Grizzlies: Buying, selling, holding 12-game samples
The Grizzlies have hit the dozen mark for games played this year. What trends or stats are I keeping an eye on, or dismissing, in the early-season sample?
Through a dozen games, the Memphis Grizzlies are 7-5. In this sample, they’ve gone without Desmond Bane for 7 games, Marcus Smart for 6, Ja Morant for 4, Jaren Jackson Jr. for 2, and both Vince Williams Jr. and GG Jackson for all 12. Winnable losses have existed in this stretch. Ultimately though, if you told many Grizzlies followers they’d be 7-5 with the early injury track record, they’d probably take it.
Real contribution has happened up and down the main roster to keep the Grizzlies in the early mix in the Western Conference thus far — currently 7th. As the sample size builds, some trends will last, falter, or even progress.
With that being said, as part of an annual exercise I do early in the season, what statistical trends are worth buying, selling, or holding for the Grizzlies?
(Side note: I usually do 10 games, but did 12 because I was in Oxford for the Ole Miss and Georgia game the day after the 10th game. Hotty Toddy.)
In this exercise, I only accounted for players that have played 75% of the season thus far — at. least eight games. Players not considered here due to an even smaller sample size: Marcus Smart, John Konchar, Desmond Bane, and Luke Kennard.
Buying
Ja Morant assists per game: 9.1
Ja Morant has taken an extraordinary leap as a playmaker to become one of the very best in the league — ranking 1st in assist percentage (47.1%). His current assist average would be a Grizzlies’ franchise record too. He’s always referred to as a pass-first point guard, and it’s resonating with this new offense. With more frequent motion — cutting, re-spacing, and transition offense — the floor has opened up even more for Morant to find his teammates. So why not buy this early-season trend?
In addition, we’ll begin to find out what kind of Morant the Grizzlies need. Is it the 30-PPG supernova ready to terrorize anybody protecting the rim? Or the 20-point, 10-assist attacker that slices and dices the defense with his gear-shifting and maestro playmaking? Watch for the latter. The Grizzlies have seen offensive improvements across the board — most importantly from Morant’s co-stars, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane. He has strong play-finishers in Zach Edey and Santi Aldama alongside him as well. This team has more shooting talent than years past.
The Grizzlies’ offense is tailored to maximize Ja Morant’s playmaking to an absolute apex — which could lead to not only him setting a career-high in assists per game, but also him launching himself into the conversation of the NBA’s best table-setters.
Team offensive rating: 116.8
The Grizzlies have an infrastructure to continue a high-powered offense. They establish great pace, move the ball exceptionally well, and seek transition offense. More specifically, they are feasting inside the arc due to its rim pressure and cutting excellence — shooting 57.5% on 2’s this season, good for 3rd-best in the NBA, per Synergy Sports. As the Grizzlies (hopefully) get healthier and continue building familiarity with each other and the new offense, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them maintain a top-10 offense spearheaded by its talented Big 3.
Santi Aldama 2-point percentage: 63.5
Santi Aldama is experiencing a breakout right now — averaging 13.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 3.8 assists. The 3-point percentage (26.7) isn’t encouraging; progression to the mean (roughly 35% the past two seasons) feels inevitable. However, I want to focus on his scoring inside the arc, as he’s shooting a career-best 63.5% on 2’s.
The variety in which he’s getting to his spots shines brightly. In transition, he’s making plays as a initiator and facilitator. He’s incredibly active in set offense — corner cuts, slot cuts, handoff’s, or closeout attacks to get to the rim. This new offense has empowered Aldama, and has tapped into his smooth mobility as a 7-footer. In turn, it’s made him a viable option at the 3, as he’s still spacing the floor and capitalizing on space even in this early-season outside shooting slump.
There are several moving parts in Aldama’s breakout, but his offensive versatility has been the catalyst at the center of his play to start the year.
Jaren Jackson Jr. stocks per game: 2.7
Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn’t quite been destroyer-of-all-worlds defender from his Defensive Player of the Year campaign. However, he’s venturing close to his 2021-22 impact levels where he was a First-Team All-Defense member. While his block numbers are lower (career-low 1.2 blocks per game and 2.1 block percentage), his defensive impact is still transcendent — as the Grizzlies are giving up 22 points per 100 possessions fewer points with Jackson on the floor than off, the second-best mark per Cleaning the Glass.
