Memphis Grizzlies lottery scenarios
The NBA Draft Lottery is happening this weekend. What could possibly be in play for the Memphis Grizzlies this draft season?
The NBA Draft Lottery is 3 days away, and the Memphis Grizzlies will participate in it for the 1st time since 2020 — when they conveyed their pick to Boston, as they possessed the lowest odds for their top-6 protected 1st. The year before that, the Grizzlies jumped from 9th to the 2nd pick to land Ja Morant.
The Grizzlies currently possess the 7th-best odds. And for those unfamiliar with the lottery process, they use lottery balls to determine the top-4 picks, and 5-14 will go by record of the remaining teams. So it’s impossible for the Grizzlies to finish with the 5th or 6th pick — as they can go either in the top-4, remain in 7th, or slip to 8th-10th. Here are the percentages, per Tankathon:
I’m going to preface these scenarios with my frame of reasoning. The Grizzlies should look to take 1 of these guys — if available:
Alex Sarr
Donovan Clingan
Reed Sheppard
Ron Holland
Nikola Topic
Stephon Castle
No order right now. When it comes to magnitude of preferences, it’s Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan and Ron Holland, then everyone else.
If none of those guys are available, I’d look to trade down — or even out — for teams wanting to take Cody Williams, Rob Dillingham, or Matas Buzelis. They could even veer safe and go with Dalton Knecht, especially if they feel like they can’t keep Luke Kennard (though Kennard→Knecht is not an upgrade).
Let’s walk through some potential scenarios, and I’ll have Rich Stayman (aka MavsDraft) help me outline how the draft may shake out given these possibilities.
Most likely: 8th pick
How board can shake out (via MavsDraft):
Alex Sarr
Zaccharie Risacher
Matas Buzelis
Ron Holland
Donovan Clingan
Nikola Topic
Rob Dillingham
The Grizzlies are most likely to drop down a shot for the 8th pick, which makes it more dicey for their (presumptive) go-get guys to be off the board.
In this instance, Reed Sheppard and Stephon Castle would still be on the board, which would be quite the development for the 8th pick. They could also explore trade-down or trade-out possibilities, something that’s more enticing with Sheppard and Castle still on the board. However, I’d stick with picking Sheppard or Castle, which could be helpful for depth if they feel like they’ll not be able to afford Luke Kennard.
Board of preferences: Castle, Sheppard, trade-down to acquire rotation player and lower pick, trade-out
Jump into the top-4 (31.9%)
The Grizzlies are nearly just as likely to jump into the top-4 than fall back to 8, or to even stay at 7. So if you’re a “glass half full” kind of person, this has you excited.
Let’s start with the best possibility of all — the number 1 pick:
If the Grizzlies get the 1st pick, it’s pretty much Alex Sarr no matter what. Could they trade it? Sure, but no one worth moving the 1st pick for will likely enter the trade market.
But what about a trade down? The only team that strikes me as a good partner here is Washington. Could they poach Deni Advija with a pick swap? They can match salaries with the combination of Santi Aldama, Ziaire Williams, and John Konchar. So those 3 + 1 for Advija + 5? If both parties are interested, and you believe Clingan is going to be on the board, that’s a clear path to bolster their chances at title contention.
Preference: Sarr, or no-brainer trade down for top-5 pick and a young complementary core piece
If the Grizzlies get the 2nd pick…
Board:
Alex Sarr
With the Wizards taking Sarr, Donovan Clingan, Ron Holland, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, and Nikola Topic are left on on the board. Zaccharie Risacher is still on the board, and the Grizzlies could field interest from teams vying to trade up to snag him.
The Grizzlies have an intriguing trade-down possibility, as maybe Detroit offers Duren/5 for similar salary (Santi Aldama?) and 2. However, I don’t see that happening, unless Detroit has legitimate interest to either grab Clingan or sign Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency.
Preferences: Clingan, Holland, trade-down, Sheppard, Topic, Castle
If the Grizzlies get the 3rd pick…
Sarr
Castle
The aforementioned trade-down possibilities could still be on the table, though the Wizards one with Advija may not be enticing for them to go up 2 spots at the expense of a key young player.
My preferences don’t change here.
Preferences: Clingan, Holland, trade-down, Castle, Sheppard, Topic.
If the Grizzlies get the 4th pick…
Top-3 from MavsDraft:
Zaccharie Risacher
Alex Sarr
Rob Dillingham
The Grizzlies should hold here. This is a sweet spot on the board to acquire their guy, regardless of the positional direction they go.
Preferences: Clingan, Holland, Sheppard, Topic, Castle
If the Grizzlies remain at the 7th pick
Right now, the Grizzlies have the 7th-best lottery odds. If the Grizzlies remain at 7 after the draft lottery, it signals there will be little movement in the order compared to the odds.
MavsDraft order:
Alex Sarr
Nikola Topic
Donovan Clingan
Ron Holland
Zaccharie Risacher
Matas Buzelis
From the list of aforementioned players on my “board,” the Grizzlies remain with Stephon Castle and Reed Sheppard.
I got a scenario that would be interesting based off this layout. Several of my Jazz SB Nation followers from the Utah/Memphis series a few years back really like Stephon Castle and see him as a no-brainer fit. Could there be a 1-spot pick swap to unlock?
My rationale: could the Grizzlies do something like Santi Aldama or Ziaire Williams and the 7th pick for Walker Kessler and the 8th pick? Then they draft Reed Sheppard with the 8th pick.
Utah’s situation with Kessler is a bit odd, as he strictly came off the bench after a tremendous rookie campaign. A year removed from playing on the Team USA squad, Utah plans on having him play in Summer League as a 3rd-year player. It could be nothing, but the Utah/Kessler situation is one I’m monitoring this summer.
Nonetheless, in 1 swoop, the Grizzlies could acquire their starting center and a playmaking flamethrower — both still on rookie contracts.
Preferences: Sheppard, Castle, trade-down
If the Grizzlies fall to the 9th pick
MavsDraft’s draft hypothetical here:
Alex Sarr
Donovan Clingan
Zaccharie Risacher
Matas Buzelis
Ron Holland
Nikola Topic
Cody Williams
Rob Dillingham
More of my thoughts are in the previous section, as both Sheppard and Castle are on the board.
Preferences: Sheppard, Castle, trade down
However, if the Grizzlies are 9th on draft night, and neither guy is on the board when Memphis is on the clock, then the projection gets murkier.
I’d prefer to try to trade down out of the lottery, or maybe explore something out for a veteran rotation player — preferably a starting big man. If they can’t do so and are stuck with the pick, then it gets more interesting.
Grizzlies fans will clamor for Dalton Knecht, who projects as a “ready-made” prospect due to his age and as an outside shooting weapon. Do they reach on a big like Yves Missi or Kyle Filipowski? Do they go for more of an upside swing — in this particular instance, it’d be Isaiah Collier or Tidjane Salaun? (I’d prefer not.) Jared McCain fits the similar mold of a Reed Sheppard with his outside shooting and his knack for making winning plays.
The 9th pick would be close to worst-case scenario — unless the unforeseeable happens, and the Grizzlies fall to 10th because 3 teams jump them. However, as this exercise shows, they could still land a coveted prospect, because of how much variance with this year’s class.
The Memphis Grizzlies are entering a big offseason — as they are eager to bounce back from their injury-riddled season, and to re-enter contention status. An abundance of directions are on the table, but how the ping pong balls fall on Sunday will determine their path of possibilities for this offseason.
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