Keep an eye on the 2024 Warriors pick

The Grizzlies aren't the only ones with a crucial offseason. Their rival's choices this summer could determine the fate of a valuable asset.

The Golden State Warriors are out of the postseason. I’m sure people — Grizz faithful, included — had a ball clowning Game 6 Klay for putting up tour dates in an elimination game, and Jordan Poole for a disaster-class of a postseason.

They’re due for a crucial, expensive summer, particularly due to an expensive payroll with more strict tax punishments on the horizon. The new CBA deal between the NBA and the NBPA (Player’s Association) has implemented harsher tax rules to try to keep a competitive advantage — irregardless of the abnormal amount of parity we’ve seen this season. You’ll hear the term “second apron” thrown a lot in NBA coverage, some may call it the “super tax” — that’s way more cool anyways. The second apron of the luxury tax is in effect when a team is at least $17.5M over the luxury tax line. The penalties?

• No mid-level exception, a common vehicle for teams to add rotation players

• Can’t use the elusive “cash considerations” in trades

• Can’t receive more salary than sending out in trades

• Can’t aggregate salary in trades

• Can’t trade its own first-round picks 7 years out or further

• Can’t sign players on the buyout market

Where do the Warriors fall for next season? They’re nearly $50M (49.6) over the luxury tax line, per Spotrac. Even if Draymond Green opts out of his contract, they’ll still be well above the $17.5M line.

So how does this pertain to the Memphis Grizzlies?

The time is approaching quickly for a fascinating asset to be cashed in. When the Warriors salary-dumped Andre Iguodala in a controversial trade to Memphis in 2019, Golden State added a top-4 protected 2024 first-round pick as an incentive for the Grizzlies to take on his contract.

A year away from the pick possibly being conveyed, this summer could dictate the trajectory of this asset… and if it’s even in Memphis’ hands at the end of the summer.

There are several elements to account for if the Grizzlies keep the draft pick. For starters, there could be a chance the pick could help them add another young player on a valuable contract, as the Grizzlies look to compete for championships around the Big 3 of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. Granted, we don’t know where it could fall; so much can change over the next year. However, the Warriors’ core is aging, and they were just a game out from the play-in, while slotting in the 19th pick in this year’s draft. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities this pick is closer to a lottery selection rather than the end of the first-round.

Obviously, way too early to say who could be in the range, but a looming factor in this will be Bronny James. LeBron James has put out there the goal is to play in the NBA with his son — no one really can track if that means he’ll join whatever team selects his son. There will be rampant speculation on whether or not a team reaches for Bronny in hopes of acquiring a late-career LeBron James. He may never reach the heights of his father, but Bronny is a legit prospect. At 6’3”, he’s a connective piece that can shoot, facilitate, and find his teammates, while also boasting potential as a defender — earning comparisons to former Grizzly De’Anthony Melton, Jrue Holiday, and Marcus Smart. Like plenty other teams, I’m sure we’ll talk about the possibility of drafting Bronny James, with LeBron arriving shortly after. For the Grizzlies, it’s because of the Warriors pick.

With these components around this asset existing, it also serves as a good time to maybe sell high on it — if the right deal approaches, obviously.

While the trajectory for an older team doesn’t look great, they have young players that could either go through internal improvement or be trade assets. Despite the postseason narratives around Jordan Poole, and to a lesser extent Johnathan Kuminga (whose future will be fascinating to monitor this summer), their value is the league should still be high enough to help them nab a legitimate contributor to bolster the title chances around their esteemed core.

So with that, it wouldn’t be totally shocking to see them trade the Golden State Warriors pick this offseason. It’s no secret the Grizzlies are looking to put draft capital on the table to acquire a bonafide upgrade at the 3. There’s no inclination the Warriors 2024 pick was on the table for any of the deals. However, it may be a necessity to acquire an impactful wing. If people around the league have similar thoughts about the Warriors’ trajectory, then this pick is of value.

Obviously there’s a tier of players you’d want to trade the pick for. Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are ones to come to mind, and the Grizzlies should include the 2024 Warriors pick in any of those packages.

It could also help them compete with whatever’s being offered around the league. The Portland Trail Blazers are looking at trading their 3rd overall pick to acquire a player to help Dame Lillard win a championship there. They also have Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe, but an owed pick to Chicago makes it hard to include more picks because of their protections through 2028. The Mavericks have the 10th pick to offer in efforts to give Luka Doncic a more competitive team, but the protections on a pick owed to the Knicks makes it tricky to offer picks further down the road.

Granted, competing with packages with top-10 picks will be hard, and Portland may go after different — or better — types of players than Memphis. However, the Warriors pick could be pivotal to field a more competitive offer. Players excluded for the time being, they could add the 25th pick, the Warriors 2024 pick, and their own 2025 first-round pick for a great start to a trade package.

Some people may point to the reasons previously outlined of why not to trade it. Yes, the unknown is captivating. However, that’s how Boston got burned with the 14th pick in back-to-back drafts from Sacramento (2019) and Memphis (2020) — those players were eventually attached to picks for upgrades.

And it may be totally possible the Grizzlies don’t even need the Warriors pick to acquire their 3 — whether it’s Dorian Finney-Smith, a sign-and-trade for Kyle Kuzma, or Deandre Hunter. Then, the pick becomes an asset going into the next NBA calendar year, whether it’s at the calendar or the draft. And maybe it’s elusive next season, and they can use it to bolster its roster with immediate or long-term help.

Regardless, given the crucial offseasons for both the Grizzlies and the Warriors, this longtime asset is one to watch for. The transactional landscape of the league under these new CBA rules and regulations could dictate where this pick could fall — or even where it could end up this offseason.

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