Predicting and breaking down opening Grizzlies 2023-24 rotation
The Memphis Grizzlies' rotation has been a hot topic coming into training camp. After preseason observations, let's take a crack at how it may shape out.
The Memphis Grizzlies are finally to regular season basketball this week. After offseason discourse, transactions, exhibitions from Summer League and preseason, it’s time to see all of the takes materialize.
One of the biggest talking points was the opening rotation. The Grizzlies have 3 rotation players out of the fray — Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke — leaving a starting spot and 1 or 2 extra rotation slots available. Arguably, 12 players have a solid case for consistent minutes in the 1st 25 games of the season. They could also add another player once Morant’s suspension hits the 5-game mark. There are numerous combinations out there for the Grizzlies, and Taylor Jenkins experimented them through the preseason.
After preseason observations, here’s how the Memphis Grizzlies opening rotation should look — tiered up.
The absences
Ja Morant
Brandon Clarke
Steven Adams
Let’s get away with the obvious (some temporary, 1 permanent) absences from the opening rotation.
There’s no need to re-hash Ja Morant and why he’s out… or the ESPN story and the narratives that come with it. There will be 25 games without him, he’ll be back in the starting lineup, and there should be no concern about his production.
From media press conferences, the Grizzlies are optimistic Brandon Clarke can play this season — though I don’t know how much his offseason touch-up procedure changes things. If he’s back this season, Adams’ injury opens a rotation spot for him off the bench. The Grizzlies have always been dominant with Clarke and Jaren Jackson — and it spreads with the starters. It wouldn’t shock me to see Jenkins give Clarke some run to allow him to get into a productive rhythm that could parlay into him locking up a rotation spot, once again.
And Steven Adams is now on this list. It’s an absolute bummer, and it leaves the margin for error so, so slim. More thoughts on the absence:
“Primarily Hustle”
Jacob Gilyard
GG Jackson
Vince Williams Jr.
Jacob Gilyard and GG Jackson will play the majority of their games with the Memphis Hustle. Of the 3, Vince Williams is the one that could see some main roster time.
Gilyard is a solid floor general with an impeccable ability to generate turnovers defensively. However, if the Grizzlies need to rely on depth for the point guard position, it’s more likely it’ll be with Derrick Rose or with a committee approach between Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and John Konchar.
This season should be a “redshirt year” for GG Jackson — as there’s a ton of room for improvement with his game, especially given his age (he should technically be a college freshman this year). His live-dribble creation is incredibly intriguing, and he’s had flashes on both sides of the ball that suggest he could develop into a good role player. The Grizzlies will use the Hustle to tap into his potential, while also preparing him for what’s asked from him on the main roster.
Don’t sleep on Vince Williams Jr. and his potential impact with the Grizzlies — not just in the years to come, but next season. He could get his number called. He provides a lot of potential defensively with his quickness and length, the traits to become a menace on that side of the ball. He flashed a jumper in Summer League, and that’s his ticket to a consistent NBA role. Worth noting, he only played in 15 games in the G League last season, so the Grizzlies will likely prefer to let him get reps in Southaven.
Go support them at the Landers Center.
“If they go 10, who’s the 10th?” / The Next Men Up
Kenneth Lofton Jr.
Jake LaRavia
John Konchar
Taylor Jenkins could decide to roll with 9 players in the rotation to start the season. However, he’s shown the willingness to run a 10-man rotation.
Kenneth Lofton Jr. could very well be up to the plate in Adams’ absence. While he’s growing all-around — defense and playmaking, to be specific — his game is predicated on scoring the basketball. When his number is called, he won’t be asked to score, unless the time is in dire need of a bucket. It’s an adjustment that’ll determine his role going forward. His lack of size and vertical pop hampers his rim protection, as the interior defense is more of a house of cards — depending on who he shares the floor with.
I’d lean towards having Jackson and Tillman be the 5 all 48 minutes in staggered fashion, and consider LaRavia or Konchar for the 10th and final spots. It’s more malleable against various coverages, and these players fill gaps better than Lofton.
In the midst of a competitive race for minutes on the wings, John Konchar and Jake LaRavia were out. Per Daily Memphian’s Drew Hill, Konchar has been out for personal reasons. LaRavia sat for 2 games with a wrist injury after trying to annihilate Pat Connaughton at the rim in last week’s preseason game.
Daily Memphian’s Chris Herrington posed the “Konchar or Rose” question. It’s a logical one. While it’s usually staggered, a bench backcourt of Rose and Kennard is spotty defensively. Konchar generates defensive events and hauls in rebounds, even though Rose provides more scoring pop. If the Grizzlies need more defense off the bench, Jenkins may call up Jitty back into the rotation. As the 10th man with Rose in the fold though, there may be a size disadvantage on the perimeter.
