What could a Grizzlies trade with the 9th pick look like?
What could a Grizzlies trade with the 9th pick look like?
Since Zach Kleiman took over, the Grizzlies have frequently traded to move around the draft boards. What could it look like with the 9th pick? Let's use historical context with the intel out there.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most active teams on draft night over Zach Kleiman’s tenure. They have only stayed at their original pre-draft slot just 3 times since 2019 — Ja Morant (2, 2019), Vince Williams (47, 2022), and GG Jackson (45, 2023). Their trades with picks go as followed:
Trade up: Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman, Ziaire Williams, Santi Aldama, and Jake LaRavia
Trade into the draft: Desmond Bane, David Roddy, and Kennedy Chandler
Trade out of the draft: 25th pick (2023) to acquire Marcus Smart
Given the track record, it’s fair to suggest the Grizzlies will remain active on draft night.
Reports have already surfaced on this front for the Grizzlies, with The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor and ESPN’s Jonathan Givony reporting that they’re looking to trade up as high as 3 with their sights set on Donovan Clingan — among others to be discussed. ESPN’s Zach Lowe reported that the Grizzlies are looking at deals with 9 for win-now help. We don’t know what the exact direction is, but all options are on the table with the pick — as Zach Kleiman said in exit interviews.
The question, is what will it look like?
The best way to solve this answer is to look back at recent history. Since 2013, there have been 12 traded involving top-10 picks. One of those deals happened months after the draft in a deal for a star player. Within this time span, 3 drafts did not have movement in the top-10 — 2022, 2020, and 2015.
Trade-Up higher into the top 10
2023: Washington traded 8 and 2 second-round picks to Indiana for 7 (Bilal Coulibaily)
2019: New Orleans traded 4, Solomon Hill, Jordan Bone, and a future 2nd-round pick to Atlanta for 8, 16, and 3 second-round picks
2018: Dallas traded 5 and a future 1st to Atlanta for 3
2017: Philadelphia traded 3 and a future 1st to Boston for 1
The Grizzlies could very well trade up, but what would it look like?
Using historical context, teams used future 1sts to move up — although in the case of 2017 and 2018, they were significantly stronger drafts. The team that moved up the furthest, Atlanta in 2019, had an extra 1st round pick as ammo — as well as the cap space to absorb a salary dump.
Teams to watch for are Houston (3), Detroit (5) and Charlotte (6).
What it’d take with Houston for 3?
I saw a suggested trade that went as follows:
Houston receives: Luke Kennard, 9, and a lottery-protected 2025 1st-round pick
Memphis receives: Jock Landale, Ja’Sean Tate, and the 3rd pick
I’m not very keen on trading Kennard, but this trade made me pause. On one hand, giving a division rival a good rotation player and another asset to work with makes me uneasy. However, Landale’s non-guaranteed $8M would get the Grizzlies under the tax, if waived, which would open up the $12.9M non-taxpayer mid-level exception to work with. Tate has a $7M team option this season as well, but could be waived and stretched — or he’s a Lamar Stevens replacement at the end of the bench.
This trade would allow the Grizzlies to acquire 1 of Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Donovan Clingan, Reed Sheppard, Stephon Castle, or Matas Buzelis — all prospects not likely to be on the board at 9. In addition, it gives the Grizzlies more financial flexibility to work with the roster.
Recently, The Athletic’s Kelly Iko reported that the Grizzlies have been “aggressive” about trading up to 3 with high grades on Clingan and Sheppard — while Ime Udoka and the Rockets are big fans of Marcus Smart (no surprise). The Marcus Smart piece seems to be too rich to move up to 3, as he’s an integral part of winning a championship next season. However, could the Grizzlies take whatever players they get from Houston (Landale and Tate) with the 39th pick and flip that package for a playoff rotation player?
All in all, I don’t see this happening, as it’s more likely the Rockets just take Reed Sheppard.
If Memphis wanted to hop Detroit or Charlotte, what it’d take with San Antonio for 4? From Noah Magaro-George, Vic and Roll
San Antonio is still rebuilding, but Victor Wembanyama has made it clear he wants to see the organization take steps toward winning sooner rather than later. If the Grizzlies want to convince Gregg Popovich and the front office brain trust to part ways with the fourth overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, it will likely take a veteran who can immediately contribute as a starter in their rotation. The Spurs are in the market for a starting point guard, and Marcus Smart is the only name who fits that bill. It feels like Memphis would say no to trading the former Defensive Player of the Year for a chance to snag Donovan Clingan off the board early. Would adding Zach Collins to the package sweeten the deal for both sides? He is entering the first season of his two-year extension fresh off his worst campaign with the Silver and Black. However, he helps match salaries and provides extra frontcourt depth for a team that should be back in the postseason picture in 2025.
