Memphis Grizzlies Free Agency Primer, Predictions
Free agency is nearly underway. What can we expect from the Memphis Grizzlies?
Free agency is less than 24 hours away, and once the clock strikes 5PM CST, reporters like Adrian Wojnarowski, Shams Charania, Jake Fischer, and Marc Stein will release their drafts of all the deals they’ve known throughout the offseason. All eyes will be on the Memphis Grizzlies for several reasons. Here’s what we know:
What do the Grizzlies have to spend? The Grizzlies don’t have cap space, but they can sign a player to a $12.4M non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
How many roster spots do the Grizzlies have? They currently have 14 main roster players and 3 two-way players (Vince Williams Jr., Jacob Gillyard, and GG Jackson)
The rest? Let’s unpack.
The Grizzlies and their spending
Zach Kleiman has put out there multiple instances that the Grizzlies are willing to spend. I don’t think it reflects this offseason, given their avenue of resources, but it’ll show in the 2024-25 payroll — after Bane’s extension.
Hypothetically, if the Grizzlies extend Desmond Bane to the max, they will hit the “first apron” of the luxury tax — which, in the new CBA, means they’re roughly $7M above the luxury tax line and will have restrictions on signing buyout players and on traded player exceptions. Obviously, they can avoid that by not giving Bane the max, or structuring his contract in ascending manner.
However, they like their roster — and as of now, the following players will be making more than $10M annually starting in 2024-25:
Desmond Bane: presumably north of $30M
Ja Morant: $36.2M
Jaren Jackson Jr.: $25.3M
Marcus Smart: $20M
Luke Kennard: $14.6M (team option, seems like a lock though)
Steven Adams: $12.6M
Brandon Clarke: $12.5M
Obviously, that’s a year from now, but it could affect how they spend this offseason. It makes me think they’ll look to sign someone to a 1-year deal — or put some partial-guarantees on the contract if it becomes a multi-year one. If they acquire a player via trade, it could be for a player whose contract expires in 2024.
Desmond Bane’s extension
Desmond Bane is due for an extension, and signing it is the biggest guarantee of the entire offseason. He’s emerged as a premier talent from the shooting guard position — catapulting himself into the discussion of “best shooter in the world,” while also evolving his game to attack defenses off the dribble as both a scorer and playmaker.
The only question with Bane is, will he get the max? Bane could be in line for a 5-year, $207M max extension. Does he get it? He has an argument:
Last season, he joined Steph Curry and Kevin Durant as the only players that averaged 20 points, 4 rebounds, and 4 assists while shooting 40% from 3.
He’s made sizable leaps in multiple facets of his game for the past 2 seasons
He’s been a gamer in the playoffs — 20.3 points on 45.5/42.8/89.1 shooting splits.
Obviously, he’s not going anywhere if it’s not the max. Zach Kleiman and Taylor Jenkins have challenged Bane — along with Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant — to be leaders on this team.
Now, we wait to see if the price is right. Bane and his agent have to be looking at Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole after their 4-year extensions worth $140M, and be smiling. He’s better than those 2 players, showing he’s way more playoff-proof defensively — while also proving to be an elite secondary option.
So, we know it’ll be more than $140M, and now with the new CBA, a rookie-scale extension can hit 5 years without it being a max deal.
That could help Desmond Bane and the Memphis Grizzlies — and I see that being the resolution.
Prediction: Desmond Bane signs a 5-year, $185M contract extension at the moment rookie-scale extensions can be announced.
Oh, where will Dillon Brooks go?
Dillon Brooks won’t be back with the Memphis Grizzlies, and we’re approaching an answer of the destination of Villain’s next chapter.
One name standing out: the Houston Rockets.
They have a boatload of cap space, looking for veterans, and ready to win. Insert Dillon Brooks.
A signing with the Rockets shows that his market didn’t get totally cooked, after a disastrous stretch once the calendar flipped to 2023. Even in the midst of chaos, he put together a strong enough defensive campaign to make the All-Defense 2nd team. Young guys have praised Brooks for taking them under his wing over the past 3 seasons. Underneath all the antics is a guy that could be a good veteran presence for a young team looking to make a leap.
