Memphis Grizzlies 2024 Free Agency Preview

How do the Grizzlies go about free agency? Do they keep Luke Kennard?

The draft has passed for the Memphis Grizzlies, as they’ve addressed their need for a center with the biggest man in the draft with Zach Edey. They also bolstered their shooting deep into the roster with Jaylen Wells and Cam Spencer.

Now it’s time for free agency.

After opting out of Luke Kennard’s team option, the Grizzlies have 14 players on the main roster — with the assumption that Jaylen Wells will take a spot with a “second-round” player exception.

To lead us into free agency points, what do we need to know?

• Per ESPN’s Bobby Marks, the Grizzlies are now $8M below the luxury tax and $11.5M below the 1st apron line after declining Luke Kennard’s team option.

• The Grizzlies’ latest move opens up their mid-level exception from $5.2M (taxpayer MLE) to $12.8M.

• The Grizzlies have 2 of its own free agents: Luke Kennard and Lamar Stevens. I wouldn’t be too optimistic about Stevens being back, as Cam Spencer has taken over his jersey number. (Note: can we briefly talk about how #24 has gone from one shit-talker to another with Dillon Brooks and Cam Spencer? What a thrill!).

In addition, this is how the depth chart stands:

• Likely starting: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Marcus Smart

• Second unit: Vince Williams Jr., Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, GG Jackson

• Reserves: Jake LaRavia, John Konchar, Ziaire Williams, Derrick Rose, (presumably) Jaylen Wells

• Two-way: Scotty Pippen Jr., Trey Jemison, Cam Spencer

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Luke Kennard’s team option

The Memphis Grizzlies made the decision to opt out of Luke Kennard’s team option, but in ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski’s reporting, he specifically said “both sides are eager to pursue a restructured deal.”

In this scenario, it seems like there will be some sort of compromise where the Grizzlies get him at a lower number, but Kennard gets more years on the contract — rather than just having a $14.8M expiring contract next season.

Yes, even with the reported mutual interest in a return, the deal is absent — as of this writing. So it seems risky to let him hit the open market and explore offers from other teams. Nonetheless, if agreed upon, bringing back Kennard on a restructured deal would be a home run for the Grizzlies.

The Grizzlies have two weaknesses they’ve been trying to address the past several years: shooting and halfcourt offense. They go hand-in-hand — the better the shooting is, the better the halfcourt offense should be. And Kennard has been one of the league’s most accurate 3-point shooters of the past half-decade — making a NBA-best 45.1% of his 3’s since the 2019-20 season. While the notion on Kennard has been his reluctance to shoot, his volume has gone up to career-best levels since arriving in Memphis, shooting 8.5 three’s per 36 minutes.

Kennard’s skeptics will point to his playoff viability, especially defensively next to Ja Morant. In the 2022 playoffs, he fared more than fine — in fact, they were a buzzsaw with him on the floor. The defense held up, as the team’s defensive rating was at 107.4 with Kennard on the floor, and the offense scored a blistering 124.1 points per 100 possessions — per Cleaning the Glass. Yes, Kennard isn’t the best defender, and the fear of him getting hunted in mismatches in a valid one, but he’s a smart defender in a team construct. At some point, especially for a team looking to bolster its offense, you have to weigh the offensive firepower against the defensive fortitude every now and then.

Now that I’ve looked at the on-court product, the main point over the coming days or weeks is the contract number. What can the Grizzlies and Kennard agree to?

I can see the Grizzlies and Kennard agreeing to a deal with an annual average salary hovering $11-13M. The years will be a question. A two-year deal for $22-25M seems like a solid deal. Maybe if there’s a 3rd year, it possesses some sort of option or partial guarantee — one that could offer him the chance to hit free agency at age 30 in 2026.

If they can’t agree to a number, where do they go from there? The list isn’t all that inspiring. Gordon Hayward might be the best realistic option, but the whole deal with his role in Oklahoma City gives me some concerns — along with the injury history. Could they poach Gary Harris from Orlando, with their sights set on Paul George or Klay Thompson? Lonnie Walker would be an intriguing flyer.

Since they’re under the tax, maybe they utilize some trade exceptions — $7.4M one that expires July 8th from the Dillon Brooks sign-and-trade, or the $12.6M trade exception from the Adams trade — to add 1 more rotation player. Maybe if the team is a second-apron team, the Grizzlies could essentially be a “salary dump” to acquire an asset with the player.

All in all though, I’d prefer Luke Kennard over any of those options.

Hopefully, the eagerness is real, and the Grizzlies agree to a restructured deal with Luke Kennard. His shooting and value will become more amplified on a healthy, optimal Grizzlies roster.

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What else is there left to do?

It’s tough to suggest free agents for the Grizzlies, since Zach Kleiman has only signed two players in the offseason free agency period — Tyus Jones and Derrick Rose. However, there could be opportunities to maneuver the current roster.

Especially if they bring back Kennard, they have a solid 10-man group — Morant, Bane, Jaren, Smart, Edey, GG, Vince, Kennard, Aldama, and Clarke. The back-end of the rotation is crowded with wings without pathways to play. They should look to declutter the wing rotation and add a bit more balance to the roster.

Specifically, they need a 5th big man. It’s a delicate balance finding one too, because you have to gauge whether they’re comfortable without an everyday rotation role — none of them are supplanting Edey or Clarke in the rotation. At the same time, the center has to be playable if their number is called.

Friend of the platform, Shawn Coleman, pitched the idea of Ziaire Williams and a 2nd-round pick or two to Charlotte for Nick Richards. The Hornets big man would make for a solid emergency case big man in the event of injuries. He’s an efficient play-finisher (66.1% from the field for his career) that can block shots and rebound. He also has two years and $10M ($5M in 2024-25 and 2025-26 seasons) left on his contract, which could be a team-friendly trade asset if needed.

If they want to go into free agency for a big man, the list isn’t all that inspiring. Andre Drummond, Goga Bitadze, and Jalen Smith likely command too much of a role. The Grizzlies already have a rookie big man, so a raw center like James Wiseman doesn’t make sense either (sorry, Tigers fans). Dario Saric isn’t an everyday rotation player but could provide solid shooting, passing, and rebounding — if called upon. Mason Plumlee could be a good veteran center that provides physicality and can do some stuff in the “delay” spot as a handoff guy, screener, and passer.

It’s not the biggest need, but maybe acquiring a more reliable ball-handler in that part of the rotation could be nice. Frankly, if the Grizzlies miss as many playmakers as they did this past season, no acquisition will alleviate that.

The Grizzlies have a good roster but could use some tweaking around the margins to balance it out.

Quick predictions

Okay, let’s make some quick predictions on how the Grizzlies could go about the rest of the offseason with free agency starting.

• The Grizzlies and Luke Kennard agree to a 2-year deal with an AAV around $11.5M.

• The Grizzlies acquire a center at the back-end of the roster as the de facto 11th man.

• The Grizzlies only make 1 trade this summer, and it’s just a marginal trade to balance out the roster.

I’ll have more on whatever moves transpire with the Grizzlies over the coming days and weeks.

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