Yeah, I see the Spurs taking Castle, Sheppard, or Buzelis.
What it’d take with Charlotte for 6? From James Plowright, All Hornets
I don’t foresee a trade with Houston or San Antonio. It’d likely take Marcus Smart or Luke Kennard, or future draft capital.
It’s tough to see the Grizzlies give up that haul to move up in the draft, especially since those guys can either help them in their championship aspirations — or get a veteran to do so. Sending out first-round picks will hinder their ability to make subsequent moves to bolster the roster with the Stepien Rule. The Grizzlies could give up a protected 2025 pick that conveys to 2 seconds to move up anywhere between 3 and 6, which would allow the Grizzlies to trade picks from 2027 onward.
One asset that’d be incredibly fascinating is the Grizzlies’ 2026 pick swap. It’s already between them, Washington, Phoenix, and Orlando. Can they make it 5? (Yes, we need the chaos).
Working with Detroit to get the 5th pick could work, even at the expense of the 9th pick and a future 1st. The ultimate trade-up spot to watch is Charlotte. The draft is flat enough where it could potentially take the 39th pick with 9th to move up to the 6th pick. If it takes more, the Hornets have cap space to absorb contracts. Previously outlined in the video, they could target Santi Aldama or Ziaire Williams — two young players on expiring contracts that are easy to retain in restricted free agency, if they fit the new-look Hornets.
Another trade-up possibility that isn’t likely but will mention for cap creativity. The Grizzlies could do something like John Konchar, Ziaire Williams, 9, 39, and a future 2nd for Seth Curry, Bryce McGowens, and 6. Both Curry and McGowens have non-guaranteed contracts for 2024-25. If the Grizzlies waive them, they’d go under the tax to open up a non-taxpayer mid-level exception (roughly $12.9M) — before making a decision on Luke Kennard’s team option. That would give the Grizzlies much more flexibility to bolster its roster for a championship run, while still moving up the board to get their guy.
Overall, moving up to 3 might be too high that would cost a rich asset. If it’s a future 1st rather than a veteran, I’m actually more than okay dealing a 2025 protected 1st-round pick to move up in this draft. This is a unique opportunity where the Grizzlies won’t (shouldn’t) be this high on the draft boards for a long time. If things crack how envisioned, the pick given up next year should be between 25-30. And they could still trade any pick between 2027 and 2031. If there’s a guy they covet, and the price is right, they won’t wait until 9 to get him.
If the Grizzlies climb to maybe 6 or 7, I could see something similar to last year’s pick swap with Washington and Indiana to move up the board to chase their guy.
Trade Out for a Veteran
2017: Timberwolves traded 7, Zach LaVine, and Kris Dunn for Jimmy Butler and 16
2014 (months later): Cleveland Cavaliers traded 1, Anthony Bennett, and a future 1st in a 3-team trade for Kevin Love
The Grizzlies could move out of the draft to acquire a veteran, something they did last year to acquire Marcus Smart.
When gauging the historical context, it’s an entirely different situation than the Grizzlies' this year at 9. In 2014, the Cavaliers acquired an All-NBA big man to pair with LeBron James, at the expense of the #1 pick in a hyped draft — Andrew Wiggins, who was dubbed as “Maple Jordan” coming into the league. The Timberwolves traded the 7th pick in a strong draft with two former lottery picks for Jimmy Butler.
My main question with trading out is, what could you exactly get with a mid-lottery pick in a draft evaluators are anonymously dubbing as one of the weakest drafts this century?
And with the names, I don’t even know where to start.
Mikal Bridges is the usual target, but it’s tough to foresee the Nets moving him without assurance they can retain their own draft capital — hence the Houston rumors.
Jarrett Allen is a worthwhile target, but Yahoo Sports’ Jake Fischer reported that Cleveland would like to retain its core 4, while also praising the fit of the big man with Donovan Mitchell. What could work for Allen though? Smart and 9 is a bit too rich. Could they do something revolving around Kennard and any of Aldama, Konchar, and Ziaire Williams with the 9th pick? Will they need to add a future 1st too? That’s the trade package I’d explore to acquire someone like Allen, though it’s unlikely he’s dealt.
Brandon Ingram doesn’t make that much sense, especially with his hefty payday coming.
The Daily Memphian’s Chris Herrington proposed the idea in his “centers rankings” column of Santi Aldama and 9 for Jalen Duren. The former Tiger is intriguing to me, since he and Jaren would alleviate each other’s weaknesses — and he’s already one of the NBA’s most dominant rebounders. There have been murmurs of the Pistons wanting to sign Nic Claxton, which could make Duren more expendable. This would be a home-run trade, as it’s likely there’s no one better than Duren at the 9th pick — and worth noting, he’s still younger than Dalton Knecht, Zach Edey, Tristan Da Silva, and Devin Carter who are considered possibilities at 9.