However, signing with the Rockets could zap a sign-and-trade possibility for the Grizzlies. The only avenue for a sign-and-trade with Houston would be to acquire a second-round pick to generate a traded player exception, which would require cooperation from the Rockets and Dillon’s agent.
It’s going to be fascinating to watch unfold. Substack’s Marc Stein reported it’d be a surprise if the Rockets did not sign Dillon Brooks to a deal when free agency starts, whereas Bleacher Report’s Chris Haynes reported that Houston “has the edge” for Kuzma.
Granted, leverage is out there abundantly — agents using other teams to get exactly what they want from their desired landing spot. Nonetheless, acquiring Kuzma and Brooks would be redundant for Houston, which could open up sign-and-trade destinations for the Grizzlies. There’s not enough intel out there to gauge the possible Dillon Brooks suitors that would need a sign-and-trade — teams I’d eye: Dallas, Atlanta, Milwaukee.
All in all though, the smoke has been too prominent for too long. Welcome to H-town, Dillon.
Prediction: Dillon Brooks signs with the Houston Rockets for 2 years worth $30M.
One more spot — what’s the direction?
The Memphis Grizzlies have 1 more roster spot left. How will they use it?
They have a full $12.4M mid-level exception to use, and a Dillon Brooks sign-and-trade could generate a sizable traded player exception — or bring back a player through a sign-and-trade.
I’d lean more towards the Grizzlies using the MLE to get their roster to 15, especially if Dillon Brooks goes somewhere with cap space. A big question revolves around how they should approach it, and I point back to Marcus Smart insurance.
If the Grizzlies lose Smart at any point during the season, they’re down an extra point guard — and would have zero on the roster if it’s during Ja Morant’s suspension. At the same time, they would lose a defensive stopper, unless they’re trusting David Roddy or Ziaire Williams with those responsibilities.
Can you get a defensive stopper and a combo guard that can handle the ball? Those aren’t on the market. However, they should target a veteran wing that could potentially be the opening night starter if one of Ziaire/Roddy/LaRavia aren’t ready, but could also be phased out of the rotation if that young trio proves to be ready.
Ideas?
To target the cap-strapped Phoenix Suns, Torrey Craig would be a good combo forward veteran — though his shooting is feast and famine, wavering from high-30’s to low-3’s in 3-point percentage by the season. Josh Okogie isn’t huge, but he’s a maniac on the offensive glass that plays bigger than his size.
Taurean Prince didn’t have his contract guaranteed to make him an unrestricted free agent. He’s a forward with size that can defend and shoot.
The Grizzlies have had long interest in Joe Ingles dating back from 2014, to the 2017 offseason, and even last year. His ACL injury and age may make him a negative asset defensively, but he’s a 6’8” wing that can put the ball on the floor to distribute or shoot the ball.
Josh Richardson would be a steady ball-handler that can share facilitation responsibilities with Smart, Bane, and Kennard through 25 games. He can shoot, and his 7’0” wingspan makes him an asset when generating defensive events.
It’s tough to gauge traded player exception targets. The Clippers have a plethora of sizable contracts that can potentially fit in a Dillon Brooks TPE from a sign-and-trade — Nic Batum, Robert Covington, Norman Powell, and Marcus Morris. James Harden’s recent “opt-in and trade” situation complicates those talks. Could the Grizzlies swipe Delon Wright for a 2nd or 2? Could he masquerade as a wing at times?
The market of players here is too broad, and none of these names are going to pop off the page — barring an unexpected move. However, the Grizzlies have the assets to work around the margins and add more veteran firepower going into next season.
Prediction: The Memphis Grizzlies sign Joe Ingles with a large portion of their MLE with a 1-year deal.
Free agency kicks off at 5PM CST Friday afternoon. I’ll be sure to have some sort of breakdown on which ever player they bring in throughout the offseason. Stick with me for more Memphis Grizzlies content through free agency, Summer League, and beyond.
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