Looking at Grizzlies’ offseason flexibility
What can the Memphis Grizzlies do to improve the roster this season?
When the Memphis Grizzlies’ season ended, everything shifted to what’s next.
It’s more likely than not to see the Grizzlies’ roster shuffle. With the assumption that Santi Aldama is re-signed, the Grizzlies will have three roster spots open with Luke Kennard, Lamar Stevens, and Marvin Bagley entering free agency. In addition, they won’t have a first-round pick to roster.
Given this information, what can the Grizzlies do this summer? Their flexibility revolves around Jaren Jackson Jr.’s All-NBA status.
If Jaren Jackson Jr. does make All-NBA … or waits until next summer
If Jaren Jackson Jr. makes an All-NBA team this year, he becomes eligible for a five-year extension up to $345M. An extension would kick in starting in the 2026-27 season, keeping Jackson in Memphis for the remainder of the decade.
The Grizzlies could also operate as an over-the-cap team. What does this entail?
The Grizzlies will have access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception that’s worth $14.9M. Operating as a mechanism for trades and free agency, the Grizzlies would have a sizable asset to bolster the roster with a player that can add value towards their quest for a postseason run.
Only one team used the full mid-level exception last summer, as most teams don’t want to be in the apron. With the Grizzlies sitting roughly $50M away from the luxury tax, they wouldn’t be sweating here. With only one team possessing cap space (Brooklyn), could the Grizzlies strike in free agency on guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker?
As an over-the-cap team, they can hold on to Luke Kennard and Marvin Bagley’s cap holds to facilitate a sign-and-trade. While it’s tough to really gauge what’s possible in a sign-and-trade, it’s still a vehicle to get moves done.
Santi Aldama will have a cap hold sitting at $11.9M. I wonder if that number is above or below it, as most teams aren’t flush with cap space for a monster offer sheet. I’d still make him a priority to re-sign. He’s a 24-year-old 7-footer that can legitimately dribble, pass, and shoot — and has hit shots in the playoffs (numbers). While critics are loud about his defense, the reality about his skillset and production are key off the bench — especially since he can play with Jaren Jackson Jr. and/or Zach Edey.
Fans will chirp about how they don’t want Jackson to receive a super-max contract. However, it gives them the most flexibility to bolster the roster this summer.
Jackson could always push NBA negotiations to next summer to see if he makes an All-NBA team, or where he could get a five-year, $295M extension from Memphis. However, no one should want an expiring contract decision of this magnitude to loom over the season, especially with the added pressure of reaching contention.
If Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t make the All-NBA team — renegotiation and extension route
If Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t make an All-NBA team, you’ll likely hear something about running a renegotiation and extension.
How did the Grizzlies enter this situation? Because they traded Marcus Smart for expiring money, they have the flexibility to open up cap space to renegotiate the number of Jackson’s final year of his deal, and extend off it. An extension without super-max would be 140% of the final year of his deal with 8% raises each season.
To generate cap space, they’ll have to renounce the cap holds for Kennard and Bagley. Not only does this rule out them returning to Memphis, but it erases the possibility of a sign-and-trade.
(For the following contract situations I’m about to go through, I’m using Cleaning the Glass — which doesn’t give the exact dollar amount, i.e. $17,648,204, rather a rounded version of it, $17.6M).
If they solely renounce the cap holds for Kennard ($17.6M) and Bagley ($23.8M), they’d open up $6M in cap space. From there, Jackson would be at $29.4M for the 2025-26 season. An extension would become four years and roughly $185.5M ($41.16M in 2026-27, $44.453M in 2027-28, $48.00924M in 2028-29, $51.85M in 2029-30) — totaling to $191.5M in new money.
That’s still lower than what he could receive next summer.
The Grizzlies could salary-dump John Konchar, though would rather draft compensation and a team willing to absorb salary. The Grizzlies would then have $10.9M in cap space, allowing Jackson’s 2025-26 salary to bump to $34.3M. An extension would then become four years and $216.4M ($48.02 in 2026-27, $51.862M in 2027-28, $56.011M in 2028-29, $60.492M in 2029-30) — close to $227M in new money. Could that do it? Perhaps.
From there, the Grizzlies’ flexibility decreases a little bit, compared to how it looks with super-max eligibility.
They wouldn’t have the sign-and-trade possibilities with Kennard and Bagley. If they salary-dump Konchar to boost the number for Jackson’s renegotiation-and-extension, another mid-sized salary — although rather small — is out the door for other trades. Because they used cap space, they wouldn’t have the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but instead they’d have an $8.8M room exception — in both scenarios, they also have a biannual exception worth roughly $5.5M, but you can’t use this and the MLE in the same offseason.
Locking up Jackson long-term is the priority this summer, without a doubt. If renegotiation-and-extension is the move, it requires extra creativity to bolster the roster.
Trade assets and picks
The Grizzlies have control of all their first-round picks after this draft. Any trade involving next year’s first-round pick will have to be a swap because of the Stepien rule, but they can trade any of their first’s up to 2031. They also have the 48th and 56th picks in this draft, and four second-round picks in 2026, 2027, 2028, and 2031 respectively.
On the other hand, the Grizzlies don’t have many mid-sized contracts to utilize in trades this summer. It revolves around two players: Brandon Clarke and John Konchar.
Could Konchar paired with one of the smaller salaries (Vince Williams, GG Jackson, or Jay Huff) bring in a playoff rotation player? Potentially, mainly depending on the draft compensation.
Clarke will be the tricky one. He’s not only been a vital component to the team’s on-court production, but also to the culture. He’s one of the few players that’s been there since the beginning of this iteration. His efficiency, versatility, and motor have been critical in high-leverage situations. At the same time, teams have had to make hard, emotional moves if they felt it improved their title chances — Marcus Smart and Robert Williams in Boston in 2023, Gary Harris in Denver in 2021, and to the highest degree Demar DeRozan in Toronto in 2018.
Other than that, the Grizzlies could leverage its MLE or cap room exceptions for trades. They can maybe swap smaller contracts, but how substantial would that be?
Obviously, the Grizzlies could use any of the Big 3 in the trade, only a possibility as Zach Kleiman mentioned being “more open-minded” to constructing this roster. Let me be clear, I don’t see any of them being moved for a collection of role players and young prospects. If anything, it’d be to bring in a guy that can push two of the three down the pecking order. Still, I’d make the focus trying to bolster the roster around the Big 3, not at the expense of it.
Nonetheless, the Grizzlies can have opportunities to add around the margins to have a roster more equipped for postseason success through the trade market, but requiring more creativity.
While they aren’t flushed out with extra picks, or a plethora of mid-sized contracts, the Grizzlies have the flexibility to tweak the roster, although Jackson’s All-NBA bid may determine how creative they have to be. Even then, the Grizzlies are at a unique spot where they’ll likely have three open roster spots, most of their picks, and are far away from the luxury tax. After Jackson’s next deal, who knows when that could happen again?
The Memphis Grizzlies’ offseason will involve creativity and tough decisions to get the roster back towards being a team capable of reaching the Western Conference Finals.
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Great article!