Memphis Grizzlies vs. Dallas Mavericks Play-in Preview, Keys
It's win or go home. Can the Memphis Grizzlies overcome the Dallas Mavericks' formidable defense to return to the NBA playoffs?
WHO: Memphis Grizzlies (48-34, 8th in the Western Conference) vs. Dallas Mavericks (39-43, 10th in the Western Conference)
WHERE: FedExForum — Memphis, TN
WHEN: 8:30PM CST
HOW TO WATCH: ESPN
HOW TO LISTEN: 92.9 (ESPN)
INACTIVE LIST: Mavericks — Kyrie Irving (OUT, ACL tear), Olivier Maxence-Prosper (OUT, RT Wrist Surgery) Grizzlies — Brandon Clarke (OUT, RT Knee PCL Spain), Jaylen Wells (OUT, RT Wrist Fracture/Facial Laceration/Concussion Protocol). All two-way contract players are ineligible for postseason basketball.
PROJECTED STARTING LINEUPS: Mavericks — Naji Marshall, Klay Thompson, PJ Washington, Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II. Grizzlies — Ja Morant, Scotty Pippen Jr., Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey
Win or go home.
This is the Memphis Grizzlies’ fourth play-in game with these implications — the 2020 bubble, the 9/10 matchup against the Spurs, then the Warriors game in 2021, and now tonight.
Again, if you asked anyone in February if this was a possibility, you’d be shocked. However, it’s a consequence of a lackluster post-All-Star break.
Nonetheless, this is the moment. They have to seize it. The playoffs are within reach, even in an unideal scenario.
On the other side is a Dallas Mavericks team that has had an unprecedented season to a massive degree. They made the most shocking trade in modern NBA history by trading a 25-year-old MVP candidate, Luka Dončić. They were ravaged with injuries — including losing their All-Star point guard, Kyrie Irving.
With Anthony Davis in the fold, though, Nico Harrison is looking to build a defensive-minded contender.
How can the Memphis Grizzlies win the battle against the Mavericks and return to the playoffs?
Creation advantages
The Grizzlies will have a creation advantage against the Mavericks.
Morant is a game-time decision with his ankle sprain — although it’s difficult to envision him sitting out in a game of this magnitude. If he’s playing, he’s better than their primary creator by a mile.
Desmond Bane has also sizzled with his three-level scoring. His shooting will be important, as the Mavericks will look to wall off the paint with the combination of Davis and Lively.
The Mavericks took a massive creation hit after the Luka Dončić trade and Kyrie Irving injury. Since Irving went down, the Mavericks are 23rd in assists per game (25.3). According to Cleaning the Glass, apart from Luka and Kyrie, only Caleb Martin and Spencer Dinwiddie — who played in garbage time yesterday — had fewer than 50% of their shots assisted on. Worth noting, Naji Marshall has taken a leap as a creator, so watch for him when he’s slashing to the basket.
This development is important in relation to shell defense.
The Mavericks are massive, and they have stout defenders. The Grizzlies have to leverage the creation and gravity of Morant and Bane to get the defense in rotation, crack the shell, and find clean looks all over the floor.
On the other side, the Grizzlies need to keep their shell defense intact. The Mavericks don’t really have any defense-bending creators on the perimeter. If the Grizzlies’ defense isn’t locked in and in sync, they’re either getting easy looks at the basket for its three-headed big man trio, or from beyond the arc with Klay Thompson.
Morant and Bane need to direct the action in this game — establish the pace, look for early offense, exploit gaps in the defense, and add pressure on the defense. Make them play into their hands.
The Grizzlies need big nights from role players
It’s a postseason game at home. You know what that means? It’s where role players can shine. Against a defense like Dallas, one that’ll focus on the Grizzlies’ stars, they need some elevation from its role players.
Look at the Warriors game the other night — the home team got boosts from Quentin Post and Gary Payton II.
Three players I’m watching for: Santi Aldama, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Luke Kennard.
