Grizzlies: 5 key trends for playoff seeding, outcome
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a slump that has to be broken with playoff seeding implications at stake. What are the trends that will define this stretch and the playoffs?
The Memphis Grizzlies are in a slump. They are 7-9 since the All-Star break, and it seems like they’ve deflated across the board. I would say it couldn’t come at a worse time, but the worst time will be the postseason … which is roughly 3 weeks away. In the meantime, the Grizzlies are in a Western Conference that’s getting tighter by the day.
The Grizzlies are currently 5th in the wild, wild West right now with:
2 games separating them from the Rockets at the 2nd seed
1 game between them and the Nuggets for 3rd
a half game between them and the Lakers for 4th
2 games ahead of the Warriors for 6th
3.5 games ahead of the Clippers for 7th (who they play tonight!)
After the Trail Blazers game, I said on X that the season is salvageable in terms of playoff seeding. Bad time to say it maybe, as you’d think the sky is falling based on reactions. However, while salvagable is a possibility, there has to be real urgency from this team to snap out of this slump before it gets them into dangerous territory.
The Grizzlies have the opportunity to gain ground. Games against these Western Conference foes can swing games for the standings — a road game against a Clippers team that’s given them trouble, home games against new-look Lakers and Warriors squads, and a near-finale road outing in Denver. Just like how they can salvage the situation and find themselves in a good spot after those games in this stretch, things could continue trending in the wrong direction for them — which could lead to the dangerous territory of not having home-court in the first round of the playoffs.
What trends will define the Grizzlies in this stretch run into the postseason?
Turnovers: trending in the right direction?
The turnovers had been an achilles heel for the Grizzlies this season, a bug in its offensive system. However, they’ve slowly turned it around since the All-Star break. They’re currently averaging 14 turnovers per game since the break, tied for 14th in the league — down from 16.6 prior to the season’s intermission.
Hey, possible good news.
It’s no secret turnovers have hindered them this season. When turning the ball over 20 or more times, the Grizzlies are 3-10 — fortunately, it’s only happened once since the break compared to 12 before it. However, in games where they’ve turned the ball over 14 or fewer times, roughly league-average, they’re 19-8. They’ve had 7 such games since the All-Star break where they’ve only turned the ball over 15 or fewer times.
It’s a trend worth monitoring as they face possible playoff woes. It’s been its the biggest crutch, mainly since the consequence of transition scoring opportunities typically follow it. Nonetheless, in the midst of a major slump, it’s nice that they’ve cleaned up a weakness.
3-point shooting: trending down?
Prior to the All-Star break, the Memphis Grizzlies were one of the most high-powered shooting teams in the league, making 37.5 percent of their 3’s (6th in the league). Since the break, it’s had a massive slip, dipping it 33.2%, bad for 28th in the NBA.
Two of the Grizzlies’ prominent 3-point shooters have also slumped in this stretch. Luke Kennard is shooting 32.1% from 3 since the break — he hasn’t had a pre/post All-Star break split before 40% since the 2018-19 season. It’s certainly an outlier slump that should deviate towards the mean. Then, Jaylen Wells has shot 30.2% from 3 since the All-Star break. Is the rookie wall settling in, on top of the nightly responsibilities of defending the opposing team’s best player? After all, he’s played every single games this season.
It’s pretty miraculous that the Grizzlies are still scoring 119.2 points per game even with this shooting slump. However, it’s not sustainable for winning games, especially in this phase of the season. They have to find a spark from downtown. For Wells, is it just letting him power through the rookie wall? For Kennard, is it putting him off the ball more to reduce his playmaking responsibilities and to work his way back into his elite 3-point shooting?
It’s important for them two especially to find their groove from beyond the arc. While the team will go as far as the Big 3 will take them, role players can swing games this time of year, and with their shooting prowess, Wells and Kennard are capable of doing so.
Defensive Rating: trending down
The defense has been a problem quite longer since the All-Star break. Stretching from the start of the new year, the Grizzlies are 22nd in defensive rating, giving up 115.7 points per 100 possessions. You can’t even put in delicately. It won’t fly in the playoffs. The other teams in the bottom-10 are either entrenched in the play-in, injury-riddled, or capturing the Flagg:
So, what’s the issue?
