Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Play-in Preview, Keys
The Memphis Grizzlies start their playoff quest on the road. Can the Grizzlies start fresh from a rocky close to the season to steal the 7th seed on the road against a familiar foe?
WHO: Memphis Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in the Western Conference) at Golden State Warriors (48-34, 7th in the Western Conference)
WHERE: Chase Center — San Francisco, CA
WHEN: 9:00PM CST
HOW TO WATCH: TNT/truTV/Max
HOW TO LISTEN: 92.9 (ESPN)
INACTIVE LIST: Warriors — N/A. Grizzlies — Brandon Clarke (OUT, RT Knee PCL Spain), Jaylen Wells (OUT, RT Wrist Fracture/Facial Laceration/Concussion Protocol). All two-way contract players are ineligible for postseason basketball.
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS: Warriors — Stephen Curry, Brandin Podziemski, Moses Moody, Jimmy Butler, Draymond Green. Grizzlies — Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Vince Williams Jr., Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
If you were told the Memphis Grizzlies slipped to the play-in after holding a top-3 seed for the majority of the season, it’d be disappointing. Yeah, it’s unideal for the Grizzlies to be in this situation after what they built through the first 55 games. However, when postseason hits, every team is now 0-0.
For the Grizzlies, their opponent for the 7th seed will be a familiar foe: the Golden State Warriors.
In this iteration of Memphis basketball, these two teams have created magic. Through the 2021 play-in, Ja Morant and the Grizzlies had their arrival game, knocking off the Warriors in a “win or go home” overtime thriller. Before Morant’s season-ending injury in the 2022 playoff series, they went on to have an entertaining 6-game series — which included a 47-point performance from the Grizzlies’ star.
There has always been spice as well. Broken codes, press conference spice, Draymond Green podcast rants.
Now, the two teams will meet again in play-in basketball for the chance to meet the Houston Rockets in a 2-7 series.
What are the keys that will define the outcome of this game? How can the Grizzlies secure the win in this game?
Grizzlies bigs and foul trouble
Foul trouble has been a recent pattern in the Grizzlies’ games recently, and it could skew the direction of the game.
Frequently at the top of the leaderboards of this category, Jaren Jackson Jr. finished the regular season with the most personal fouls. It’s been more prevalent since returning from his ankle sprain. In the last 15 games of the season, Jackson has averaged 3.9 fouls per game — accumulating at least 5 fouls in six of those outings, and fouling out once.
Tuomas Iisalo has been less conservative about Jackson’s foul trouble than Taylor Jenkins, as he’s more willing to play him through it. However, it’s year 7 for Jackson… it has to slow down. Some of it is justified, some are bad whistles, and some are fouls that are unnecessary.
He’s too important to this team to be in foul trouble.
Jackson is the backbone of the Grizzlies’ defense. For a defense that’s become a house of cards since the New Year, it’s vital for them to have Jackson on the floor, especially with Brandon Clarke and Jaylen Wells out of the fold. He can cover perimeter players and hang in switches, a key tactic that may be critical when defending the two-man actions between Draymond Green and Stephen Curry.
With Jackson in the game, the defense becomes more stable, but he gives them a mismatch component offensively, too. The Warriors don’t have much size. Their only player taller than 6’9” in the rotation is Quentin Post, a rookie big man not equipped to defend him in long stretches. While Green could definitely bother him with his physicality, Jackson’s size could ultimately overpower it, especially with the development of his push shot near the floater zone.
The Grizzlies will need 38-40 minutes from its stars to steal one on the road. The main thing potentially slowing it down is Jackson’s fouling.
Zach Edey in this matchup
Zach Edey is entering the classic zone for the traditional big man in the modern NBA. Will his lack of foot speed — the ability to mainly play drop coverage — exploit him and play him off the floor in postseason basketball?
The Warriors offer a good barometer in it, as Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are the ones that began this conundrum for bigs of Edey’s archetype.
The Grizzlies often have Edey assigned to Green in center field coverage, daring him to shoot — as he’s a 32% three-point shooter for his career. The one caveat of this strategy though is how it can enable the two-man game. If the guard defender can’t navigate the screen, it frees up a cleaner look for a shooter — Steph, more often than not — to let it fly. That is how a traditional center can be played off the floor.
On the other hand, Zach Edey has been very good against the Warriors.
Game 1: 14 points (5-8 shooting), 9 rebounds, 2 stocks, +14
Game 2: 8 points (3-5 shooting), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks, +24
Game 3: 10 points (4-7 shooting), 16 rebounds, 4 blocks, +13
There’s no answer to his size, aside from the idea of playing him in space. He crushes the offensive glass, something that’s important for neutralizing Kevon Looney. He’s an easy target for play-finishing opportunities. His screening will also free looks for Ja Morant and Desmond Bane off the pick-and-roll or handoffs.
