Grizzlies short-handed notebook: Vince Williams is undeniable, Rose rim pressure, wavy wings
The Memphis Grizzlies have been dealt a rough hand with a plethora of absences this season. Here are some things we've learned about players that have had increased minutes and responsibilities.
You can feel the light at the end of the tunnel, right? Ja Morant only has 2 games left in his 25-game suspension, while Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard are near their return timetables.
A barrage of absences to start the season have opened ample opportunities for players to receive minutes — as everyone, except for GG Jackson, has had shots at the rotation. Some players shined through these chances, and others struggled with the heightened roles and responsibilities. In the process, questions either became answered or more glaring — looking at the wing rotation.
With the returns for Morant, Smart, and Kennard on the horizon, the rotation and roles will start to normalize and hopefully stabilize for the Grizzlies to regain some ground in the Western Conference.
Through this vigorous start to the season, and the storms of absences, there were some observations about the back half of the rotations — ones that could be factors through the regular season.
Vince Williams Jr.’s undeniable impact
Of all the players on the latter part of the roster, there’s no bigger winner than Vince Williams Jr. The two-way player immediately impacted positive basket with his infectious energy on both sides of the ball.
Williams is 5th in the NBA in on/off differential, as the Grizzlies are a whopping 20.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, per Cleaning the Glass. They score 12.6 more points per 100 possessions and give up 8.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
His defense stands out immediately. The Grizzlies have needed some role depth in terms of defensive stoppers, especially through Smart’s absence. Whether it’s absences, or facing a team with multiple star offensive weapons, who can step up and succeed in the challenge?
Vince Williams Jr. has answered the call.
Over the past few weeks, he’s taken on a variety of matchups from Kyrie Irving, to Jaylen Brown, to Kevin Durant, to Devin Booker, to Luka Doncic. The matchup data doesn’t do a ton of favors, as star offensive players can get theirs even in the midst of good defense — though he held Luka to just 2-9 shooting earlier this week. Evident through his impact, his upside as a perimeter defender is intriguing.
He has the tools to thrive in this capacity, as he’s 6’6” with a 7’0” wingspan. He utilizes his length to harass ball-handlers and to deny off the ball. His tenacity and edge stand out here — telling the media he draws inspiration from Patrick Beverley. He looks to deny the pass, while getting up in his assignment’s jersey whether they have the ball or not. He utilizes his wingspan well on closeouts, too. His screen navigation is solid, catching up to his offensive player and returning to stay attached to the hip.
Williams isn’t a crazy events creator, but he also possesses a block percentage of 1.0 — 79th percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass. It’s something within his game to monitor, since he has the skillset to wreak havoc defensively.
Offensively, it’s rather simple. He keeps the ball moving, and he’s provided some outside shooting. He’s shooting 37.5% on 3’s, and hitting 47% of non-corner 3’s. He’s also converting on 80% of his shots at the rim.
Both sides of the ball, he’s a maniac on the glass for rebounds. The Grizzlies are in the bottom 10 in rebounds — feeling the absences of Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, and Morant quite heavily here. Fans may point to the bigs, but it’s a committee effort. Williams is doing his part.
It may be quite difficult to keep Vince Williams Jr. out of the rotation (More on the rotation soon). He’s a young wing that’s simply an energizer in the 2nd unit — perhaps a two-way chaos agent they’ve missed with De’Anthony Melton. While the rotation question is the most pressing one, two-way conversations should be interesting soon. They don’t have to do so during the season, unless they want to play him in the postseason. However, he’s shown to be a player worth investing in, this season and beyond.
Derrick Rose’s rim pressure
How shocked would you be if I told you that Derrick Rose’s best season in terms of efficiency at the rim was at this stage of his career? Yeah, that Derrick Rose.
Rose has shot 64% at the rim this year, right around his career-high established in the 2017-18 season.
He navigates downhill well and finds the right finishing angles on his way to the tin. Where he’s struggling though is the floater zone, as he’s shooting a career-low 24% on “short mid” range shots — per Cleaning the Glass.
Rose is utilizing his rim pressure to find open shooters off the drive. He ranks in the 76th percentile in Drive Passout Rate (0.43) and 75th percentile in Drive Assist Rate (0.12). He also creates 22.86 potential assists per 100 passes and 16.19 assist points per 75 possessions — the 92nd and 91st percentile, respectively, per The B-Ball Index.
The Grizzlies’ offense has predicated around finding good flow and shots within drive-and-kick offense. Through Morant’s suspension and Tyus Jones’ loss, the Grizzlies don’t possess many ball-handlers with drive-and-kick acumen. Rose is drawing defenses with his rim pressure to generate clean looks from beyond the arc.
It comes at a detriment at times — see his 5-turnover performance against the Pistons — but he loves getting to the jump pass. He waits until the defense is ultimately collapsed before kicking out to an open shooter with ample space and time to fire from downtown.
