9 thoughts on the 9th pick

With the Memphis Grizzlies' lottery slate sealed, what lies ahead in their quest to return to contention status -- despite the ping pong balls bouncing the worst way?

The Memphis Grizzlies didn’t get lucky in Sunday’s NBA Draft Lottery. After possessing the 7th-best odds for the #1 pick and to land in the top-4, the Grizzlies fell down 2 spots to 9th — as the Atlanta Hawks and the Houston Rockets (via the Brooklyn Nets) leaped past them to secure top-4 selections.

All’s not totally lost for the Grizzlies to maximize this asset — whether it’s via trade, or a desired target falling down the board. The variance in this draft indicates such, as arguably 8-10 prospects have a case to go as high as 2.

The mock drafts are proof of the concept:

• ESPN: Stephon Castle

• The Athletic: Ron Holland

• Yahoo Sports: Reed Sheppard

• Bleacher Report: Ron Holland

• NBA Big Board: Donovan Clingan

• No Ceilings: Cody Williams

• CBS Sports: Donovan Clingan

• The Ringer Ron Holland

• Game Theory Podcast (Sam Vecenie and Bryce Simon): Donovan Clingan

• SB Nation: Reed Sheppard

So now that the Grizzlies are locked in at 9, what are some things to take into account?

9 thoughts

1. Two divisional foes jumped into the top-4: the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. Houston could package this pick in their quest to rise up in the Western Conference, joining a flood of teams vying for playoff positioning next year. San Antonio now holds the 4th and 8th picks, after Toronto conveyed their pick, to shore up perimeter depth — or to trade for an All-Star guard. While it may be the “ideal” class for rivals to jump up, the avenue for upgrades could bolster the conference.

2. Despite the variance in this draft, it’s evident the 9th pick likely leaves several targets off the board, even at this stage. Alex Sarr will likely go 1 or 2. Upside big wings Zaccharie Risacher and Matas Buzelis probably have a floor at 7. San Antonio’s need for a point guard likely means Nikola Topic and Rob Dillingham will go no lower than 8.

3. Everyone’s immediate thought at 9 revolved around Donovan Clingan — a massive center that fills the gaps the Grizzlies have missed with Steven Adams. His stock has skyrocketed since March, but the likelihood he falls to Memphis isn’t a 0. The teams ahead of Memphis have youthful center depth, or bigger needs on the wing. So, I don’t want to discount Clingan falling to 9 — though the Grizzlies may need to trade up to get him (9 + 39 for 6 to Charlotte seems like a good deal). Smaller note, can we see some agency pull here — as the Grizzlies offer a clearer path for Clingan to start or play a larger role quicker than other destinations?

4. If not Clingan, then who? Ron Holland fits the “BPA” type — he’s talented, but raw. I’m not sure he can contribute immediately. If the Grizzlies are looking for guys that can be impactful from day 1, Stephon Castle and Reed Sheppard have a clear path to do so.

5. If they go for a combo guard, it creates questions over a backcourt getting crowded and expensive. Could Castle or Sheppard signal the Grizzlies are moving on from Luke Kennard with his team option? I’m not sure. The Grizzlies value him, but people will monitor if the draft pick will be a domino towards making the tough decision.

6. With falling to 9, I have to ask — if not those guys, then who? Dalton Knecht is the best answer, as he helps shore up their outside shooting while also providing value when run off the 3-point line too. He’d shore up a need with outside shooting, and could make the Kennard decision easier. Knecht is also a sleeper in this draft. Detroit and San Antonio at 5 and 8 strike me as landing spots, as they need shooting and have slight pressure to start building towards winning next year. If Knecht rises up the board, he could push an unlikely target closer to Memphis’ range.

7. As the Grizzlies sit closer to the luxury tax, the 9th pick saved them a couple million dollars. The 9th pick, based off Taylor Hendricks’ salary last year (the 2023 9th pick) would have the Grizzlies about $2.97M away from 1st apron, as it’s around $5.6M — though the number could shrink due to bringing in the 39th pick on a standard contract, or any other free agency signings. Nonetheless, it gives them a wee bit more flexibility to work to re-tool the roster.

8. Questions will revolve around whether or not the Grizzlies stay at 9. They could move down in the draft and try to trade salaries of players not projected for the rotation (Ziaire Williams or John Konchar) for a win-now player, while bringing in a rookie later in the draft. Yves Missi, Kyle Filipowski, DaRon Holmes, Tristan Da Silva, or Jaylon Tyson would be good targets. Grizzlies followers also have an affinity for Zach Edey, which makes sense in theory as a gigantic center. I wouldn’t rule out trading up. Could Charlotte trade down 3 spots to 9 and also acquire the 39th pick? It’d give them 3 picks in the top-40, something their new front office may like. Could Portland do the same thing — something like 7, 39, and 56 for the 7 and 40? Don’t rule out the Grizzlies moving in either direction around the board.

9. Could the Grizzlies trade out of the draft completely? It’s tough to gauge, but Zach Kleiman says anything is on the table. The players to identify are up in the air. We won’t found out more until more teams are eliminated from the playoffs, and intel on potential offseason moves starts to come out. Jarrett Allen would be awesome, but Cleveland may not want to trade him. Wendell Carter Jr.’s injury history leaves me skeptical of trading a top-10 pick, but the Grizzlies could swap 9 with salary to get Carter and 18. Maybe the Grizzlies could give Washington an offer for Deni Advija, as Washington is seeking another 2024 1st-round pick. It's possible the Grizzlies trade out, though we won’t know the realistic options at this stage of the offseason.

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Could variance play in the Grizzlies’ favor?

This draft is going to be all over the place. Boards will reflect so many different outcomes that it’s hard to pinpoint the most likely outcome.

The Athletic’s Josh Robbins reported that the Wizards are considering 9 prospects with their 2nd pick: Alex Sarr, Zaccharie Risacher, Nikola Topic, Donovan Clingan, Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, Matas Buzelis, Stephon Castle, and Dalton Knecht.

So. Many. possibilities.

Now the question will be revolve around the Grizzlies being able to strike on this level of variance. Could they nab Donovan Clingan after all, with no team having a clear need for center ahead of them? Do Reed Sheppard or Stephon Castle fall? Is there an opportunity for an upside swing like Ron Holland or Cody Williams? Or is a sure-fire shooter like Dalton Knecht available for the taking? Do they shock everyone and take a player no one was expecting?

Or, they could simply move on from this pick and go get a win-now player.

Lots of rumors and intel will swirl over the next 6 weeks, leading up to one of the most unpredictable drafts of the last decade.

The ultimate question though is, how Grizzlies can use this pick to bolster their bounce-back towards contention.

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