There’s a pathway for Zach Edey to be incredibly impactful in this game. The Grizzlies also need him to, because they don’t have Brandon Clarke to roll with to enable more matchup versatility defensively.
Zach Kleiman said something quite fascinating about Edey in matchups, after he drafted him:
“You spend a lot of time asking… how do we match up with this team, how do we match up against that team. Zach is incredibly unique in that you got to deal with him. We now have — from a size and physicality standpoint — that’s something other teams have to grapple with. We want to have looks we can throw out there that give us the advantage. Let them figure out how to deal with us.”
Now, we’re about to see this idea put to the test against the team that aimed to exploit players of his archetype.
Ja Morant’s three-point shooting
Lost in the hoopla of Morant’s three-point celebrations, his outside shooting has become more potent, and he’s leveraging it. Since the beginning of March, he’s shooting 35.1% from 3 on 7.5 attempts per game — shorten the sample to April, and it’s 41.3% on 9.2 trey’s per game.
Yes, sample is small. While small sample theater may prevail, the “glass half full” approach would be pointing out to getting hot at a right time. It’s no coincidence either that he’s shooting better now that his shoulder is healthier.
Nonetheless, this trend is meaningful. The combination of volume and accuracy adds a dimension to his game. One that can force defenses to adjust.
Sure, the Warriors may still go under screens for the bit of the game. However, if he hits a couple of them early, it opens up the rest of his arsenal. If defenses have to respect the jumper, he can touch the paint. From there, he can either exploit the lack of rim protection to score in the paint — either all the way to the rim, or with his floater. He can find his big men or cutters in the dunker’s spot or baseline for easy finishes. Or if the defense sells out in the paint, he has shooters open from beyond the arc.
Morant can bend games with his driving ability once he touches the paint. If the outside shot is falling — and it has lately — he adds a layer we haven’t seen in a playoff setting.
Containing Steph Curry (and Jimmy Butler)
Yes, the Grizzlies have to avoid the role player explosion — mainly pointing to guys like Brandin Podziesmki, Moses Moody, or Buddy Hield. However, all eyes will be on how the Grizzlies slow down Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.
Earlier this season, Jaylen Wells held Curry to 0 field goals in their December outing — marking the first time the future Hall of Famer didn’t make a shot in any game he played 20 or more minutes. Well, the next meeting, Curry exploded for 52 points, making 12 of his 20 three-pointers. It was an all-time Curry Flurry. No team has a shot to stop the Warriors with a rolling Steph Curry.
Unfortunately for the Grizzlies, Wells isn’t here to slow down Curry. Who steps up to the plate? Vince Williams Jr. will draw the assignment. In theory, Williams may be a near-perfect fit to slow him down. He has a motor that seems to never run low. He can navigate screens pretty well. His size and length should be a deterrent for Curry. Not really seen this season, but Williams has a track record of getting under his opponent’s skin. Maybe that Vince Williams shows up in this game.
Scotty Pippen Jr. will get ample opportunities as well. He’s a feisty point-of-attack defender that hounds ball-handler’s with his physicality and quick hands. In addition, he’s provided more of a consistent offensive punch, averaging 10.3 points and 4.3 assists while shooting 47.9% from 3 (2.8 attempts per game) since the All-Star break. The Grizzlies have also been quite good in the Morant and Pippen minutes this season — boasting a +8.0 NET rating in 692 non garbage time possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Grizzlies also have to account for Jimmy Butler, his first “Playoff Jimmy” moment as a Warrior. In the only meeting against these teams, Memphis had a hard time slowing him down. He went for 27 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, and 3 steals. Most notably, he was 7-11 from the field and 12-12 from the free throw line. Since joining the Warriors, he’s averaging 7.7 free throws per game with eight games of 10 or more attempts. It’s a key development to monitor, especially with Jackson and Edey’s foul woes. Butler looks to touch the paints and leverage his craft to score or draw fouls.
Side note: Butler got a quad contusion after going knee-to-knee with Kawhi Leonard Sunday. Maybe watch that?
It may be one of those things where you can’t stop them but only hope to contain them. However, the Grizzlies have to make sure Curry and Butler don’t go nuclear, if they want to steal this game on the road.
We can expect some magic. Ja Morant has risen to the moment at a superstar level throughout his postseason career. Desmond Bane has had great playoff moments as well. The Grizzlies and Warriors also never fail to put on a show whenever the stakes are high.
The Memphis Grizzlies didn’t have a strong close to the season. They also struggled against Western Conference playoff teams in the regular season. However, they have a chance to avenge themselves and build momentum towards the playoff with a big win on the road.
This is a moment where we can see the Grizzlies not only prove doubters wrong, but prevail in the face of adversity. It can be a defining moment in a season that took an unexpected turn.
How will the Memphis Grizzlies respond?
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