5 ripple effects from Ja Morant's suspension
The Memphis Grizzlies have several ways they can stay afloat in Ja Morant's 25 game suspension
The verdict is finally out there: the NBA has suspended Ja Morant for 25 games, with other unstated action items as a part of a league program.
Now begs the questions - what’s next?
What’s next for Ja Morant — how he responds going forward?
What’s next for the Memphis Grizzlies — their offseason plans, the expanded roles out the gate for the players, and more?
This isn’t totally unfamiliar territory for the Grizzlies, as Morant has missed 21 games last season and 25 in the 2021-22 season. They navigate missed time from key players with the “next man up” mentality. It will still be a hole to start the season; the margins are much slimmer with this lengthy suspension.
However, there are some ripple effects from this suspension to monitor, as it could lay groundwork for the Grizzlies’ 2023-24 campaign.
Offseason moves
The big question people will have in the immediate future is how the 25-game suspension will impact their offseason moves. At the forefront of those discussions is Tyus Jones. ‘Stones’ is the Grizzlies’ most sensible trade target. He’s on a sizable contract ($14M next season) that comes off the books next offseason. He holds value as a high-end backup point guard with the game to start — averaged 16.4 points, 8.1 assists (1.5 turnovers), 4.0 rebounds on 50/41.5/77.8 shooting splits.
With his value, and with the teams with a surplus of wings having a hole at the point guard position, Jones makes the most sense as a trade piece to get a starting small forward.
However, the suspension begs the question if the Grizzlies should even consider moving Jones.
The Grizzlies will do whatever they need to do when it comes to bolstering this team. Zach Kleiman has expressed to the media multiple times that he won’t make a move just for the sake of it, but he will make one that he feels best positions the team for playoff basketball.
If they feel like they could acquire a difference-maker for this team at the expense of Tyus Jones, they will do it. Their goal should be to bolster this team for basketball in the spring/summer rather than the fall. If they trade Jones, they should acquire a veteran combo guard (Delon Wright? Alec Burks? Alex Caruso?) to help Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard run the offense in Morant’s absence. Maybe they could target a combo guard to get ready for rotation minutes by year 2 (Brandin Podziemski? Colby Jones? Nick Smith Jr.?).
At the same time, if the right offer isn’t on the table, it won’t be a bad move to hold on to Tyus Jones. He’s been a reliable table-setter for this team as a starting point guard, so he could very well continue to do so for the first 25 games of the season. If the Grizzlies feel inclined to do so, they could look at trades again around the deadline.
Regardless, the Grizzlies face a big offseason where upgrades and reinforcements are needed. We’re about to see the Grizzlies’ philosophy of “not making a move just to be splashy” put to the test, and it starts with their decision on Tyus Jones.
Desmond Bane has the keys
Tyus Jones or a combo guard may be the “point guard” by positional definition, but Desmond Bane has the keys to the offense for the first 25 games of the season.
Last year, Desmond Bane made strides in his overall game. He improved as an interior scorer, earning the new moniker of “Downhill Des” for how well he gets to the paint. He grew as a playmaker, averaging 4.1 assists last season and making legitimately great reads within the flow of the offense.
After the All-Star break, he started to play more like he did prior to his toe injury — averaging 21.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.7 assists with 50.0/37.7/84.7 shooting splits. Though his 3-point percentage slipped, he also scored on 59.1% of his 2’s.
With his offseason toe surgery, there’s hope he could take another leap, one resembling his 25-5-5 run at the start of last season. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities because of his growth as a live-dribble creator, but also because he wasn’t at his standard shooting the 3-ball to end th eseason. His outside jumper in the playoffs was rather uncharacteristic, a possible product of tired legs and limited lift from his toe injury. A progression to the mean from 3, along with the dividends from his improved off-the-dribble game, could help the Grizzlies stay afloat — and give Desmond Bane a runway for his first All-Star season.
Really tap into the Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard lineups
The duo of Desmond Bane and Luke Kennard quickly became a lethal option for the Grizzlies last season. The extra spacing alongside Ja Morant or Tyus Jones opens the floor immensely, allowing the Grizzlies to buzzsaw opponents offensively. However, their production together as the 2 guards in the lineup is so tantalizing.
Last season, the Grizzlies outscored opponents by 14.6 points per 100 possessions with Bane and Kennard on the floor — as they ripped an offensive rating of 123.2 offensive rating on an effective field goal percentage of 59.8, per Cleaning the Glass.
While they shouldn’t be the starting 1/2 combo through Ja’s 25-game suspension — as the “point guard” should be Jones or a veteran combo guard — the duo of Bane/Kennard, in this case as the 1-2, needs to be released more often.
Bane’s playmaking has grown to the point where he can initiate the offense within staggered lineups. Kennard isn’t on the same caliber of playmaker, but he’s capable of making the right reads within the flow of the offense as a side-action initiator.
Possessing two lethal shooters with the ability to put the ball on the floor generates some real gravity. Together, they can leverage their outside shooting and their passing to shift the defense to create looks for one another and their teammates.
Even when Morant is back, this duo is one to watch together. More minutes together as the initiators will only help them find their rhythm as both shooters and live-dribble creators, in hopes to fuel their halfcourt offense and create advantages.
