Where things lie for Grizzlies offseason, Ziaire Williams
Where things lie for Grizzlies offseason, Ziaire Williams
The Memphis Grizzlies' offseason has moved quite slow, but what they decide with Ziaire Williams may open things up to re-sign Luke Kennard.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ offseason has been quiet since they acquired Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, and Cam Spencer with their picks on draft week.
They currently have two free agents from last year’s team: Luke Kennard and Lamar Stevens. No buzz is out there on Stevens — and that’s not all that surprising. The reporting with Luke Kennard has been consistent: it’s likely for him to return to Memphis. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski even reported that the two sides were “eager” to work out a new deal.
It’s July 17th now. What’s going on?
The new CBA aprons have clearly impacted not just the Grizzlies, but the rest of the league. Plenty of good players are still on the free agency market: Kennard, Tyus Jones, Markelle Fultz, Gordon Hayward, Lonnie Walker, Cedi Osman, Isaac Okoro, Precious Achiuwa. Teams are clearly operating differently to avoid costly team-building penalties. Only 1 team has used the full $12.3M non-taxpayer mid-level exception this summer — Golden State with De’Anthony Melton.
For the Memphis Grizzlies, they currently have the $12.3M non taxpayer mid-level exception. However, since they’re roughly $11.5M under the 1st apron, they would be hard-capped at the 1st apron if they use anything at or above that number — according to Spotrac’s Keith Smith. If the Grizzlies are hard-capped at the 1st apron, here are the consequences under the new CBA:
They’d lose any trade exceptions generated from the past season. For Memphis, they’d lose the $12.6M trade exception generated from the Steven Adams trade.
They have to either equal the money coming in via trade, or exceed the money. For example, they cannot trade Ziaire Williams and John Konchar (both making roughly $12.5M) for a player with $12.7M on their contract.
They cannot sign a buyout player that made more than the non taxpayer mid-level exception on their previous contract.
That’s a substantial penalty.
How the Grizzlies maneuver the rest of the offseason to ultimately work around the luxury tax penalties could revolve around their decision on Ziaire Williams.
The Athletic’s Shams Charania briefly reported in his latest intel notebook that the Grizzlies were discussing trade deals for Ziaire Williams. It doesn’t come at much surprise. He’s been surpassed in the rotation by GG Jackson, Vince Williams, and Jake LaRavia. If the Grizzlies need to go deeper into the bench, John Konchar has proven to be more reliable.
I’ve also pointed this out this several times this offseason — between Williams and Konchar, the Grizzlies have over $12M in players likely not in the rotation. That’s a steep price for a team pushing the luxury tax, especially when trying to retain a rotation player. Williams makes more sense to trade because of his expiring contract — and if a team likes what they see, his restricted free agency makes him easier to retain.
There are 3 potential pathways for moving Ziaire Williams this summer.
Trade him for a player that fits a lower salary number.
Trade him to a team with the space to take him without bringing anything back.
Waive and stretch his contract out over the next 3 seasons.
Before diving into these mechanisms, I need to provide salary context. Per Spotrac, the Grizzlies are currently $6.2M away from the luxury tax and $11.5M from the first apron. The Grizzlies also have 14 roster spots.
Trade him for a player that fits a lower salary number
If the Grizzlies find a trade for Ziaire Williams, they could replace his roster slot with a player that comes in at a lower salary number and is likely a cleaner fit.
For the sake of the exercise, let’s give this framework:
Ziaire Williams and 2 second-round picks to the Brooklyn Nets for Day’Ron Sharpe. This trade paves the way for Noah Clowney to get backup 5 minutes. And as the Mikal Bridges blockbuster indicates, the Nets are in a new era with their sights set on the “Capture the Flagg” race. A young wing on an expiring contract is a good flier for them. In addition, Memphis gets their 5th big — one that’s an incredibly productive offensive rebounder.
Per FanSpo, the Grizzlies would save $2.1M in this trade — leaving them approximately $8.3M away from the luxury tax, and $13.6M away from the first-apron.
A few more trade ideas under this exercise.
A wild challenge trade would be something with the Clippers: Ziaire Williams for Russell Westbrook. But really who sends draft capital? This trade would save the Grizzlies an extra $2.1M, similar to the Day’Ron Sharpe trade above. In addition, the Grizzlies could waive and stretch Westbrook for $1.3M per season over the next 3 years — which could save the Grizzlies another $2.7M this season ($11M away from luxury tax, and $16.3M away from the first apron).