Defense is a bit more layered than covering offense, but the point-of-attack is at the heart of it. The Grizzlies are having trouble staying in front of their man. What happens if a defender gets beat? It scrambles a team into rotation. What happens when a defense has to scramble? Someone’s open. With the Grizzlies’ emphasis on shutting down the paint, it leads to open shooters.
Per Cleaning the Glass, the Grizzlies are 21st in opponent non-corner 3 frequency at 29.3% and 26th in accuracy at 37.1% since the new year. The Grizzlies have typically encouraged teams to shoot high-quadrant 3’s — non-corner 3’s. It’s the furthest, least accurate shot on the basketball floor. In addition, they defend with KYP (knowing your personnel), which is why it seems like players have career shooting nights against them. Sure, there’s shooting luck involved. At some point though, they have to shore up the 3-point line.
The defensive struggles may be on Taylor Jenkins for game-planning and minimizing the risk on these shots, but the players have to be more disciplined — keeping their guys in front of them, and not having the majority of the defenders sell out in the paint.
Winning games against playoff opponents will be an uphill battle if the defense doesn’t tighten up.
Games Played for Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane together: 6 since All-Star break
The story of the Memphis Grizzlies the past several years is how good the trio of Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane are but also how infrequently they’re on the floor together. This season, the trio have had 30 games together, but just 6 since the All-Star break due to injuries from Morant and Jackson.
They’re 18-12 this season when the trio has played this season. In addition, they boast a 11.09 NET rating when they share the floor together this season, per PBP Stats. It’s only been 471 minutes though. For context, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White have played 1051 minutes together this season. Cleveland’s All-Star trio of Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Donovan Mitchell have played 767 minutes together this season.
It’s not a “Taylor Jenkins needs to play his guys more” deal, it’s an injury situation. The Grizzlies haven’t had their trio on the floor much this season, but when they do, they beat their opponents at an elite level — the net rating would be sandwiched between OKC and Cleveland.
The reality of the situation is that the Grizzlies will go as far as the trio will take them. With Ja Morant’s post All-Star break play, Jaren Jackson Jr.’s All-NBA caliber leap, and Desmond Bane’s steadiness as a 20-6-6 guy, they have the ingredients to win a playoff series — and maybe one more.
It will boil down to getting them on the floor at the same time.
Urgency
Okay you can’t quantify urgency, but let’s the quarter splits show something:
1st quarter: -3 NET rating (19th), 110.5 offensive rating (19th), 113.3 defensive rating (19th)
2nd quarter: -15.9 NET rating (29th), 109.2 offensive rating (22nd), 125.1 defensive rating (29th)
3rd quarter: 15.8 NET rating (4th), 129 offensive rating (1st), 113.2 defensive rating (9th)
4th quarter: 2.5 NET rating (14th), 115.5 offensive rating (15th), 113.0 defensive rating (13th)
The Grizzlies have to put together a more complete 48 minutes, and through their performance in the second half of games, the team we’ve seen this season is somewhere. Their slow starts are evident, and urgency has to exist.
I’m not going to say it’s with the players or the coaching with the gameplan. It just has to exist across the board — better starts, discipline defensively, and even late-game substitution patterns. They have to treat these games almost like a dress rehearsal for the playoffs. While you don’t want to exhaust the energy and burn out for the playoffs, the urgency has to see an uptick if the Grizzlies want to make a run going forward.
Let me close with this reminder: it’s salvageable.
While it may seem doom and gloom, and that everything is broken, it doesn’t have to be. The Grizzlies are in an air-tight Western Conference where if they find their groove and snap out of the slump, they can be back at the 2nd seed in the West. At the same time, if the urgency doesn’t pick up and the slump continues, the play-in conversation may get louder — which would be a rather tough scene, given where the Grizzlies have been all season.
This is the perfect time for the Memphis Grizzlies to find their stride: they have a lot of playoff opponents on deck, it’s almost the playoffs, and it’s a stretch where they can show they’re ready for postseason basketball.
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