Aldama played well against the Warriors — finishing with 14 points and 8 rebounds on 5-8 shooting. With the Mavericks’ size, they need Aldama to chip in on the glass. In addition, he has to provide an offensive pop as a floor-spacer, play-finisher, and closeout-attacker. With the possibility of Edey or Jackson getting in foul trouble, Aldama has to be ready to rise to the occasion. A bit far out, but every rep Aldama has to prove himself as a bonafide playoff performance is important ahead of his restricted free agency.
Pippen’s play has been the brightest spot of the All-Star break. His pressure on both ends has always been there, but his shooting and overall scoring has taken a mid-season leap. He’s emerged as a playoff rotation player. He won’t have to chase around Stephen Curry this game, but his defensive activity could be a catalyst to generate cycles.
Kennard is the veteran with the most experience. He also has an elite skill that can swing games. His three-point shooting has taken an uncharacteristic slump since the All-Star break, and his willingness to let it fly has wavered a bit. However, the game against the Nuggets was a reminder of what he can do with his three-point shooting, and weaponizing his otherworldly skill into mid-range pull-ups. While Isalo may roll with John Konchar’s defense this game, Kennard’s offensive production could be important here.
Every piece of production matters. The Grizzlies need their role players to rise to the occasion as defenses sell out on their talented Big 3.
Size will matter
Again, the Mavericks are huge. Not only do they have Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively starting at the 4 and 5, but they have Daniel Gafford off the bench. On the wing, PJ Washington, Naji Marshall, and Max Christie are solid perimeter defenders capable of slowing down creators. Klay Thompson isn’t 2016 Klay Thompson defensively, but he’s not small.
The Grizzlies have to navigate it. Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr., in particular, have to win the battle in the trenches. They have to prevent them from securing the possessions advantage on the glass. They have to go up strong amidst their rim protection. Anthony Davis cannot go off for a “top-5 player in the world” performance he’s capable of on both sides of the floor.
Edey’s deterrence will be pivotal. We haven’t seen him against Lively — although a good measuring stick, as the latter was last year’s promising rookie big on a playoff team. He has to be ready to help Jackson contain Davis. A potential positive, the Grizzlies won all the Edey minutes in the AD-Lakers games this season, outscoring them by 28 points.
The Mavericks are huge, but the Grizzlies have good size too with Edey and Jackson. Win the battle in the trenches, and the game could be theirs.
This is Jaren Jackson Jr.’s moment
Jaren Jackson Jr. didn’t have the best game against the Warriors. He was 2-6 on 2’s and turned the ball over 3 times. He had too many defensive lapses for a former Defensive Player of the Year. He hasn’t been lighting the world on fire since returning from his ankle sprain — averaging 20 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.3 stocks on 45% shooting from the field. (Just stash away for now, but he’s also shooting 41.2% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game in this span. Could be important).
This game right here could be a defining moment for Jackson. The team has its backs against the wall … season on the line … at home … and his likely two-way matchup is a future Hall of Famer.
Jackson is on track to be the most accomplished Grizzly in franchise history — already with two All-Star appearances, two First-Team All-Defensive bids, and a Defensive Player of the Year award. The All-NBA selection is lurking with ballots coming in this week and following.
With the team facing adversity, it could be a moment where Jackson takes charge and decides the Memphis Grizzlies will win this game.
Can the Memphis Grizzlies prevail to avoid a playoff miss?
(Note: I’m not going to talk about the pick. No one should root for the Grizzlies to lose, so they can keep their pick. They’re looking to build a winning culture. Even though a historically-good Oklahoma City Thunder team awaits the results of this game, these reps are valuable for every player on the roster. You can’t squander that, especially when this team has a high bar for themselves.)
It’s going to be a war — a physical exhibition with the season hanging in the balance. No possession can be wasted. After over a month of adversity, the Memphis Grizzlies have a chance to respond to the biggest test — with the biggest consequences — of the season.
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