Grizzlies: Buying, selling, holding 10-game samples
Grizzlies: Buying, selling, holding 10-game samples
At the 10-game mark, what are some Grizzlies numbers that are intriguing or dismissive? Will any of these numbers hold, improve, or regress?
The Memphis Grizzlies have hit the 10-game mark, and its 2-8 run has been disappointing. It’s sent the fanbase and (national) analysts alike into a frenzy, wondering what’s in store for the Grizzlies amidst this slow start.
The season isn’t defined by 10 games though. No championships are won within the first 10 games of the season. No definitive judgements can be made on a player in this sample size as well (long live the Garrett Temple and Shelvin Mack blazing starts in 2018).
However, the 10-game early season sample — alike any stretch of the year — can serve as good barometers. It helps gauge where a player or team may be improving or regressing, a mark to monitor over stretches of weeks or months. Sometimes, it could be shaken off as “small sample size” numbers that simply need more games to normalize the data. Other times, the data could suggest it’s all true — a leap or a decline is unfolding before our very eyes.
In an annual exercise, I examine this 10-game sample from the Memphis Grizzlies and which data points I’m buying, selling, or holding.
Only 4 players have played all 10 games: Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Marcus Smart, and David Roddy. I dive deeper into their stats, while also adding some team-centric stats as well.
Buying
Jaren Jackson Jr. 6.8 rebounds
Grizzlies faithful won’t like to see this one, as rebounding has always been something demanded from Jackson. However, with the addition of Bismack Biyombo, Jackson doesn’t need to be relied on the glass as heavily. It’s quite a conundrum with his rebounding, perhaps a trade-off within its scheme.
Operating as a rim-roamer and help defender, Jackson tends to find himself on the perimeter in defensive assignments. Blocking shots shifts him out of the fray for rebounding — issuing a trade-off between him corralling rebounds or swatting shots.
While Jackson isn’t an elite rebounder hiding in plain sight, his low rebounding numbers are offset by his defensive impact, as well as the presence of glass-eating center with a committee approach around them.
If Jackson ultimately averages somewhere in this neighborhood — “high 6” to “low 7” range — it’s not a total bummer, even though his production is on a “per minute” basis. It’s more of a status quo with the scheme. However, it’s imperative for his defensive output to remain, while the Grizzlies find a way to gain an advantage on the glass (currently -3 on the boards).
Marcus Smart 13.4 points per game
Marcus Smart’s offense has been a mixed bag. His efficiency numbers inside the arc (57.9%) are the best of his career thus far — with his highest scoring average coinciding — but his 3-point shooting (28.8%) has been off. He’s providing flashes of solid playmaking with pick-and-roll creation and with “assist of the year” dimes, but dishing out a ton of turnovers (3.7 per game).
But we’ll zoom back out and focus on his scoring output, and why I’m buying it. Aforementioned, his efficiency has been a rollercoaster of sorts with improved 2-point scoring and cold 3-point shooting. You can argue for progression or regression to the mean at some point. However, with Ja Morant returning into the lineup, he should see more efficient scoring opportunities with his creation responsibilities reduced. As a result, those looks should be assisted more often, or coming through a more clear advantage.
Marcus Smart wasn’t brought in to be a scorer, but offensively his role is to be a connector. The Grizzlies traded for him for extra playmaking, opportune scoring, and advantage creation.
When Smart is in his optimal role, his value should shine brighter, and his scoring average could be just one of the several barometers to account for.
13.5 three-pointers made per game
The Grizzlies are firing more 3’s than ever before, launching 40.7 triples per game (5th in the league). They’re converting on just 33.2% of them (24th) in the league, but they’re 7th in makes with 13.5 per game. Prior to the season, I advocated for them to shoot at least 40 three’s per game, in the absence of Ja Morant. This formula has been shaky this year, as the Grizzlies are 1-4 in games where they’ve attempted 40 or more 3’s, but they were 10-4 in those outings last year.
Will the volume continue with Morant back? We’ll see.
However, the number of 3’s made should hold — which could be beneficial for the team’s halfcourt offense, one that’s still struggling mightily. Even if the volume dwindles, the looks should be cleaner from the Morant’s gravity and playmaking prowess, as well as advantages created in 2nd and 3rd actions.
In addition, progression to the mean from its best shooters — Desmond Bane and (evident at the moment) Luke Kennard — will be huge for perimeter production. And that doesn’t discount players like Marcus Smart or David Roddy finding a rhythm from 3-point range.
Is this the year the Grizzlies become a more potent 3-point shooting team? (Okay, I’ll hold on that.)
Selling
Desmond Bane 35.4% from 3
Easiest sell of the year? Absolutely. Desmond Bane is a career 42% 3-point shooter. Even if he dips out of the 40% range, it shouldn’t be this drastic. This 3-point percentage doesn’t represent his prowess as a shooter, but it highlights how much his role has grown.