Given the opportunity to add another rotation player on a cost-controlled contract, and the current landscape for trades, it’s hard to envision them trading out.
Trade Down, maybe out of the Top 10
2023: Dallas traded Davis Bertans and 10 for 12
2021: New Orleans traded Steven Adams, Eric Bledsoe, 10, 40, a protected future 1st, and a future 2nd to Memphis for Jonas Valanciunas, 17, and 51
2018: Philadelphia traded 10 to Phoenix for 16 and a future 1st
2016: Sacramento traded 8 to Phoenix for 13, 28, a future 2nd, and the draft rights to Bogdan Bogdanvoic
2014: Philadelphia traded 10 to Orlando for 12, a future 1st, and a future 2nd
2013: Minnesota traded 9 to Utah for 14 and 21
So the recent historic context indicates that a team trading down typically includes a salary dump going out with the higher pick, and the return yields either an additional 1st round pick and/or future draft capital. I don’t think the Grizzlies are in the “salary dump” business to trade down.
The Grizzlies are rumored to really like this draft, according to ESPN’s Jonathon Givony, which leads to speculation about trading down. I wouldn’t count it out, but I definitely fall in the “believe it when I see it” camp. Zach Kleiman has never traded down the board since taking over the team.
If the Grizzlies want multiple cracks at this draft, let’s identify teams with multiple picks between the 9th and 39th picks:
Utah: 10th, 29th, and 32nd. It’s hard see how they work out a good trade-down spot here with the Grizzlies getting additional picks.
New York Knicks: 24th and 25th. Moving down 15 spots to get 2 picks in the mid-20’s doesn’t seem likely.
Toronto: 19th and 31st. Toronto could be interested in something like this, but does Memphis slide 10 spots to acquire the 31st pick as well? No.
Milwaukee: 23rd and 33rd. The Bucks are old and need cheap, young depth. This gives them multiple cracks at it. If they aren’t trading picks for veterans, they won’t trade it for a higher draft pick.
Trading down for additional draft capital in this draft is unlikely, given how far down they really have to go from 9.
Now is there something that could involves swapping veteran players? Let’s weigh some potential offers.
If Utah really covets someone, could the Grizzlies swap the 9th and 10th picks and exchange either Santi Aldama or Ziaire Williams with Walker Kessler? The Grizzlies could get their starting center, and maybe take a perimeter swing at 10. Is that too rich for Utah to move up 1 spot? Do the Grizzlies need to add future draft capital in the form of 2nds to execute this deal?
In mock trades, Duop Reath and Robert Williams have been floated around as center options around 9 and 14. Reath is still mostly an unknown commodity as a 27 year-old rookie. The Blazers would need to add more to Williams to entice the Grizzlies to take the remainder of his deal with his injury history, including a season-ending knee injury. It’s hard to suggest he’ll be the same. Pass.
Orlando is trying to win. Unless they’re going for Isaiah Hartenstein, I don’t see Wendell Carter Jr. going anywhere in a 9 and 18 swap.
With Toronto, something like Ziaire and Konchar with the 9th pick for Kelly Olynyk and the 19th pick could be interesting. The Raptors could use this to chase someone like Nikola Topić or Ron Holland. The Grizzlies could acquire a floor-spacing big that can play next to Jaren Jackson Jr., while having an abundance of options at 19 — all keeping their current rotation intact.
We’ve mentioned some sort of Allen and Smart swap with Cleveland. Smart and 9 is a high price, but what if they swap picks with 9 and 20? It could be worthwhile, but retaining Marcus Smart seems more beneficial to a championship run than trading him. Nonetheless, swapping Smart for a championship-caliber center could balance the roster out, while also staying in the top-20.
Regardless, it’s hard to envision trading down. The teams just several spots back don’t have incredibly intriguing win-now pieces. The squads that do are too far down the draft board, and the ones that offer multiple top-40 picks have too far of a chasm between 9 and their 1st pick.
If the Grizzlies do look for another 1st round pick, it seems more likely they use the 39th pick with future 2nds to get back into the end of the 1st round — something to watch for, as New Orleans may be interested in trading the 21st pick for future seconds, according to Christian Clark of NOLA News.
While the rumors flying around suggest that there’s going to be movement all across the board, history tells us there’s marginal movement inside the top-10 — if any at all.
It’s incredibly likely the Memphis Grizzlies make a trade on draft night, and maybe it involves the 9th pick. It’s been a staple of Zach Kleiman’s work on draft night — use additional resources to go get their guy. The Grizzlies have this unique asset with the 9th pick. It could be used to bolster this roster one way or another.
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