Grizzlies: 5 things to watch for in 2025
The Memphis Grizzlies are poised for a huge 2025 campaign to see how far they can go in their quest for a NBA championship.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ 2024 campaign was riddled with injuries, leading to a gap year. It wasn’t all that bad, as they came away with large samples on GG Jackson and Vince Williams, and their lottery pick resulted in their center of the future in Zach Edey.
The close for 2024 was a lot sweeter than the start, as the Grizzlies finished the calendar year as a top-3 team in the Western Conference and top-5 in the league. Alongside a revamped coaching staff, Taylor Jenkins has architected a Grizzlies offense that doesn’t resemble your older sibling’s Memphis Grizzlies. They play with pace and movement, while seeking high-efficiency shots — a system that forces the defense to account for all 5 guys. They’ve done this while retaining its elite defense.
In the process, Jaren Jackson Jr. looks like an All-NBA talent. Ja Morant is dishing out more assists than ever — in terms of volume. Desmond Bane is finding his groove after a near 50-40-90 month of December. And several players are growing comfortable in different areas of the offense. Zach Edey and Jaylen Wells both are Rookie of the Year candidates as starters on a playoff team. More importantly, it’s translated to winning.
Now the calendar turns to 2025. With the trade deadline nearby, teams are assessing where they are among the league’s hierarchy and acting to align its roster for its goals. Playoff positioning will get more testy, as teams jockey for homecourt advantages and to dodge the play-in. For the Grizzlies, they’re looking to validate their contention status ahead of a January that presents matchups against its Western Conference peers.
As the Grizzlies enter 2025 looking to return to the playoffs with high expectations, what should we watch for with eyes towards May, June, and an NBA championship?
Will the injury riddle ever end?
In a span of two weeks, the injury report for the Grizzlies went from this…
… to this…
As the Grizzlies enter the new year, the question is will it ever end with the injuries?
It’s not like these are phantom injuries that just pop up out of nowhere. We saw Ja Morant get leveled by a screen, Marcus Smart have his finger bend funny, Zach Edey get knocked in the face, and Santi Aldama, Vince Williams Jr. and Jake LaRavia sprain their ankles.
Hey, pretty good news though — it might be short-lived. Edey, Clarke, LaRavia, and Kawamura are all listed as “questionable” for tonight’s game.
From there, it trends pretty positive. Aldama’s injury is week-to-week, and Smart will be re-evaluated in two weeks, per Grizzlies PR’s 12/28 medical update. From Grizzlies PR’s 12/20 medical update, Vince Williams Jr. is expected to return in now 1-to-4 weeks. From the Grizzlies PR’s 12/4 medical update, GG Jackson is expected to return within now 2-to-4 weeks. Ja Morant is out week-to-week with his Grade 1 AC sprain — an injury that trends towards a two-week injury.
No matter how it shakes in the short-term, health will always be a question with this team. Yes, it’s a question with every team, but it’s under a bigger microscope when there’s history beyond it.
Ja Morant hasn’t consistently on the floor the past few seasons. It’s been two years since he’s played five consecutive games. He’s missed four playoff games in his career.
Marcus Smart hasn’t even played the equivalent of half-a-season as a Grizzly (more on that shortly). Then, they have other role players that have injury history — Brandon Clarke and Luke Kennard, in particular.
It’s not a knock at durability. It’s sports; sometimes you have unlucky injuries. Morant was drilled on a screen one possession, and undercut on an alley-oop attempt on another. Smart’s fingers bent the wrong way on a drive, or on 3-point celebrations. How many Grizzlies have we seen sprain their ankle this year?
It’s absurd. It’s brutal.
The injury (un)luck zapped the 2023-24 season. Yes, it brought some good — Vince, GG, Edey — but it was a playoff year taken from the Ja-Jaren-Bane core. It’d be a massive bummer if health hindered the Grizzlies in 2025.
If so, how far can the Grizzlies contend?