It’s unclear whether or not Rose will stay in the rotation when Morant and Smart are back in the rotation. They may opt for more defense with a combination of John Konchar, Vince Williams, and David Roddy at the fringes of the rotation. However, he’s shown he can stay fresh and provide a bit of offensive pop off the bench in the wake of injury for 15 minutes a game.
Wavy Ziaire Williams production
The Ziaire Williams experience this season has been a rollercoaster. He confidently proclaimed how much he worked this offseason and that he was ready to take an open starting spot. He earned said spot with his stellar preseason play. Since then, it’s been a wave of production.
Williams has had several performances indicating he can make an impact on this Grizzlies team with his size as a perimeter defender, outside shooter, and secondary creation. Overall though, the minutes have been rough. The Grizzlies 14.8 points per 100 possessions worse with Williams on the floor, as they have a net rating of -15 in those mintues — per Cleaning the Glass.
Williams’ shooting has been inconsistent — 40% (10/25) on corner 3’s, but 32.4% overall. The stationary corner shooting element in his development, but he’s struggling where he’s found success: at the rim and in the mid-range. His rim percentage has plummeted from 82% his rookie season to 74% to now 59%, and he’s shooting 35% on “long mid” range jumpers after converting between 58-61% of those looks in his first 2 seasons — per Cleaning the Glass.
Williams has trended neutral as a defender within the metrics, as he boasts a defensive EPM (estimated plus/minus) of +0.2 — per dunksandthrees. However, he’s been burned as a perimeter defender that’s over-helping and giving up 3’s.
It begs the questions — still — of what Ziaire Williams can become. He’s experienced some growth in areas where he needed to improve, but his prior strengths have diminished. I wonder how he could look offensively with Morant on the floor, as he’s benefitted as a lob threat and transition finisher with their star point guard on the floor. Will increased efficiency in that area build up his impact? Will his minutes and his production look better in a reduced role where he can focus on 3-and-D + play-finishing, instead of creation?
It’s a wait and see, as he’s shown he can be serviceable next to Morant.
Williams’ rotation spot is murky though. Taylor Jenkins tried Williams in the Mavericks’ game to shaky results, and Jenkins admitted he wouldn’t have been in the rotation against Houston if Bane played. He’s been in and out of the rotation the past several weeks, as it seems Vince Williams, John Konchar, and (temporarily) Jaylen Nowell passed him in the pecking order.
The Grizzlies’ utilization of Ziaire Willams — as well as his impact — will be one to monitor over the next 6-8 months, with a salary increase due in 2024-25 and restricted free agency in 2025.
Finding the right foot forward with David Roddy
David Roddy hasn’t done anything flashy within this chase for a pop from the wing position. However, he’s simply been solid — not exactly what you want to hear right now, but could be good when the Grizzlies have more reinforcements.
Roddy is still not the most efficient offensive player. Mentioned earlier in the offseason, his finishing still comes in waves. At times, his physicality shines when powering to the basket within the right finishing angle. However, his lack of handle and explosiveness hinders him as well.
Roddy’s outside shooting is mediocre — just converting 30% of his 3’s (3.5 per game) and 32.5% of his catch-and-shoot 3’s — per Synergy Sports. However, he’s making 42% of his corner 3’s, per Cleaning the Glass.
Roddy’s defense has trended neutral with a dEPM of +0.4, per dunksandthrees. He’s trusted with various defensive assignments, and can switch up and down positions. However, he lacks signature defensive stopping performances that make his defense shine.
Within this opening quarter of the season, the Grizzlies are finding out the proper position for Roddy. He operated as a small-ball 4 quite often to begin the season, but to no avail. The Grizzlies got obliterated by 15.7 points per 100 possessions with Roddy at the 4. His 6’5” frame leaves the Grizzlies a bit undersized in these lineups. However, the Grizzlies are trending neutral with him at the 3, with a 0.8 NET rating — surrendering 110.1 points per 100 possessions (83rd percentile, per Cleaning the Glass).
It’s beneficial to utilize him as a wing defender that harasses opponents with his physicality and frame at the point of attack, while slotting him as an interchangeable forward next to a finesse 4.
Roddy hasn’t popped off the page in this quarter of the season — though providing some upside as a 3-and-D forward with some drive pop. He also hasn’t played poorly enough to push him out of the rotation. Given his indicators in a more natural position and as a stationary shooter, I’m intrigued with how Roddy looks as a bench role player when Morant, Smart, and Kennard return.
It’s been a rough start to the season, but with calvary on the way, the Grizzlies should begin to see how the roster in its intended design. Adding 3 NBA-level perimeter players — 1 being an All-NBA point guard and 2 being players with an elite skill — should help make everything flow a lot smoother. And from there, maybe players that have been entrusted with more responsibilities at the early part of the season can find a groove and establish themselves as a trustworthy rotation player.
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