What happened in Grizzlies' 4th-quarter collapse in Tuesday's NBA Cup loss?
A film dive on the Memphis Grizzlies' rough clutch moments. Are the problems magnified in this game fixable ones that could help them grow in late-game situations?
The Memphis Grizzlies’ six-game winning streak in demoralizing fashion. They entered the 4th quarter with a 12-point lead, and led by as much as 15 throughout the game. Then, they surrendered 39 points in the 4th quarter to lose their final NBA Cup game by the score of 121-116.
So what happened down the stretch of the game?
Well, you can’t get there without talking about how the Grizzlies built up their large second-half lead. In the 3rd quarter, they forced the Mavericks into 10 turnovers, and their defense fueled their offense. They found their groove from the outside, hitting 5 of their 9 three-pointers. They also sought paint touches, whether it was in the halfcourt or in transition. Because they established the pace, they were able to control the game.
Then, the fourth quarter began, and the Grizzlies’ lead started to wither away. Over time, the Mavericks chipped away at the deficit, and their momentum hit a crescendo with huge late-game 3’s from Spencer Dinwiddie and PJ Washington.
Again, how did the Grizzlies get to the point of slipping away the game?
Let’s look at the film and the numbers.
By the film
After a Santi Aldama basket at the 8-and-a-half minute mark, the Grizzlies were stuck at 106, before Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. returned at the 5:23 mark.
Prior to Morant and Jackson checked in, the Grizzlies gave up an +1 that shrunk the lead to 6. The maestro playmaking of Luka Doncic triggered it. In this screen action, Bane seems to be taking the switch, but Wells navigates the screen to recover. Executing the switch could’ve prevented Doncic from getting downhill. Aldama rotates from opposite low-side to protect the rim, leading to a kick-out to Washington. Huff got beat on the closeout, and Aldama had bad technique on the block — resulting in the hoop and harm.
3-point swing.
Morant gets two free throws the next possession, extending the lead back up to 8.
This foul on Desmond Bane was pretty simple. Dinwiddie drove on him, and Bane had played good defense. However, Dinwiddie leveraged the off-arm to generate separation, so when he went up for the runner, Bane slapped him on the arm for the foul.
Lead down to 6.
The start of the Marcus Smart’s crunch-time struggles. It’s too early in the clock to be driving baseline without a clear advantage to strike on.
But Ja Morant to the rescue!
PJ Washington thought he had the mismatch, but Morant got the best of him by knocking the ball out on the backdown. However, Wells overshot the outlet pass for the out-of-bounds turnover.
The Grizzlies had prevented a turnover costing them by creating defensive havoc of their own, but were unable to capitalize on it. Those are the sort of opportunities that can’t be squandered in a close game, especially when it can lead to transition offense.
Later in the quarter, the Grizzlies won the jump-ball. However, when Morant was probing the pick-and-roll sequence, he got hit with a carry violation.
It wasn’t too costly, but it did lead to a foul on the other end. When navigating the guard-to-guard screen, Smart came around it a bit too physical, which led to a foul.
Lead down to 5.
These next two plays are stars being stars — what every fan likes to see in big games.
Morant sees Dinwiddie creep to tag on the pick-and-roll, so he throws a dart to Bane in the corner. Upon the closeout, he swings it up to Smart. Smart couldn’t find a lane downhill, so he made one more pass to Morant — who hit a big contested 3.
Lead back up to 8.
A theme of this game was Luka Doncic getting his shots off amidst the defensive pressure. Smart initially showed great denial pressure. Upon the catch, he shut off a potential driving lane, but Doncic hit a step-back. Great defense, better offense, stars do that to you, especially in big moments.
Lead to 5 again.
The play design wasn’t optimal here. I understand the layout. Have Aldama and Smart up by Morant with more favorable mismatch hunting with Doncic and Irving guarding them, which also makes Dinwiddie a low-man as well. Washington navigates the screen well, so Irving didn’t have to switch. He then forced Morant to a floater further from the basket. Could they have tried to have some secondary motion to open up another scoring outlet with Bane or Jackson?
Then, this play from Smart baffled everyone. Credit to Aldama here — he picked up Doncic and forced him into an early-clock, step-back 3 in transition. That’s a suboptimal shot. But everything after that… what? So, Smart tries to save it. Maybe, he thinks Aldama got fingers on the shot — which led to the airball. Even then, by the time he gets to the ball, it’s deep out of bounds. Just a perplexing decision all around.
Next play, Smart played great defense on Kyrie’s corner 3. However, we’re back to another out of bounds situation. Taylor Jenkins challenges the call — thinking it was off Lively, not Jackson. However, in the review, Jackson was hit with a proximate foul.
Lively goes to the line and trims the Grizzlies’ lead to 3.
The next play is exactly what you want — Morant turns the corner on the ghost screen to draw the low-side help. He finds Jackson at the last split-second for the kick-out for an open corner 3. You want those looks, it just didn’t fall. Then, off the rebound, Smart inexplicably fouled Doncic reaching for the ball.
Doncic to the line to trim the deficit to 1.
Again, not sure I hate the look. Maybe the Grizzlies shouldn’t have insisted on the ball screen, as Bane had a favorable matchup with Dinwiddie. On the screen reject, it appears Bane could’ve had space for a 3, as Lively was back-pedaling. He could’ve trimmed his dribbles and had more space with a deeper pull-up. However, it’s tough to nitpick since the shot rimmed out.
A gut-punch. Off the rebound on the Bane miss, the Mavericks got into transition offense and found Dinwiddie for 3.