Through the 2024 portion of the 2024-25 season, the Grizzlies have shown that they’re a devastating team even if they’re remotely healthy. Entering 2025, the Grizzlies are:
the only team in the top-5 for both Offensive (116.6, 5th) and Defensive Rating (108.3, 4th)
1st in points per game (123.3), the 7th-highest scoring average in NBA history
2nd in rebounds per game (48.6)
3rd in offensive rebounds per game (12.9)
2nd in assists per game (30.5)
7th in steals per game (9.1)
3rd in blocks per game (6.5)
6th in field goal percentage (48.2)
The Grizzlies have the statistical profile of an elite team. They have had statement wins to close 2024 with a gutsy road victory over the defending champion Celtics and a 50-point thrashing over the Golden State Warriors.
Even within this upside, there’s still room for growth, as well as chances to prove themselves among the league’s elite. They’re currently 10-8 against the Western Conference — with only 1 win coming against a fellow top-6 team — and this month offers ample opportunity to face off against potential playoff foes.
In addition, their team doesn’t exactly meet the typical profile of a contender, given their youth — highlighted by two rookies in the starting lineup. On top of that, injuries have prevented this team from gaining reps together.
On the other hand, the Grizzlies’ trio is about as good as any other trio in the league, and it all makes sense together. Ja Morant is a proven playoff gamer — averaging 27.3 points, 8.6 assists, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals across 19 games in his postseason career. The same can be said for Desmond Bane, who’s averaged 20.3 points per game on 42.8% shooting from 3 (7.7 attempts per game) in the playoffs since becoming a starter. Jaren Jackson Jr. doesn’t have the playoff numbers of Morant or Bane, but has transformed into an elite two-way big man since his last series and seems primed for a massive 2025.
The Grizzlies have the potential to go far in the postseason. Hopefully, good health allows them to assess how far they truly have to go to reach the ultimate goal of winning a championship.
How much are the Grizzlies willing to spend in draft capital for a trade?
The Grizzlies have already been in trade rumors this season. According to Marc Stein and ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, they were deep in the race for Dorian Finney-Smith. The framework was Luke Kennard, John Konchar, and their 2025 first-round pick (ranging from top-15 to top-17 protected) to Brooklyn for Finney-Smith and a 2025 second-round pick. According to Hoops Hype’s Michael Scotto, the Grizzlies were unwilling to trade a first-round pick from next year and beyond. A combination of factors existed in missing out on Finney-Smith — from reading these various reports: the Nets aren’t wanting to take on much future money with the $12M owed to Konchar in 2025-26 and 2026-27 (though Stein reported Nets’ interest in the veteran wing), and Brooklyn didn’t want to add a 5th first-round pick in this year’s draft in what was essentially a pick swap.
However you may think of the Grizzlies’ grade in this non-transaction, they ultimately retained flexibility. If they dealt a 2026 first-round pick, the Stepien rule would’ve prevented them from dealing its 2025 pick until draft night, as well as its 2027 pick as well. And by the way, on a player note, Luke Kennard and John Konchar are two players that can impact winning basketball.
A big question for 2025 in the Grizzlies’ contention quest is how much they are willing to spend in draft capital. Previously reported, the Grizzlies offered all their firsts and swaps for Kevin Durant, three firsts for OG Anunoby, and four for Mikal Bridges. In 2023, they ultimately traded the 25th selection and the Warriors’ 2024 first-round pick for Marcus Smart — Golden State’s asset helped the Celtics get Jrue Holiday from Portland, then the Blazers used it to trade for Deni Avdija.
The Grizzlies have shown the willingness to relinquish capital to chase someone they believe can help them win a championship. After the 2023 trade deadline, Zach Kleiman said they were willing to overpay in draft capital in a pre-consolidation effort, as their roster was crowded long-term. While the cast has changed, the intention may remain the same, as they have the following players on the equivalent of rookie-scale contracts beyond this season:
Zach Edey (through 2027-28)
Vince Williams (through 2026-27)
Jay Huff (through 2027-28)
Scotty Pippen Jr. (through 2027-28)
GG Jackson (through 2026-27)
Jaylen Wells (through 2027-28)
Yes, the NBA can be a revolving door with its roster construction. However, the new CBA almost encourages teams to have a healthy dose of cost-effective depth to avoid harsh tax penalties. The Grizzlies are in a space where they have contention hopes and six players on such deals for the foreseeable future — not including potential two-way conversion candidate, Cam Spencer. Yeah, team options exist within these contracts, but how much room will there be for a draft pick or two a season over the next few years?