Lean “3 and D”
The Memphis Grizzlies are losing one of the best offensive engines in the league for the first 25 games. Ja Morant isn’t a talent that can be replicate. It has to be done in the aggregated.
There are two areas that could keep them afloat: 3-point shooting and defense.
Starting on the offensive end, I have a take that older basketball followers may not enjoy: the Grizzlies should try to shoot 40 three’s per game. With the talents of Desmond Bane, Luke Kennard, and Jaren Jackson Jr. — as well as a more efficient shooter at the starting 3 spot — it’s an attainable benchmark. It’s also been a successful formula for the Grizzlies as well. Last season, the Grizzlies were 9-4 when they fired 40 or more 3’s in 13 games — scoring 120 points per game on 47.6% shooting from the field, while connecting on 40% of their 3’s (44 attempts per game).
If Bane and Kennard are each shooting 7 three’s per game, while Jackson and a starting 3 are getting up roughly 5 a game, that’s a great foundation for strong shooting. That’s not mentioning other contributions across the board from players like Santi Aldama, David Roddy, or Jake LaRavia. In the process, they could create a successful formula going forward.
Placing an emphasis on the 3-ball in Morant’s absence makes them more lethal when Ja returns. Defenses will enter a “pick your poison” scenario that’ll open up the floor for Morant’s downhill attack. And when the defense collapses on his drives, he has at least 3 players on the perimeter ready to let it fly.
Secondly, the Grizzlies can also make up for losing their offensive supernova by leveling up the defense. The Grizzlies have been a top-10 defense over the past 3 years, and they were 3rd in defensive rating (110.7) last season. Jaren Jackson Jr. — the reigning Defensive Player of the Year — should help hold the fort down. Factoring him within a combination of Steven Adams, Xavier Tillman, and Santi Aldama solidifies their paint defense — where they demonstrated elite rim protection metrics last season.
Their perimeter defense is shaky right now with Dillon Brooks on his way out. They need a leap from David Roddy, someone they trusted to mirror Dillon Brooks’ assignments after substitutions. With his physical tools (6’11” wingspan, big body), he has potential to be a good defensive stopper. An emergence from Ziaire Williams would help too, as he’s a 6’11” wing with the ability to guard positions 1-3 with his quick feet and screen navigation.
Ideally, any player they acquire this offseason needs to be a positive perimeter defender. Any starting 3 should be a 3-and-D player that could take the role as the team’s defensive stopper. If they need to make a move for a combo guard, defending positions 1-3 should be within their arsenal.
Re-establishing their defensive fortitude after losing an All-Defense perimeter stopper will help them stay afloat within Ja’s suspension, and find a groove once he returns.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is the go-to
This 25-game stretch is going to be massive for Jaren Jackson Jr., especially as he’s getting a healthy offseason under his belt.
Jackson flashed immense upside towards the end of the 2022-23 campaign as a result of being featured more. His field goal attempts per game increased from 12.1 to 14.8, as he maintained his efficiency (roughly 51-35-80) with a larger offensive role. Jackson’s performance in Game 1 was cinematic, as he was bullying the Lakers in the low post.
While Jackson flashed dominance towards the end of last season, the key is to sustain it. From this moment forward, the Grizzlies need to establish him as a focal point of the offense.
Jaren Jackson Jr. is the biggest mismatch on the roster, a versatile big man with a diverse offensive package to attack defenses. When he has someone smaller on him, he’s a post threat with improved touch and footwork. When he has someone slower on him, he has the live-dribble game to take defenders off the bounce to the hoop. He can space the floor within the flow of the offense as well — and they should even be creative by having Jackson run off flare screens and pin-downs.
Jackson is dominant, yet malleable. While he can fit and contribute within the construct of the offense, the Grizzlies need to establish Jackson as the featured weapon of the offense within the first 25 games. Leveraging his versatile skillset and the mismatches stemmed from it make the Grizzlies’ offense more unpredictable in the halfcourt offense — which could lead to multiple attacking points within the system.
This call also comes with improvements. Jackson needs to find his footing as a driver, as it can be wonky to the point where defenses can predict his path and set a charge once he barrels into them. A key component to his partnership with Morant and Bane, the pick-and-roll game leaves little to be desired, as Trip isn’t a great screen-setter. Improving as the screener in the pick-and-roll opens up avenues for Jackson to utilize his outside shooting on the pop, or to find easy shooting opportunities off the roll.
More importantly, establishing Jaren Jackson Jr. as the featured option and fully utilizing his skillset can help the visions and upside of the duo of Jackson and Morant to elevate from “materializing” to “fulfilled.” Jackson and Morant’s skillsets can become maximized alongside each other, leaning on the strengths of the other to dissect the defense. This time could help Jackson become the 1B to Morant’s 1A — while evolving into the dominant player he showed more flashes of this past season.
The 25 games without Ja Morant is going to be tough, but manageable. It’s going to be a challenging time for all parties involved. The front office has an offseason of moves to make to bolster this team’s chances of winning a championship, while the suspension lingers within the plans. The players have elevated roles to start the season, while the coaching staff has to identify how to replace their superstar point guard in the aggregate for the 1st quarter of the season.
It’s all doable. The ripple effects underway over the next 6 months could lay the foundation for how the 2023-24 season could shake out for the Memphis Grizzlies.
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