Mavs now up 2.
This is a brutal no-call that ultimately swung the momentum pendulum. Jackson drove baseline and experienced a lot of physicality from Lively — no foul on the layup. Expressed in the postgame comments from Jenkins, there wasn’t a problem with how the officiating with ticky-tack fouls, but it wasn’t reciprocated on the other end.
Next possession, Jackson plays good isolation defense on Irving. Aldama rotates to help, and Morant “helps the helper” on Lively — leading to a corner kick. Once Washington retrieves the pass, it completely scrambles the rotation, and Aldama wasn’t quick enough on the closeout on the swing. Another Dinwiddie 3.
A no-call resulted in another big swing, as the Mavs now led 5.
The Grizzlies seek early offense off the make. Smart finds an open Jackson from 3, but he missed. However, Bane is there to clean it up and cut the deficit to 3.
Next play down, Desmond Bane plays awesome defense on Kyrie Irving to force the step-back miss. However, Lively tips out the rebound, despite battling with both Jackson and Aldama on the glass, opening up a second possession. As Luka probed the defense, he hits Smart with an elbow, forcing Jackson to step-up. Smart is dazed from the elbow, and now Washington is open for the 3.
Dagger.
After some clock-stopping free throws, and a Morant 3, the Grizzlies lost 121-116.
Evident through the film, it’s hard to solely blame the whistle — even though the Mavericks had nonstop tickets to the line, and the Grizzlies were crushed by brutal no-calls. The Grizzlies had simple miscues that helped the Mavericks shift the tide of the game.
By the numbers
+23: The Mavericks had a +23 advantage in free throws in the 4th quarter, shooting 26 free throws in the quarter. According to ESPN’s Tim McMahon, it’s the largest difference in 4th quarter free throws since 2015 — when the other team was intentionally fouling a bad free throw shooter. That’s an easy path to trigger a comeback.
2: The Grizzlies only made 2 baskets in the last 5-and-a-half minutes of the game.
12: Minutes Luka Doncic played in the 4th quarter.
10: Minutes Ja Morant played in the 4th quarter.
9: Minutes Jaren Jackson Jr. played in the 4th quarter.
Prognosis
While people will play the blame game on certain aspects of the collapse, it’s ultimately a cultivation of things.
People will blame the minutes, and sure it could be a factor. Jackson, Morant, and Bane all didn’t eclipse the 32-minute threshold, while Lively, Irving, and Doncic all played 35 or more minutes. I’m not sure that’s the ultimate reason they lost, but it could’ve been an ingredient in the messy recipe. Taylor Jenkins is on record for liking these 4-5 minute bursts players can play this pace at with a deeper rotation. Maybe, he could’ve stopped the bleeding when they had gone over 3 minutes without a point — the lead went from 12 to 6 from that moment until Morant and Jackson entered the game at the 5:24 lead. It’s a symptom, but not the core of the issues here.
The Grizzlies’ free throw differential in the 4th quarter opened up an easy pathway for the Mavericks to come back. Looking from the 5:24 point, the calls were fair. Marcus Smart had two plays with questionable physicality — including the inexcusable call off a Doncic rebound on the other side the floor, leading to two free throws. If any of the calls were agonizing, it was the proximate foul called on Jackson after the challenge on the loose ball. In addition, the whistle didn’t quite swing the other way, evident through Jackson’s drive on Lively that led to a Dinwiddie 3.
Because the Mavericks were constantly in the line, it forced the game into the mud. The Grizzlies’ offense were halted, and they couldn’t create the looks or advantages necessary to score effectively down the stretch. The Grizzlies are currently 18th in half-court offense (96.5 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass). It’s been an outstanding weakness to address the past several years for the Grizzlies, and building the half-court offense up through their system overhaul will be heavily monitored especially in close games.
Is it fixable? Absolutely.
Starting with the rotations, maybe the extra two minutes from Jackson or Morant could’ve prevented the mid-quarter rut leading into crunch-time to ultimately prevent the Grizzlies from being in that situation. If the patterns are related to burst, and the game slows down in those moments anyways, could the coaching staff become a bit more liberal with the minutes down the stretch? In addition, Jenkins should’ve pulled Smart down the stretch, who made some rough miscues in crunch-time. There will be nights where Smart will win them games with his defense, energy, and playmaking. Tuesday’s game was not one of them.
Would it have mattered with the way the Mavericks were drawing fouls? Who knows.
The Grizzlies also should have defended without fouling. No one knows if it would’ve led to makes or misses as a result, but it’s likely resulting in a less efficient shot than a free throw. If they defended without fouling, it could’ve open up transition scoring opportunities, which could’ve been an avenue out of the offensive drought.
When the game slows down, they have to evolve. It’s December, there’s time. However, can the Grizzlies find a way to instill its principles down the stretch? There was too much mismatch hunting and not enough advantage creation. They have to find a way to install some packages that merge their principles and their schemes to manufacture offense besides pick-and-roll.
Tuesday’s loss is not an indictment on the Grizzlies’ roster, system, or coaching staff. This is still a playoff-quality team that has the contention ingredients. However, the Grizzlies haven’t had much crunch-time experience this season, and Tuesday’s collapse was a reminder of its woes thus far. And for all its warts, the NBA Cup has created big-game feel early in the regular season.
While Tuesday’s NBA cup is a reminder of where they need to grow in clutch situations, it provides a learning opportunity that could help the Grizzlies adapt in high-leverage situations.
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