Grizzlies prospect profile and fits: Reed Sheppard

The Grizzlies have targeted prospects of Reed Sheppard's profile in years past. Could the Grizzlies go for Sheppard, after his unbelievable 2-way impact at Kentucky?

Reed Sheppard, Guard, Kentucky

• Measurements: 6’1.75” (without shoes), 181. pounds, 6’3.25” wingspan

• Age: 19 years old (June 24, 2004)

• Per-36 (via Tankathon): 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 3.1 steals, 0.9 blocks

• Mock Draft placement: 3 - Rockets (ESPN), 5 - Pistons (No Ceilings), 6 - Hornets (NBA Big Board, The Ringer, Bleacher Report), 7 - Blazers (CBS Sports), 8 - Spurs (The Athletic), 9 - Grizzlies ( Yahoo Sports, Tankathon)

• Big Board placement: 5 (ESPN), 4 (Tankathon), 7 (The Ringer), 5 (No Ceilings), 8 (NBA Big Board), 4 (The Athletic)

Reed Sheppard exploded for Kentucky last season. He emerged from a likely 4-year “legacy” player, to a bonafide one-and-done player. He put together one of the most productive freshman seasons in the last 10 years, joining a mostly accomplished crowd of NBA players that boasted a box plus/minus +10 or higher as a freshman.

While Sheppard’s productivity shines on both sides of the ball, people are skeptical about how it translates, since he’s built more like a small point guard but operates as a combo guard. Nonetheless, he was a catalyst for the Kentucky Wildcats — as they were an insane 30 points per 100 possessions with Sheppard on the floor.

Can Sheppard’s sensational 2-way productivity ultimately outweigh his physical limitations?

Scouting Report

Looking at the film

Sheppard is a special 3-point shooter. He’s just as accurate making 3’s off the catch as he is off the dribble — knocking down 51.4% of his catch-and-shoot and “dribble jumper” 3’s, per Synergy Sports.

When playing off the ball, Sheppard is a potent 3-point weapon. His deft movement amplifies his knockdown shooting. He runs off screens and relocates towards the ball, while squaring his body when letting it fly. People will be skeptical of how he gets his shot off because of his size, but he possesses a quick release and spatial awareness to fire before closeouts.

Sheppard is a captivating pull-up shooter. Per Synergy Sports, he boasted a 65.1 effective field goal percentage (eFG) off the dribble. this past season — for context, Mike Conley led the NBA in this department (64.1) this season. He leverages ball screens to generate separation to let it fly from deep. He’s a monster in transition — a shot-hunter teams have to respect with his shooting, driving, and playmaking in the open floor. Whether it’s with stepback 3’s or mid-range shots, he possesses great balance when getting to his spots and elevating for his jumpers.

Sheppard doesn’t have this deep, dazzling bag. More often than not, he relies on change-of-pace moves — hesitation dribbles, crossovers, and retreat dribbles. His limitations as a ball-handler could hinder him with counters, but these other moves give him some downhill to put pressure on the rim.

Despite his size, Sheppard is a good finisher at the rim due to his craftiness and body control. Like his outside shooting, he stays moving along the perimeter too to identify better driving lanes. His potency in the pick-and-roll also amplifies his rim pressure — if the big hedges the ball screen to turn off the shot, he can reject it to get a clear driving lane downhill.

Sheppard is a lethal, versatile playmaker. Off the drive, he knows how to find his teammates — looking for cutting activity along the baseline, or shooters to kick to whenever the defense helps. His playmaking can be valuable when either initiating the offense, or capitalizing off shifts within the defense.

While Sheppard is a potent dribble-pass-shoot guard that operates with 0.5-second decision-making, he has some weaknesses offensively.

His finishing at the next level will be something to monitor. Because of his size, he’s not an above-the-rim finisher, which could hinder his finishing ability if defenses push him to suboptimal driving lanes.

Sheppard is a great passer that can throw creative or routine dimes. However, his passes could be a bit programmed, leading to defenses telegraphing them for turnovers.

Sheppard’s defensive instincts are nearly unmatched, as he’s a stocks (steals + blocks) machine. His size concerns will be more evident defensively at the next level, but he offsets it with impeccable timing on closeouts and deflections.