Not as fun, but could the Grizzlies and Jazz work out deal with Williams going to Utah for Darius Bazley? Maybe with a second-round pick swap? The move would initially save the Grizzlies $3.6M — moving them $9.8M away from the luxury tax, and $15.1M away from the first apron. In addition, Bazley’s contract is not guaranteed. He’ll be guaranteed $400,000 of his $2.46M contract on July 25th — if still rostered — then another $600,000 by opening night, and the rest of it by January 10th, 2025. So the Grizzlies could theoretically take him into training camp for a closer look, and if it doesn’t pan out, then the Grizzlies could cut him without much financial implications. Waiving him before opening night would save the Grizzlies an additional $2M — bringing them $11.8M away from the luxury tax, and $17.1M away from the first apron (without accounting for Luke Kennard’s next contract).
Either maneuver could allow for the Grizzlies to re-sign Luke Kennard, while potentially staying around the luxury tax. It gives them a roster spot to work with for flexibility — something of the Grizzlies’ interest, as reported by the Commercial Appeal’s Damichael Cole. I don’t blame them for keeping an open roster spot, as it allows them to really utilize it to assess what they need over the course of the season — bruising big, stretch big, extra shooting, etc.. The past 2 seasons, they’ve had to cut small guaranteed contracts (Kennedy Chandler and Kenneth Lofton Jr.) to fill a need.
Trading Ziaire Williams into another team’s cap space
The Grizzlies could do a good ole “salary dump.” The problem is, there aren’t many teams out to deal with that have the cap space to do so. Detroit has just enough cap space to take in Williams’ contract, while barely staying under the cap.
The real wild card is the Utah Jazz. The Jazz could have around $32M in cap space. However, it revolves around how they go about Lauri Markkanen’s future. Starting August 6th, the Jazz could renegotiate and extend Markkanen’s contract using their cap space. In the meantime, it’s heavily reported that Danny Ainge is fielding offers — setting an astronomical price of draft capital for his All-Star 7-footer. If a team gives the Jazz an offer they cannot refuse, they could become a hotbed for absorbing contracts with draft capital.
I don’t see this type of trade happening with Ziaire Williams, mainly due to the lack of suitors with optimal cap space. If this is indeed the path though, the Grizzlies would now be $12.3M away from the luxury tax — the exact number of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception — and $17.6M away from the first-apron.
Waive and stretch
It’s not the sexiest option, but if the Grizzlies don’t find a trade that suits them, they could simply waive and stretch Ziaire Williams.
According to Spotrac’s Keith Smith, this is what a “waive and stretch” would entail and open up for the Grizzlies:
Waiving and stretching Williams would work out to roughly $2M per year (You take the current salary and stretch it by twice the number of years remaining, plus a year. So, that's three years at about $2M or so per year). That'd free up about $4M in wiggle room. That'd bring Memphis up to $15.5M under the first apron. Again, enough to use the full NTMLE with enough room for a veteran minimum signing to fill the 15th roster spot.
This move would bring the Grizzlies about $10.2M away from the luxury tax.
If the number for Kennard is in this ballpark, this move could be a sensible pathway for them. A contract worth $20M over 2 years will have them just barely missing the luxury tax.
Again, it’s more boring than finding the right trade for Williams. However, it makes sense, because it preserves a roster spot and their draft capital for them to make their next move — perhaps at the trade deadline.
The Grizzlies’ offseason might appear at a standstill, but it seems to be with intention to ensure as much flexibility as possible.
The Grizzlies and Luke Kennard are likely headed for a reunion. However, this new world of aprons may hinder them from ensuring to get him at an agreed number. At the same time, the Grizzlies want to make sure that they don’t erase any team-building mechanisms that could benefit them in a midseason deal.
Unfortunately, it may come at the expense of Ziaire Williams’ future with the Memphis Grizzlies. Can the Grizzlies work out a trade? I mean, sure. While Williams has been an inconsistent contributor, he’s still a 22 year-old wing and is on an expiring contract. If it works out on his next team, with the assumption the resolution is a trade, they have the cost control of restricted free agency. Otherwise, he’s off their books next season.
What’s most likely to happen? I’d lean towards moving Williams for a smaller — or non-guaranteed salary — that at least has a lower cap hit if they are waived, or maybe even stretched. That way, it accomplishes 3 goals of retaining Luke Kennard, maintaining a roster spot, and saving money towards the salary cap.
While things have been moving slow for the Grizzlies this offseason, it could open up sooner rather than later, but it may determine Ziaire Williams’ future in Memphis.
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