Memphis Grizzlies, Oklahoma City Thunder Playoff Series Preview: Storylines and Keys
What are the developments to monitor in the first-round playoff series against the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder?
WHO: Memphis Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in the Western Conference) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14, 1st in the Western Conference)
SCHEDULE:
HOW TO LISTEN: 92.9 (ESPN)
INACTIVE LIST: Thunder — Ousmane Dieng (OUT, LT Calf Strain), Nikola Topic (OUT, LT Knee Surgery). Grizzlies — Brandon Clarke (OUT, RT Knee PCL Spain), Jaylen Wells (OUT, RT Wrist Fracture/Facial Laceration/Concussion Protocol), GG Jackson (OUT, Personal Reasons). All two-way contract players are ineligible for postseason basketball.
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS: Thunder — Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein. Grizzlies — Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder are facing off in the postseason for an unlikely first-round matchup. The series between these two teams felt inevitable sooner rather than later.
The intersection between these two organizations is layered. Dating back to the start of the 2010s, the Grizzlies and Thunder had three thrilling playoff series. Although neither team won a title in that iteration, the two squads were staples in postseason basketball of that decade.
In 2019, the Grizzlies and Thunder started anew, tearing down into rebuilds. Both teams outperformed projections immediately. The Grizzlies kept things rolling — making the postseason through the play-in in 2021, then as the second seed in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Ja Morant’s meteoric rise was the catalyst, and Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. have become the perfect star complements to complete their Big 3. The Thunder continued their asset play around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and the 2022 draft changed their trajectory with Chet Holgrem and Jalen Williams — the latter coming from a pick-the-all-time trade with the Clippers for Paul George.
Both teams have excelled around the margins. Through the years, the Grizzlies have struck value later in the draft and made moves on the margins with Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, De’Anthony Melton, Tyus Jones, Xavier Tillman, Scottie Pippen Jr., and Jaylen. The Thunder has done this with Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, and Kenrich Williams. This doesn’t include using top-10 picks on Zach Edey and Cason Wallace. The Thunder further amplified it with cap space and a young player to acquire Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein.
The 2020s are halfway through, and both the Grizzlies and Thunder are aiming to win a championship this decade. Over the past few years, everyone has known these two teams have to get through each other to accomplish this goal. As the Grizzlies rose to the top of the West, the Thunder continued their rebuild. When the Thunder soared to an unprecedented rise, the Grizzlies have dealt with injuries and more adversity.
Now, they’re on a collision course for this playoff series.
In their first playoff series — and hopefully not their last — what are the things I’m looking for between the Grizzlies and Thunder?
Matchup I’m watching for: Desmond Bane vs. Jalen Williams
Desmond Bane and Jalen Williams both changed the calculus for their respective teams rather quickly. Their emergence as secondary creators allowed their teams to not fork over premium assets for the 3rd stars.
They both create for their teams in different ways. Bane has evolved into a three-level scorer and is more of a flamethrower with his accuracy and volume. Williams attacks more inside the arc within the mid-range and the rim.
While Bane has been a solid defender, Williams trends closer to All-Defense level, because his size and length enables more versatility.
Nonetheless, both players developed into star-level secondary creators to co-pilot the offense next to All-NBA guards.
The gap between these two players will decide how far this series will go. Both players are capable of taking over games. Not only can they swing a game, they can change the entire outcome of a series.
While everyone will be watching Ja Morant and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, or Jaren Jackson Jr. and Chet Holmgren, I’ll be watching the performances between Desmond Bane and Jalen Williams.
Get ready to learn John Konchar, buddy
John Konchar has usually been the next man up for Memphis. This season, he was pushed a little behind in the pecking order, averaging a career-low in minutes while only playing in 46 games.
Well, now the Grizzlies need him. The injuries to Jaylen Wells and Brandon Clarke have zapped their perimeter defense and versatility. Vince Williams and GG Jackson never really answered the call this season after their returns from long injuries.
In the last two play-in games, Konchar hasn’t disappointed. He’s always in the mix on the glass. Though not a frequent shooter, he runs the floor and identifies gaps where he can get easy offense. Hems doesn’t make many mistakes, especially as a ball-mover. He’s a sharp perimeter defender — navigating screens, rarely falling for his fakes, and having a nose for the basketball. Tuomas Iisalo specifically pointed to his perimeter defense on Klay Thompson as a key in slowing down his three-point attack.
