he can get into ownership? What are the names, brands, and identities? I hope it happens. It’s something new to shake things up, and becomes a new case study of team-building in the modern NBA. It’d be a lot of fun to watch.
If expansion happens, the new teams could capitalize on the Memphis Grizzlies’ depth in a potential expansion draft.
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