Jackson is back to his natural position as a rim-roamer, allowing him to venture out and cover more space. In the process, he’s able to blow up passing lanes a lot more frequently. As a result, he’s averaging a career-best 1.2 steals and ranking in the 89th percentile among bigs in steal percentage (2.1), per Cleaning the Glass.
Jackson’s progress in the steal department leads me to buying stock in his … stocks. There seems to be tradeoff with his block numbers with his star-level offensive output. Nonetheless, his progression as a more versatile event creator should buoy All-Defense level impact from the former Defensive Player of the Year.
Selling
Zach Edey rebounds per game: 6.8
I’m selling this number for Edey’s rebounds, simply because this is the lowest we’ll ever see it this year. At the beginning of the season, it was evident he was adjusting to the speed of the game — which also meant figuring out best positioning on the glass. While different nuances will take time for Edey, he’s growing more comfortable as a rebounder rapidly.
Over the past eights outings (since the win against Milwaukee), he’s averaging 8.4 rebounds — including 3.6 offensive rebounds — in 23 minutes per game. He’s also 7th in offensive rebounds per 36 minutes (5.3).
Edey’s defensive rebounding is alright, as he’s adjusting to playing center field coverage — defending in space and altering shots specifically. However, his offensive rebounding will be paramount. Typically lingering from the dunker spot, he’s finding how to leverage his size to crash the glass and generate extra possessions. For a team that thrives on winning the possession battle, Zach Edey’s development will be pivotal for them. And as he gets more NBA minutes under his belt, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him average 8 or more rebounds a game.
Jay Huff true shooting percentage: 72.7
The only reason to sell this mark would be for historical context. Huff’s current true shooting percentage would be the 7th-best in a single season in NBA history. The only players to boast at least a 70 true shooting percentage on double-digit three-point volume are Dwight Powell (37 three’s attempted, 72.5 TS%) and Nikola Jokic (149 three’s attempted, 70.1 TS%). It’s quite a tough feat.
However, it shouldn’t dismiss how reliable Jay Huff has been offensively. His shot quality is exquisite — bombing catch-and-shoot 3’s, and crashing the basket as a finisher. The reverse dunk is the deadliest signature move in basketball. When it comes to the kinds of shots you want from a supporting cast, Huff fits it to a T — while also stretching the floor as a big. And he’s done so at a rate that makes him one of the most efficient per-minute players among reserves.
Huff has been another diamond in the rough for the Grizzlies’ scouting department through the two-way pipeline that has also become the South Bay Lakers pipeline.
Scotty Pippen Jr. assists per game: 6.2
The other former two-way contract, South Bay alumnus. Scotty Pippen Jr. has been a strong hand in the Grizzlies’ backcourt to start the season. The new offense tailors to his strengths as a pressuring point guard that loves to push the pace. Like Huff, the historical context of this assist rate from a backup point guard suggests it’s high — as only twelve players have averaged six or more assists while starting fewer than 25 games:
However, Pippen is putting himself into the rotation in sharpie with his play. While some of his assists are run-of-the-mill, make-the-right-swing play, he’s making impressive reads in transition, out of the pick-and-roll, and off drive-and-kick’s in this early season. Heck, Pippen’s current assist average could be a hold due to injuries, as well as the Grizzlies’ offensive system. Its adamance to play with pace and to move the basketball yield high assist numbers.
Even if this assist average doesn’t hold, Pippen has quickly solidified himself as one of the best backup point guards in the league.
Jake LaRavia steals per game: 0.8
I already wrote about Jake LaRavia last week, and dove into his defensive performance. If he’s staying in the rotation, it wouldn’t shock me if he finishes with a steal average better than 0.8. His combination of aggression, anticipation, and size makes for a promising defensive foundation as an event creator.
Holding
Jaylen Wells points per game: 11.2
I’m specifically holding Wells at points due to what his role might become with a healthy rotation. Is he still in a 10-11 man rotation with more bodies back? No idea, but he’s played his way into making it one heck of a conversation.