Konchar will continue to be important for Memphis in this series with his perimeter defense, mistake-free basketball against a feisty Thunder team, and his value in the possessions game.
Battle of role players
Role players can really swing the direction of a series. The Thunder saw that happen last year with Derrick Jones Jr., PJ Washington, and Dereck Lively. The Grizzlies have been on the receiving end of it with Otto Porter and Rui Hachimura — Brandon Clarke did it for Memphis against Minnesota in 2022.
So who will shine in this series?
The Thunder have two players as All-Defense candidates with Alex Caruso and Lu Dort, who will see a lot of time on Ja Morant and De’Aaron Fox. Don’t sleep on Cason Wallace. Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins can get hot from three.
I want to focus on three Memphis Grizzlies here: Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr., and Zach Edey.
Aldama has to be on point. He can exploit the Thunder’s lack of size on the perimeter with his shooting, as he can be unbothered by their closeouts. He can leverage it with attacking closeouts, where his handle, physicality, and passing have to be pristine to avoid turnovers against this tenacious. He’ll have time having to battle in the trenches with Holmgren and Hartenstein.
Pippen arguably has the biggest series of any of the role players, mainly because of his responsibilities. Yes, he has to hit shots and provide playmaking. His defense is paramount for this series. He’ll likely be the primary defender on Gilgeous-Alexander, having to deal with his relentless downhill attack consisting of flexibility, physicality, and tough shot-making.
Edey will have his hands full keeping Hartenstein in check on the glass. In addition, Hartenstein is an elite rim protector as well. He’s going to look to make looks tough for him, so Edey’s finishing will be one to keep eyes on. Nonetheless, his value in the possessions game will be immense this series.
Pick-and-roll
The pick-and-roll will be prevalent in this game.
Let’s start with Memphis. The Grizzlies spent the majority of the season running an uncharacteristic amount of pick-and-roll. Since Tuomas Iisalo has taken over as the interim head coach, the Grizzlies have gone from running pick-and-roll offense roughly 20% of possessions to anywhere between 40-50% — per friend of the platform, Adam Pike.
It feels like very little coincidence that Ja Morant has found a groove with this strategic change — worth noting, the shift was in the midst after the All-Star break. He closed the regular season with averages of 29.8 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 57.8% on 2’s and 35.1% on 3’s since the start of March, the final 13 games.
His two games against the Thunder were a challenge, as he shot just 14-41 (34.1%) from the field. The Thunder had Caruso guard him, whose point-of-attack defense made it difficult for Morant to get downhill. It glared more in February with the reluctance of ball screens.
How will Morant’s offense look downhill with more frequent ball screens? Will the ankle hinder him there? The Thunder defense is historic. Their point-of-attack defense and versatility are unmatched. It will be a fascinating battle.
On the other side of the floor, Gilgeous-Alexander has 18.3 plays finished out of the pick-and-roll as a scorer and passer — the fifth most in the NBA. He also leads the NBA in drives at 20.3 per game. Aforementioned, Scotty Pippen Jr. will have his hands full with Gilgeous-Alexander. When it comes to the pick-and-roll, the Thunder will put Edey and Jackson to the test.
They’ll look to get Edey into ball screens, as drop coverage could lead to mid-range jumpers. In addition, bringing him up away to open up activity behind the second line of defense. With Jackson, he’s more than capable of defending in space and guarding about any archetype. However, will the Thunder look to draw switches to get Jackson in foul trouble? After all, Gilgeous-Alexander is third in the league in free throw attempts per game.
How the Memphis Grizzlies operate in the pick-and-roll will be intriguing to watch on both sides of the ball, as they’re going up against a two-way machine in Oklahoma City.
The Memphis Grizzlies aren’t facing the Oklahoma City Thunder in a later series. Their close to the season may decrease the optimism in the series outcome. It’s maybe caused expectations to shift. The Thunder had the 2nd-best NET rating of all time this season, and the Grizzlies navigated adversity and coaching change at the end of the season.
Who knows what could happen? Ultimately, I’d lean with the Thunder winning in 5 or 6 games. The Grizzlies have built good momentum with their play since the coaching change — even if the record doesn’t reflect it. They could make it a tough series.
The Grizzlies’ series against the Thunder could lay the groundwork going forward to re-solidify their contender status.
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