Grizzlies: 4-quadrant observations 25 games into the season
The Memphis Grizzlies are rolling through its first 25 games. As they return from the NBA Cup break, what observations should be taken from the early-season stretch?
The Memphis Grizzlies are returning to action after a 5-day break due to NBA Cup ball. It’s a nice refreshing break that’s allowed the team to heal, practice, and pick up where they left off.
And where they’re picking up from is very nice.
They entered the break winners in 9 of their past 10 games. They’re also 1st in points per game (122.1), and they’re the only team in the league that’s in the top-5 in Offensive (118.0) and Defensive (108.7) Rating when omitting garbage-time.
As the Grizzlies return from an extensive break, I bring out this four-quadrant style breakdown at the 25-game mark.
Quad 1: Positive/Critique
Quad 2: Positive
Quad 3: Critique
Quad 4: Critique/Positive
Quad 1: Jaylen Wells is thriving, and he should keep the game simple
Jaylen Wells has been a pleasant surprise in this early season, solidifying a starting spot with his 3-and-D skillset.
The 3-point jumper was expected out of Washington State after shooting 41.7% from 3 in his lone season as a Cougar. It’s translated at the NBA level, as he’s shooting 38.3% from 3 on 4.8 attempts per game. He has smooth shooting mechanics and possesses a small memory on misses. A fun observation in his 3-point shooting is his shot-making amidst contact — as it’s even lead to 4-point plays. There isn’t much preventing him from getting his shot off.
Wells’ defense though has been the skill that’s earned him this starting spot. Taylor Jenkins has entrusted Wells with defensive stopping responsibilities, and has really tested the horizons of his capabilities — in terms of opposing talent and archetype. Per the NBA’s matchup data, these are the players he’s had the most “matchup minutes” against.
Wells has thrived in this role, as he ranks in the 98th percentile in the B-Ball Index’s Perimeter Isolation Defense metric (2.06) and in the 96.7th in its Matchup Difficulty metric (1.70). His size is a positive asset defensively, and he’s leveraged it with physicality and attention to detail with his scouting report. Evident specifically through performances against Tyrese Haliburton and Jordan Poole, he’s completely knocked his man off rhythm.
Where Wells should continue to grow in is beyond the simplicity. When putting the ball on the deck, he has some nice moments — especially with his touch, mid-range jumper, and decel step. However, he can be a bit unsure of himself on drives and gets himself in no-man’s lands. Whether it’s this season or beyond, the next step in his development is his skillset off the dribble — making quicker decisions, and having counters when the defense stifles the drive. It’ll make him a more diversified scoring weapon and playmaker.
Nonetheless, 3-and-D wings that are 6’7” and hit 38% of their 3’s are commodities in the NBA. Jaylen Wells has emerged as one of those guys for the Grizzlies this season, and has thrived in his role.
Quad 2: Forget All-Star, Jaren Jackson Jr. deserves All-NBA consideration
Jaren Jackson Jr. is playing at an All-NBA level.
Let’s discuss the numbers first. Per dunksandthrees, he’s one of four players in the NBA with an offensive EPM greater than 1.5 and a defensive EPM greater than 2.0 — joining Victor Wembanyama, Jalen Williams, and Franz Wagner in this cool club. He’s also one of 13 players with a usage rate higher than 25% that’s averaging 20 or more points per game while possessing a true shooting percentage of at least 62 percent:
A class of perennial MVP candidates, unicorn big men, electric scoring guards, and two surprise 2-guards this season.
The intersection of these groups cements Jaren Jackson Jr. as an elite two-way talent — one capable of anchoring a defense, while being an offensive engine.
The key for Jaren Jackson Jr.’s season seems simple, yet vital for the Grizzlies’ championship hopes. He’s merging his offensive excellence with higher usage seen since the start of 2023 calendar year, with his Defensive Player of the Year level impact from 2021-2023. Last year, his defense slipped with higher usage and simply having to do more with a revolving-door cast of players around him.
Jackson amplifies the Grizzlies and whatever pairing he’s on the floor with. He’s a defensive chameleon whose role resembles the STAR one of football — the hybrid of a linebacker and a defensive back. He can anchor the defense and protect the interior as a true big, but on the perimeter, he can roam and assume many responsibilities — shrinking passing and driving lanes, helping over to swat shots into oblivion, and taking on switches.
Jackson’s improvements offensively and this system have led to his most enhanced version. The shooting is still streaky (35% from 3), but he’s trending towards league average. He’s finishing at the rim and in the floater zone at a high level — 71.6% at the rim and 57.5% on floaters, per shotcreator. His ambidextrous style has made him nearly unguardable, especially in the floater zone where he’s improved his touch.