Wells has flashed more of an in-between game than what was shown at Washington State. He’s shooting 52% in the “short mid-range,” which ranks in the 87th percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass. He’s still getting comfortable off the dribble as a driver, but he leverages his body well downhill. His footwork is good — typically utilizing his pivot foot to either create finishing windows or to generate separation to elevate for a jump shot. It’s also evident in deceleration and euro steps.
There’s also room for improvement for Wells as a scorer. He’s currently shooting 34.8% on catch-and-shoot 3’s, per Synergy Sports. With Desmond Bane, Marcus Smart, Luke Kennard, and Vince Williams Jr. back in the mix — and Ja Morant later — he’ll have opportunities next to quality playmaking to generate cleaner shots from beyond the arc. And it could help him develop a rhythm from beyond the arc.
Nonetheless, Wells’ early production as a 3-and-D wing has made him an interesting fixture in the Grizzlies’ immediate and long-term plans.
Brandon Clarke minutes per game: 15.1
Brandon Clarke’s role is interesting. His per-minute production has slipped across the board, sans steals (2.2 per 36 minutes). He’s not nearly as efficient as a scorer either, 51% from the field. He doesn’t have the exact same pop offensively. It also feels like the emphasis on Clarke has been quieter than years past. With the exception of Yuki Kawamura and Colin Castleton, he’s last in minutes per game — though blowouts could play a small role in that, too — and second-to-last in field goals attempts per game (4.6).
But at the same time, the Grizzlies have been remarkable with Clarke on the floor. They’re currently 24.4 points per 100 possessions better with Clarke on the floor than off, per Cleaning the Glass. His defense is the reason why, as he’s positioned himself well as an anchor to alter shots, switch in space, and disrupt passing lanes.
As long as they’re doing well with him on the floor, particularly in lineups with Jaren Jackson Jr., he’ll play. In the meantime, it’ll be pivotal for his production to turn a corner and round into form.
Grizzlies half-court offense: 0.975 PPP (14th) — dead-last in 3-pointers attempted out of the half-court
I’ve discussed it with the offensive rating. They’re finding their stride in the halfcourt offense thanks to its player and ball movement. They’re 4th in field goal percentage in half-court offense (46.7%) and in 2-point field goal percentage (54.2%).
So, why am I holding on this stat? There’s room for improvement, particularly with the shooting. The Grizzlies are last in 3’s attempted (24.3) and in 3’s made (8.2) — as well as 21st in 3-point percentage (33.7). Familiarity with the system — spacing, player movement, and ball movement — should help. The return of Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard should bolster this number too.
The Grizzlies have been on a quest to revamp their offense, and the half-court offense will be the benchmark people keep their eyes on the most to identify improvement.
Jaren Jackson Jr. 3-point percentage: 39.2
I’m holding on this particular stat, because it could be the most pivotal to the Grizzlies’ contention status. Jackson shot 39.4% from 3 his sophomore year — leaving people to wonder if he could become a prominent floor-spacer as a big. Since his knee injury in 2021, that touch left him as he trended closer to the low 30’s — with the exception of 2022-23 where he shot 35.5% from 3.
Don’t look now but that high-30’s mark is returning. He looks comfortable right now from 3, usually firing when relocating or seeking early offense.
The Grizzlies need Jackson to be a positive shooter in order to reach its upside. They don’t have a lot of reliable shooting around the top-end of the roster. Morant is more of a driver/slasher. Smart is a willing shooter, but the volume leaves a lot to be desired. Edey is a low-volume shooter even with the flashes.
Jackson has the volume without it accounting for a heavy portion of his shot diet, as roughly a third of his field goal attempts come from beyond the floor. At the same time, his positional versatility could help bend the defense to open up driving lanes for Morant, Bane, his teammates, and even himself.
Returning to form as an efficient volume shooter could lead to quite the season for Jackson for individual accomplishments — and could also lead to the Grizzlies getting where they want to go in May and June.
We’ll wait and see how these trends hold through the course of an 82-game season. However, each component has played a role in the Grizzlies’ solid start to the 2024-25 season.
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