Sheppard has some bonkers blocks on closeouts. His timing and his 42” vertical allow him to alter, or even swat, shot attempts from beyond the arc or downhill. Though he has some on-ball issues (more on that in a bit), he extraordinarily recovers for rear-view contests/blocks.

Sheppard’s timing parlays into generating deflections and steals. It’s almost like he has spidey senses when jumping passing lanes.

Sheppard has a nose for the ball. He gets his hands on the ball off gathers, drives, and in the post. This skill will make him a potent help defender.

Sheppard’s event creation will lead to cycles in transition, where he’s absolutely lethal.

Sheppard’s defensive problems will come at the point-of-attack. His lateral quickness is shaky off counters. While his recovery time is good, screens could knock him out of the fray, as his navigation is inconsistent. Because of his frame, he doesn’t offer a ton of resistance downhill. His individual defense could create a conundrum with his defensive role — as his team early will gauge if he has the chops to defend ball-handlers at the point of attack, or if his defensive instincts could offset any potential matchup problems defending off the ball.

Even with his concerns, Reed Sheppard is an elite processor on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he’s always moving and is a quick, impactful dribble-pass-shoot decision-maker. Defensively, he’s a chaos creator with his deflections, steals, and blocks. Overlook him for physical traits at your own peril — he lays an undeniable impact on the game.

Fit with Grizzlies

Reed Sheppard’s fit with the Grizzlies is an interesting case, and I go back and forth on it.

On one hand, he embodies the type of prospect the Grizzlies have sought since Zach Kleiman’s front office has run the team. He’s an efficiency monster on both sides of the ball — generating high-value shots, and creating defensive events. All while not taking too much stock in the measurements — see: Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Xavier Tillman as examples.

And the other hand: the measurements. Sheppard is a small combo guard, leading to skepticism of the fit. The Grizzlies don’t have a ton of size in the backcourt between Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, and Luke Kennard. Granted, Sheppard could fill in Kennard’s spot, if the Grizzlies cannot afford to keep the veteran.

However, can the Grizzlies actually play Sheppard with Morant and Bane at the same time? I’m not sure because of the size issue. Obviously, you cannot necessarily draft for need, but when picking this high, you should be able to envision the guy to eventually play next to your core players in high-leverage situations.

Nonetheless, if the Grizzlies draft Sheppard, it’s a bet on his 2-way value.

He’s an absolute flamethrower, and he’d be one of the few players on the team that can get to the 3-ball off the dribble. When run off the line, he applies rim pressure with his finishing and playmaking abilities — and 2 points of emphasis for the Grizzlies are paint touches and high-quality shot generation.

Size will be a concern when it comes to gauge his positional versatility defensively. He’s also not as sharp on the ball than off ball, but he fits the Grizzlies M.O. of turning defense into offense.

Sheppard’s size could cause concerns about his playoff malleability, as it appears the league is leveling up with size across the perimeter. However, guards in the Eastern Conference should alleviate those worries a bit. Jalen Brunson is a high bar, but a 6’0” guard has arguably been the best player in the East this postseason. Derrick White, Donte DiVincenzo and Josh Hart are a bit bigger, but TJ McConnell and Miles McBride are 2 examples of undersized guards that can impact winning on both sides of the ball in playoff situations.

The Grizzlies have benefitted from focusing more on strong 2-way production over the measurements in recent drafts, and Reed Sheppard could be the next example.

Final judgement: Sheppard is pretty high on my board — roughly top-4 — though I do have concerns of fit next to Ja Morant and Desmond Bane (and Marcus Smart, to an extent). I’m not sure I’d pick him over Donovan Clingan — and it’d be a toss-up with Stephon Castle or Ron Holland. Sheppard could fill gaps if the Grizzlies cannot afford to keep Kennard, or if they need to trim further salary with John Konchar. All in all, even with fit concerns, Reed Sheppard would be a great pick, as his 2-way production fits the Grizzlies’ system like a glove.

Will he be there at 9? It’s more likely Sheppard is gone by the 3rd pick to Houston, with Charlotte at 6 being a reasonable floor. Nonetheless, Sheppard would likely be a trade-up target for the Grizzlies, if possible.

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