Jaren Jackson Jr. should be an All-Star this season, and he’s trending towards another All-Defensive Team as well. Now, can he crash the All-NBA party? We’ll see, but he should definitely be considered for the invite list, because of his two-way excellence.
This leap as a two-way force bodes well for all parties between the Grizzlies and Jackson. For the Grizzlies to become contenders, they’ve probably needed Jackson to become more of Morant’s 1A/1B, rather than 2 or 3. He is that player now. For Jackson, he could make his pockets richer — as he’d become eligible for an $345.5M five-year extension next summer if he is named on an All-NBA team, or win Defensive Player of the Year or MVP.
Required reading: The Daily Memphian’s Chris Herrington wrote a great article about Jackson’s awards cases at the 25-game mark of the season.
Quad 3: The Grizzlies still need to improve from 3
The Grizzlies are trending in the right direction with their offense.
Note: ratings are rounded to nearest whole number, as Canva doesn’t do decimal numbers.
Their current offensive rating and halfcourt offensive rating are the best in franchise history.
Even with these improvements, there’s another gear to hit with improvements from beyond the arc. They’re currently 17th in 3-point percentage (35.4%) and 13th in 3-point attempts per game (37.4) Multiple components exist in the need for 3-point improvement.
Desmond Bane’s improvements from a volume and accuracy standpoint — more on that shortly, but he’s shooting a career-low in 3-point percentage (32.3%) and firing at the lowest frequency (5.6 attempts per game) since his rookie season.
Luke Kennard also needs to shoot more 3’s, as he’s firing just 6.8 three’s per 36 minutes — the lowest rate of his time in Memphis. His shooting has been vital in 3-point success since arriving to Beale Street. Per pbp stats, the Grizzlies have gone from 33.9% from 3 (the equivalent of the 24th-best shooting team) to 38.6% (equivalent of the 4th-best) with Kennard on the floor. He’s a lynchpin for good shooting, and it’s also his pathway to more consistent minutes.
Jake LaRavia has found a groove from 3 by converting on 39.3% of his 3’s. Can he uptick his volume from 2.5 attempts per game? Santi Aldama and Jaren Jackson Jr. are both streaky shooters, but are trending towards league-average rates. Their shooting successes are pivotal for possessing the most optimal floor-spacing possible.
There’s also the who’s taking 3’s part of the equation. Excluding the two-way’s and Vince Williams, Marcus Smart is second on the team in 3’s attempted per 36 minutes (8.7) while having the fourth-lowest percentage (32.5).
Is it nitpicking? Maybe — after all, any Quad-3 take is nitpicking for a 17-8 team. Their 3-point prowess and building upon these improvements is paramount to the Grizzlies’ championship hopes though.
Since the 2020-21 season, each championship team has been in the top-5 in either 3-point percentage or attempts per game. This isn’t my usual “the Grizzlies need to take more 3’s” take. However, if the Grizzlies get better shooting production from its key perimeter weapons — or seek outside shooting reinforcements at the deadline — it’ll propel their half-court offense and championship hopes.
Quad 4 (Critical/Positive): Desmond Bane’s offense has started slow, but his defense is progressing quite well
A lot has been made of Desmond Bane’s slower start to the season. Is it the adjustment to the pace? Is it just a simple slump? Or is it stemmed from his oblique injury? Probably a combination of the 3, but his return from his oblique injury is a good reference point for the slump.
The lift doesn’t feel the same on his jumper, and he’s not generating the same looks downhill.
Despite the offensive slippage, Bane’s defense has turned up this season. He’s boasting a career-best 1.2 defensive EPM — which falls in the 87th percentile, per dunksandthrees. Opponents are also shooting 4.4 worse than expected with Bane as the nearest defender — 11.8 worse on 2’s. Often remarked, he doesn’t possess the wingspan of most plus defenders. However, he’s an assertive defender that plays with a ton of physicality, which could deter opponents out of their comfort zone.
Bane’s defensive output is why I’m so bullish on his resurgence once he rediscovers his offensive touch. Coupling his usual, expected scoring arsenal and production with strong defense makes him such a potent two-way 2-guard, and will further cement the Grizzlies as a strong contender.
The Memphis Grizzlies still have room to grow with the system and each other, as players are returning from injury. We’ll begin to learn a lot more about this team with this familiarity. From there, it’ll become clear where the Grizzlies stand amongst the Western Conference contenders, and what’s needed to win a championship.
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