LaRavia was making a case for a rotation spot in his first two preseason games, scoring 30 points through 2 outings. He was the only wing taking and making outside shots — though efficiency will be key as well. His aggression bled into his live-dribble game, attacking closeouts for scoring or free throw opportunities at the rim. Over the past several months, he’s displayed audacity downhill, trying to stuff his defender on a poster at a moment’s notice. Defensively, he’s not the best point-of-attack defender, but he seeks chances to bother the defense with his hands to rack up steals or deflections. His production and efficiency should improve in a normalized role next to rotation players.
Lofton, LaRavia, and Konchar all have the skillsets to succeed in “next man up” situations. That opportunity may come quickly after Adams’ injury.
In rotation … for now
David Roddy
Derrick Rose
Roddy and Rose should be in the 10-man rotation on opening night and through the 1st 25 games. It’s not set in stone over the entirety of an 82-game season though.
Rose is a veteran table-setter capable of orchestrating the offense for spurts. His preseason Grizzlies debut showed the ability to provide microwave scoring here and there, the cherry on top of the sundae for the Rose/Memphis experience. His defense is shaky, and if he's out of the rotation (healthily), that’s likely why. Nonetheless, it seems like Jenkins trusts him and will play him to start the season.
Roddy has a chance to cement his place in the rotation. His slot here comes from the possibility of keeping Rose in the rotation, as well as if his offensive production is inconsistent. He can score in bunches as a driver and shooter, but there are nights where he struggles in these areas. His defensive potential is intriguing. He can switch up and down positions, and his sturdy build gives him potential as an imposing point-of-attack defender.
"Bonafide bench guys”
Santi Aldama
Luke Kennard
Aldama and Kennard will be fixtures off the bench this season.
Leading the league in 3-point shooting the past two seasons, Kennard is its primary perimeter option off the bench. The Grizzlies are a buzzsaw when the sharpshooter’s in the fold, as they scored 13.1 more points per 100 possessions with him on the floor last season — per Cleaning the Glass. With a full training camp under his belt, the Grizzlies will look to utilize him more, especially with the ball in his hands. We should see a more maximized Kennard than we’ve seen in past years, though its execution should be interesting between him, Morant, Smart, and Bane.
Aldama is the biggest x-factor. He also fascinating live-dribble juice that allows for him to be a perimeter asset with his shooting and passing. Confidence and production carrying over from a strong FIBA performance could parlay into another leap. He needs to improve as a defender and rebounder, but if he could elevate from “9th man” territory to “6th-7th man” zone, this team’s ceiling next season rises.
The opening night 5
Marcus Smart
Desmond Bane
Ziaire Williams
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Xavier Tillman
The Grizzlies’ opening night starting lineup was up in the air going into training camp, as a competitive battle for minutes will yield an answer down to the preseason buzzer.
It was Ziaire Williams who answered the call. The 3rd-year wing showed signs of bouncing back from a sophomore slump. The confidence beamed in his game. The jumper looked smooth and more refined. He showed more poise and decisive off the dribble — whether it was operating the pick-and-roll, or attacking closeouts.
Though losing Morant is a huge offensive hit, his potential unit should hold down the fort in his absence.
Bane and Jackson will be the primary offensive options, and they’re surrounded by solid complementary pieces. Don’t be shocked if one of them is averaging 25+ points per game in the first quarter of the season.
Bane and Smart are underrated playmakers capable of co-piloting initiating responsibilities. Williams is likely be more of a play finisher, but flashes from preseason suggest he could capitalize in live-dribble situations in side actions or off the catch. Replacing Steven Adams, Tillman will be called upon for screening, rebounding, and high-post facilitation. He could help the Grizzlies stay the course in his absence if the 3-ball willingness and accuracy are there.
Defensively is where their potential is so intriguing. Everyone’s ready to see Jackson and Smart, the league’s past 2 Defensive Player of the Year winners, wreak havoc together. Ziaire Williams and Xavier Tillman are great complementary pieces — capable of handling a variety of matchups (Ziaire for guards/wings, Tillman for wings/bigs).
There’s also optionality, the ability to maneuver pieces around dependent on the matchup or adjustment. Smart and Williams may rotate who covers the primary initiator. Williams in that role allows for Smart and Jackson to roam — oh my.
With this infrastructure in tact, they could charge out the gates with a league-best defense.
Obviously, this starting lineup is temporary until Ja Morant returns. Nonetheless, it’s a combination that could surely hold down the fort in the Wild, Wild West until its star point guard is back in action.
This rotation won’t be set in stone through the 1st 25 games. Unforeseen injuries aside, there will be games where they’re cautious with minutes and have players sit out with soreness designations. Jenkins could further tweak the rotation to find the right combinations to roll with. Players could work their way in and out of the rotation. Nothing is totally off the table.
While it’s not a permanent solution, this potential plan could prove to be successful for the Grizzlies, and it will be fascinating to watch Jenkins test out the rotation to find the right groove and fit with this roster.
If you choose to support my Substack, SubTsakalidis — aka “SubTsak” — follow this link to my Allie’s Allies St. Jude fundraiser page. If you choose to subscribe, all proceeds will go towards St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital.