Grizzlies: 10 thoughts after jumping up to 3 in NBA Draft Lottery
The Memphis Grizzlies start their rebuild with the 3rd pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. Which directions can they take?
I don’t know about you, but the moment I saw the X notification from Jeremy Woo that the Memphis Grizzlies have moved into the top four was immaculate. The last half of the regular season felt justified, worth it, and relieved.
Then, next notification… No. 4: Chicago Bulls.
Next notification… No. 3: Memphis Grizzlies.
Instantly, people scrambled to claim who their guy is, and why the other options aren’t as good. Guesses were made on who might be available dependent on who the Jazz and Wizards pick. One truth stands out among all the noise:
The Memphis Grizzlies are going to start their rebuild with a cornerstone from the top-4 in this loaded NBA Draft.
The rest of my thoughts on the Grizzlies’ draft lottery with some bonus thoughts on the lottery as a whole.
1) There is no bad outcome…
AJ Dybantsa will likely go 1st or 2nd in the draft. He’s the only player you shouldn’t factor into the Grizzlies’ draft plans. At the end of the day, the Grizzlies will likely end up with two of Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson.
None of those outcomes are bad at all.
The Grizzlies could very well get their Jaren Jackson Jr. replacement with Boozer and Wilson. While both players add value differently — particularly stylistically — they’re both power forwards with All-NBA upside.
With Peterson, he had health issues, but he put together one of the most productive seasons from a freshman guard since 2008. Once fully healthy, he’ll have the opportunity to showcase his full arsenal as a dynamic shooting guard.
Debates will follow, and people will cape for their guy. There shouldn’t be any debate — not because there’s a clear-cut guy over the other, but because there are no bad outcomes for the Grizzlies here.
2) But my preference is Cameron Boozer
If you’ve been a reader for a minute, a follower on social media, or a listener on any of my radio spots around the city, you wouldn’t be shocked to know Cameron Boozer is my preference at 3. Frankly, he’s number 1 on my board for this whole draft class.
He often gets associated with post-ups because of his frame and style of play, but he’s so far from that. He’s the most versatile offensive player in this draft. Yes, he can post up. He can also run the pick-and-roll effectively as the screener and roller. He can orchestrate handoffs as the receiver or the initiator. He can run isolations and off-screens. He also demolishes the offensive glass.
He shot 61.5 percent on two’s, better than any player in the top-4. He finished the season with a 25.6 assist percentage. Stat query courtesy of friend of the platform, Chip Williams, he joins Stephen Curry and Zach Edey in the “30 usage rate and 15 box plus-mins club” — a club he joins as an 18 year old freshman, by the way.1
Yes, he has woes with his athleticism, but it feels overinflated. He still finished the season shooting 60 percent at the rim in the half-court. That’s not a number to scoff at. Despite his athletic woes, he knows how to leverage his strength and angles.
His defense feels spottier. Is he agile enough to defend in space often? He’s not a potent rim protector, but Zach Edey — if healthy — would be right there waiting for drivers. I’m also going to quote former Grizzlies’ executive John Hollinger on his Gasol theory, a reason he used to justify Boozer as his number one prospect:
But let’s get back to that passing, because that to me is the ultimate reason to take him. I have a basic draft theory that I call the Marc Gasol Rule: Bigs who can pass, figure it out. Gasol was thought to be so vulnerable on defense that the Grizzlies drafted Hasheem Thabeet to play next to him. Gasol ended up winning a Defensive Player of the Year trophy. So much of big-man defense is reading what’s happening and figuring out position and angles. That’s why a lot of “feel” bigs like Gasol (or Jokić!) end up being solid-to-good defenders even with meh tools.
Boozer is only 6-9, so he’s operating with a different ceiling, and ultimately, he may play a lot at power forward. But he showed enough mobility that I don’t think he’d be a disaster at that spot defensively, and he’d have massive advantages at the other end if matched up that way.
The level of production at his age, even going back to his pre-NCAA resume, is so undeniable.
3) Boozer/Edey might dominate
The frontcourt pairing with Boozer and Edey can just absolutely rock for a lot of reasons.
For starters, Edey may grow into being a better playmaker in the frontcourt, but he still has a long way to go. Boozer is arguably the best frontcourt playmaker in this draft. The Grizzlies can run some great actions between Boozer and Edey — 4/5 pick-and-rolls, run Boozer off a pindown with Edey rolling to the basket off the screen, Boozer finding Edey in the dunker spot off the short roll, or simply a high-low post entry. Having at least one + (or ++) playmaker is a vital component to constructing a contender in today’s NBA2. The Grizzlies can get one with Boozer.
4) If it’s not Boozer, don’t overthink Peterson
If Boozer is off the board for Memphis, it’ll likely lead to Peterson. People will overthink Peterson with his weird season at Kansas, as they will wrongfully associate whatever happened with attitude and personality issues.
Do not overthink this one. If Peterson is on the board for Memphis, it’s hard to pass up on him.
His rim pressure wasn’t as significant due to the injury, but he’s a legitimate 3-level scorer that can leverage his athleticism and handle to get to the free throw line. He’s a potent three-point shooter, as he made 38.2 percent of his threes on 13.9 attempts per 100 possessions. He’s arguably the most talented off-ball scorer in the entire draft. When he really got rolling with his scoring, it felt like an absolute avalanche.
The main concern with his offense is his playmaking. His assist rate and passing just weren’t as evident. He showed progress in his final season at Prolific Prep. It’s arguably the swing skill, as it can determine whether he can function as a primary guard or a strict 2.
He also generates defensive events at a high level with his length and anticipation, sporting a 2.3 block rate and 2.9 steal rate this season. He did this while operating at not 100 percent, and that should spark optimism for his NBA team.
Peterson and Coward would be one heck of a 2/3 pairing to build around.
5) Caleb Wilson would rock at 3, but he has more questions
Caleb Wilson has crashed the party to make it more of a “top-4” when it comes to assessing the star power of this draft.
He’s an elite athlete with a strong motor, leveraging it to make eye-popping plays on both sides of the ball. He dunks everything, and he can hit shots off his defender in the mid-range. He’s capable of making the simple read. He can encompass different roles — point-of-attack, rim-roamer, help defender, or stints as an anchor. He’s going to be a nightmare to deal with in transition on both sides of the ball.
Everything pops with Wilson.
I do think he comes with more questions.
The shot is the biggest one, as he’s a low-percentage, low-volume shooter. Don’t even account for the fit with Edey, another paint-bound big. It just forms a lower ceiling when it comes to assessing scoring upside.
Defensively, he has the most upside of the top-4 with the potential to make All-Defensive teams. However, he has to keep his engagement level a bit higher defensively.
I’m not as worried about the defense. However, the jumper doesn’t create a confident outcome of him being a number one option, which is what the Grizzlies could be getting with Boozer or Peterson.
Nonetheless, Wilson will still be an awesome pick that adds a jolt to this team with his athleticism and motor.
6) Jerome/Coward/3/Edey has a good infrastructure for being a surprise play-in team
The Memphis Grizzlies have the infrastructure to be a play-in team. Why not?
If the Grizzlies end up with Boozer or Wilson, the opposing team may never get a rebound with one of them on the floor with Cedric Coward and Zach Edey. Ty Jerome was one of the most efficient offensive players in the league this past season, although in a very small sample — there’s still sufficient evidence of positive offensive outcomes.
Coward and Edey are vital components to a strong defensive infrastructure. Coward can also encompass different defensive roles because of his wingspan, but I’d like to see him rev up the stocks. Edey was a force defensively, as the Grizzlies held their opponents to 96.9 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor in his 11 games. Jerome can generate steals, but he has problems with his force on the ball. Jaylen Wells has graded out as one of the most productive on-ball perimeter defenders over the past two seasons.
They still have good depth pieces with Santi Aldama, GG Jackson, Cam Spencer, Scotty Pippen Jr., Taylor Hendricks, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper. More roster changes can make their depth look totally different.
As we’ve seen with the Grizzlies over the 2020s, health will be the biggest factor this season. The incentive to tank goes down with a potential lottery reform. Zach Kleiman has already said he doesn’t want a long rebuild. Don’t be surprised if this Grizzlies team is better than expected next season, especially with the 3rd pick in the fold.
7) The guard spot doesn’t feel necessary
If the Grizzlies fell within its pre-lottery range of 6-8, a guard felt inevitable. The Ja Morant situation didn’t do anything to shake this notion.
The guard spot doesn’t feel as necessary, to be honest. Don’t get me wrong. If Zach Kleiman looks at who’s available at 16 — or wherever they trade up to — and sees a guard who’s available at the top of their board, then a guard will be picked.
I just don’t see the need for one. They could potentially look to trade up to chase any of these guards that fall — Keaton Wagler, Kingston Flemings, or Mikel Brown Jr.3
There’s already a crowded guard room — Jerome, Pippen, Spencer, Walter Clayton Jr., and Javon Small. They obviously shouldn’t pass on a guard because of their current situation, especially at the beginning of their rebuild. However, the urgency for another guard shouldn’t be heightened. If they want a starting guard of the future, they can find one down the road — whether it’s future drafts or trades.
If the Grizzlies roll with a guard, Labaron Philon and Bennett Stirtz are where I’m leaning.
8) Guys I like at 16
With that said, the Grizzlies have a chance to add more athleticism and physicality at this juncture of the draft. Here’s the skinny on players I like:
Dailyn Swain, wing, Texas: big wing with creation upside… amazing driver… shaky, but improving shot… when engaged, he’s a chaos agent defensively.
Morez Johnson, big, Michigan: a backup 5 that can play either with the 3rd pick or Edey… awesome play-finisher … incredibly versatile defender … needs to show more of his perimeter skillset.
Karim Lopez, forward, NBL: strong defensive upside but needs his awareness to catch up… likes to bully his way to the basket… has worked on his body to pop athletically… the shot is inconsistent.
Allen Graves, big, Santa Clara: high-feel on both sides of the ball… incredible nose for the ball… doesn’t turn it over… can shoot … ultra physical but his athleticism is underwhelming.
Amari Allen, wing, Alabama: measurements may make him more of a 2/3… high feel playmaker that can be a real secondary… better shooter than numbers indicate… real handle but has to improve as a finisher… can create defensive events and rebound but unsure if he can cover at point-of-attack.
Tounde Yessoufou, wing, Baylor: upside swing… raw offensively with his jumper, handle, and shot selection… freight train in transition… adds value on the glass… insane physicality and athleticism on the wing.
9) Trade-up options
This will probably be a separate article, but keep an eye on the Grizzlies using the 16th pick and their $28.8M traded player exception to initiate a salary dump to move up in the draft.
Teams to watch: Sacramento (7), Milwaukee (10), Miami (13).
Players to potentially trade up for: Kingston Flemings, Brayden Burries, Mikel Brown Jr., Yaxel Lendeborg, Dailyn Swain.
10) This is the setup is fantastic for a rebuild
The Memphis Grizzlies walked into the lottery with Cedric Coward and Zach Edey as staple pieces for the next era. They now have the 3rd pick with the opportunity to add Cameron Boozer, Darryn Peterson, and Caleb Wilson to the fold. With starting a rebuild, this is one heck of a trio to roll with.3
Their strengths complement a number one option so well. Coward is a malleable wing who can help teams win games with his scoring attack one night, and with his hustle stats the other night. Edey has incredible two-way influence on the paint and flashed real All-Defensive Team, All-Star upside in his short stint as a sophomore.
Now, they’re getting a blue-chip prospect with them.
And around the core? They have a slew of good role players from veteran floor-raisers (Jerome, Aldama), point-of-attack defenders (Wells, Pippen), athletic forwards (Jackson, Prosper, Hendricks), and guards with shooting equity (Spencer and Small).
The Grizzlies will also have 11 first-round picks to accompany a core of Edey, Coward, and a top-3 pick. It gives them insane optionality down the road. Trade up for their guys. Bites at the apple for talent in the draft. Push in some chips to trade for a guy that complements its core.
Their incumbent talent and asset pool set the Grizzlies up for their rebuild regardless. However, adding a top-three pick to the fold this early into the process amplifies their collection even more. It’s going to be exciting to see the direction the Grizzlies ultimately make — with the pick and all the moves to follow.
Quick lottery notes
Going to rapid-fire with the other teams in the lottery.
Washington is suddenly in an unbelievable spot with the number one pick, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Kyshawn George, and Alex Sarr — among other young players. They should be entertaining in their first season back into competitiveness.
Darryn Peterson is the perfect prospect for the Jazz, providing them with a future number one option. The Jazz coincidentally need a 2 to fit in a lineup with Jaren Jackson Jr., Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, and Keyonte George.
I love that the Chicago Bulls jumped into the lottery, as their new GM Bryson Graham has the 4th pick, 15th pick, and oodles of cap space to work with in their first offense. With players like Matas Buzelis, Josh Giddey, and Noa Essengue on their roster, their direction intrigues me.
The Pacers’ gamble didn’t pay off, but they still get an All-NBA caliber center in Zubac. The Clippers are a prime trade-down team, as they need assets and teams will be calling about Darius Acuff and Keaton Wagler.
I feel so bad for Brooklyn fans, who fully leaned into a rebuild and fell in back-to-back seasons. Their direction is intriguing.
Darius Acuff, Sacramento King, feels written in the stars.
The Hawks should 100% add Aday Mara, as his rim influence and playmaking would pop in that system.
The Mavericks are going to be a fascinating team, as they look to add the 9th and 30th picks next to Cooper Flagg. Can’t wait to see what Mike Schmitz does in his first draft as an NBA General Manager.
The Bucks and Nate Ament feel destined for this spot, given the connections with Jimmy Haslem (who has a stake in the Bucks) and Tennessee.
Yaxel Lendeborg feels like the Draymond Green successor with his two-way playmaking, perimeter defense, and versatility.
The Thunder have the 12th and 17th picks, as the board for them will be another case of the rich getting richer.
The Heat are a wild card here at 13, as they’re always in star-hunting mode. If not, I’m curious which direction they go — usually showing no in-between for productive college veterans and upside swings.
Charlotte needs to add a bit more physicality this offseason, and 14 feels like an ideal spot for Hannes Steinbach or Morez Johnson.
Other programming notes
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Boozer and Edey could be the Grizzlies’ frontcourt!
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Permanent footnote for if healthy for Edey