Their roster reality presents an opportunity to splurge in draft capital to chase a player that moves the needle. Obviously, forced trade is only a thing in 2K, as it takes two to tango for transactions. Nonetheless, can the Grizzlies get such a deal done? If so, who is the player they cash in for? (That remains to be seen, but will tackle the question at a later date).
Where will the Marcus Smart experience ever really materialize?
The Memphis Grizzlies haven’t fully gotten the Marcus Smart experience due to injury. As a Grizzly, Smart has only played 38 games due to injuries to his ankle and fingers — averaging 11.9 points, 4.1 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.7 steals while shooting 40.9% from the field and 32.1% from 3.
Right now, he’s out with a tear in his finger that’ll leave him out at least two weeks. Obviously, the Grizzlies traded for Smart — in large part — with postseason aspirations on their mind, as he’s one of the most tested players in the league with a Finals appearance and 5 Eastern Conference Finals bids under his belt. Will health allow the Grizzlies to actualize this vision? If so, what will it look like?
The Grizzlies have moved Smart to the bench, as they’ve experienced success with Jaylen Wells in the starting lineup. As the de facto point guard this season, the Grizzlies outscore their opponents by a blistering 37.3 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. However, the goal with Smart as a “backup point guard” would be to stagger him with Morant as well. The two haven’t had much time together over the past two seasons due to injuries and Morant’s suspension, and the results have been murky. This season, the Grizzlies are outscored by 3.3 points per 100 possessions with Morant and Smart on the floor together in 353 possessions.
Obviously, it can improve. However, the Grizzlies have hurdles to clear with the size disadvantage between a Morant-Smart-Bane 1-3, and with the limited floor spacing between the two guards and a big.
Health aside, the Grizzlies seem to find out the returns on the Marcus Smart experience with postseason basketball. And if the vision doesn’t materialize, then what’s next? Next summer, Marcus Smart has an expiring contract worth approximately $21.5M. If the Grizzlies want to add a needle-mover via trade, it may involve Smart’s contract.
2025 will be a big year for the Memphis Grizzlies and the Marcus Smart experience with postseason basketball and a contract year on the horizon.
What does Santi Aldama’s next contract look like, and where is it from?
Santi Aldama has been awesome this season. There’s an argument for him to be the 3rd or 4th-most consistent player on the team. He’s having a legitimate career year, as he’s putting together a case to win Sixth Man of the Year.
The circled marks are where he’s averaging career-best numbers. Only 7 players average at least 13 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists on an effective field goal percentage of 59:
Nikola Jokic
Karl-Anthony Towns
Domantas Sabonis
Josh Hart
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Nikola Vucevic
Santi Aldama
A big question to monitor in 2025 is what will Santi Aldama’s next contract look like. The Grizzlies didn’t extend him before the season, which will make him eligible for restricted free agency. Does a team throw a massive offer sheet to put the Grizzlies in a tough situation? Side note, the Brooklyn Nets can open up anywhere between $55M-70M in cap space next summer; head coach Jordi Fernandez has experience with the Spanish national team. Maybe keep that in your back pocket.
It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Aldama to command a monster contract. He’s only 23 years old. 7-footers with a boatload of skill don’t grow on trees. He can knock down 3’s, attack closeouts, finish at the rim, pass the ball, and operate as a play initiator or finisher. He’s not the best defender, but he’s far from a liability because of his size and fluidity. He’s not necessarily a combo big, but he’s a rare 7-footer that can toggle between the 3 and 4.
A team could be sold on him as their starting 4 of the future.
In the here and now though, Santi Aldama can be an X-factor that can be a huge asset for the Grizzlies in their quest for a championship. While people are skeptical of his playoff impact, I’m bullish. In his first postseason in 2023, he knocked down 46.7% of his 3’s on 2.5 attempts per game. He has big game experience as the Spanish national team’s best player in 2023 FIBA play and in the 2024 Olympics.
Santi Aldama’s emergence has been one of the biggest factors in the Grizzlies’ strong start this season. He’s become a key component to the team’s revamped offense and could be in line for a massive 2025 for the team’s title chances and for his next contract.
Nice opportunity to plug my latest video project:
After a brutal 2024, the Grizzlies have rallied and are poised for a bounce-back year in 2025.
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