Bane is taking even more shot attempts (21.6 field goals and 9.9 three’s per game). More of his shots are unassisted, and his usage rate has skyrocketed above 30% — ranking in the 97th percentile among wings, per Cleaning the Glass.
The looks aren’t the ones he’s used to seeing, due to the defensive attention he’s receiving and his creation responsibilities. His 3-point percentage is hard to balk at, because of his growth as a creator — which has been wicked nice.
A good barometer for progression to the mean as a 3-point shooter is his catch-and-shoot numbers (40.5% overall, and 45.5% on unguarded attempts). Morant’s return should normalize Bane’s role and generate more favorable looks from deep, further enhancing both his and the Grizzlies’ offense.
Marcus Smart 3.7 turnovers per game
Another obvious sell, but this one requires a bit more caution to navigate.
Smart’s turnover number should dwindle with fewer on-ball responsibilities — something they’re alleviating with Jacob Gilyard’s arrival into the starting lineup, and should normalize when Morant returns.
However, Smart is prone to turnovers, as he was 9th in the league last year in turnover percentage. His drives and passes could be a bit daring and erratic.
This weakness is a part of the game, and while the turnovers won’t pop off this frequently, it’s worth monitoring. How far would a more optimal offensive role go in minimizing the sting of his turnovers?
Assists per game: 24.3 (21st)
I’ll keep this one a little shorter. The Grizzlies have been in the top-10 in assists per game each season of the “GrzNxtGen” era. An elite playmaker in Ja Morant is set to return soon. We should notice the ball zip and flow a whole lot better.
Holding
Jaren Jackson Jr. 2.3 assists per game
Jackson’s playmaking is a part of his next evolution of a player. As teams collapse on his drives, or double his post-ups, can he dissect the defenses as a passer? He’s showing upside in this department. Some of his assists are handoff’s within the flow of the offense, but he’s making a more concerted effort to dish the extra pass. How it holds will be fascinating, as Morant’s return creates more play-finishing. Nonetheless, it’s a positive development certainly worth monitoring.
David Roddy 60.4% on 2’s
Roddy has an interesting body type that could be an asset or liability for drives. His strength allows him to power through contact. However, his height and lack of explosiveness could stifle his layup attempts. This season though, he’s picking and choosing his spots better to be a more effective scorer inside the arc. He’s decisive in transition, zooming and muscling his way to the bucket. The Grizzlies are utilizing him more as a screener, opening up rolling and cutting opportunities. He’s also crashing the glass for offensive rebounds, as well. While his outside shot is absent (4-19), it’s a solid foundation for his game that warrants for a consistent role in the wing rotation.
Defensive Rating: 111.4, 15th
The Grizzlies defense has been a wishy washy. Their 3-point defense is a sore spot identified by media and fanbase alike. They’re still in the top-10 in both steals (8.5) and blocks (6.5) per game — joining the 76ers and Blazers as the only teams with those honors in both categories.
Their defense usually starts slow and surges. However, their defensive rating is about on par with last year’s mark (110.7). Where I hold is with the rank. As more samples develop, could the Grizzlies inch closer towards becoming a top defense? Worth noting — in the even smaller sample size of 4 games, they’re 7th in defense since Bismack Biyombo entered the rotation.
When the Grizzlies develop more synergy defensively, is the presence of the past two Defensive Player of the Year winners — Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marcus Smart — become more felt?
It’s a “wait and see”. However, if the Grizzlies’ offense isn’t going to be great — or even league-average — they need the defensive to return to elite levels. And the infrastructure is there for them to do so.
Even smaller data points to monitor
Only 4 players have played in all 10 games. What are some quick hit data sizes to watch for as the sample size grows?
Luke Kennard, 55.7 eFG% — Kennard has found his shooting touch after a slow start. With his shot diet mainly consisting of outside shots, this number should flirt with the 60’s.
Xavier Tillman: 1.7 steals per game — Getting this kind of production in the steals department is crazy, and it’s huge for defending in space. For Tillman, it’s about common, as he’s ranked 96th and 99th percentile in steal percentage in the two prior seasons (per Cleaning the Glass).
Ziaire Williams 37.7 FG% — Williams has had a shaky start to the season. His field goal percentage represents inconsistency from beyond the arc (28.9%) and inside it (48.4%). It’s imperative for Williams to find his flow in the offense, among other things, to impact winning basketball and stay in the rotation.
Bismack Biyombo 9.6 rebounds — Replacing Steven Adams is a tall task, and Bismack Biyombo is tasked with the responsibility. His rebounding has been encouraging for a team in dire need of help on the glass, and his average specifically will be a barometer in gauging how the team is faring without the Big Kiwi.
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