4 things to watch for in 2024 offseason
The Memphis Grizzlies are due for a massive summer with a prized asset, a glaring need, financial implications, and tough roster decisions.
The Memphis Grizzlies are entering another pivotal offseason. I’m purposely avoiding saying it’s the biggest one, because I’ve said it in recent years, and I can’t overuse it. So let’s just leave it at “another pivotal” offseason.
This offseason is a bit different from last summer. After a tornado of injuries, the Grizzlies are watching the playoffs from home, awaiting for the May 12th lottery for clarity of their pick and direction. They have a clear positional need into the offseason, as Zach Kleiman made it abundantly clear they’re getting a big man. Where he’s finding one? No stone will be left unturned — the draft, trade, and free agency are all possibilities.
On top of that, the Grizzlies are facing the luxury tax for the first time since 2005, per Spotrac. With the luxury tax punishments, particularly with the 2nd apron, it’ll be fascinating to see how the Grizzlies operate in regard to roster upgrades.
The health of the Big 3 will be the most important factor in their championship quest, but this offseason presents an opportunity to re-bolster the roster.
The center position
Let’s get the biggest need for the Grizzlies, no pun intended. There are truly a plethora of options, starting with the draft pick.
Alex Sarr and Donovan Clingan stand among the top of the board for potential big options through the draft. They can also trade the pick for veteran center help. Jarrett Allen seems like a good trade-out target, and guys like Wendell Carter Jr., Walker Kessler, and Onyeka Okongwu seem like solid players to acquire in a trade-down. Personally, I’m keeping an eye on Wendell Carter Jr.’s playoff experience. His role and production have shrunk, and they already have Mo Wagner, Jon Isaac, and potentially Goga Bitadze. Can the Grizzlies buy low with salary, the 39th pick, and additional 2nd-round picks?
Free agency will be hard to gauge, because of their financial situation. Fans are enamored with doing a sign-and-trade for Nic Claxton or Isaiah Hartenstein, with little regard for potential interest in the player or incumbent team to remain in the same situation. Sign-and-trade’s are tricky, given the money-matching mechanism.
On a lighter scale, veterans like Mason Plumlee or Andre Drummond could be decent in a pinch. Younger guys like Goga Bitadze or Jalen Smith could be interesting buy-low candidates this summer.
It all hinges on their utilization of Jaren Jackson Jr. He can play either the 4 or the 5 alongside the right fits. If they want to revert back to where Jackson is starting as the 4 but closing as the 5, they might identify a draft pick or mid-level signing via sign-and-trade — or even trading the pick in a larger scale. If not, they might find a regular season innings eater to just be a big body that absorbs minutes.
One way or another, the Grizzlies will bring a big man into the fold next season.
Luke Kennard’s team option
The Grizzlies have 1 real free agency decision from its roster this summer, and it’s Luke Kennard’s $14.8M team option to decide on by June 28th. It could also be the catalyst for their offseason plans.
Kennard is a fascinating player within the Grizzlies’ plan. He’s the backup shooting guard for a team that’s had 2 young wings emerge into the team’s plans. On the other hand, Kennard is one of the NBA’s best 3-point shooters for a team that’s 29th in the league in 3-point accuracy.
3-point shooting is driving factor in making the postseason:
Kennard is an elite shooter:
I’m under the assumption the Grizzlies need to have a quantity of quality shooters. Money is tight though. Ideally, Kennard comes back on a re-negotiated deal. Can both parties get to a 2-year, $23M deal? I don’t know.
If Kennard is a trade piece to grab another player, the Grizzlies need to have a plan to offset the shooting loss. Kennard has provided scorching shooting, while moving the ball well. He’s a boost to the team’s halfcourt offense in a healthier context.
While money management leads to tough decisions, letting Kennard walk without addressing the need for shooting seems dicey.
How the Grizzlies address its money situation?
Luke Kennard isn’t the only way the Grizzlies can address their luxury tax situation. The Grizzlies have a chunk of change tied to the back-end of the roster.
Yuta Watanabe opting out of his player option opens up a roster spot, but ultimately the player coming in will make equivalent money. Jake LaRavia on the 3rd year of his rookie deal and Derrick Rose on his veteran’s minimum contract are good deals for their roles.
John Konchar and Ziaire Williams are each getting a pay raise, going from making $6M combined to $6M each. It’s not infeasible to see either player on the roster next season, because they can easily step in as the “next man up.” It’s tough to envision both players being on the roster, given the money commitment and where they are in the pecking order among the wings.
The Grizzlies likely won’t ship them to a team with cap space, as the front office rarely sells off players with assets attached to them. However, can either one of them be in a deal to add more balance to the roster? For example, Nick Richards would be a decent emergency big man, and he also shaves off $1M off the books in salaries. Isaiah Jackson or Day’Ron Sharpe fit the criteria as well.
The Grizzlies can also utilize a 2-for-1 deal to open up a roster spot, while even absorbing the player in the $12M trade exception from the trade deadline. (See: Wendell Carter point above)
Not necessarily most glaring, but Santi Aldama is extension-eligible. He could have a case — as players with his level of dribble-pass-shoot skill at his size are commodities in today’s NBA. It’s tough to gauge, since the Grizzlies already have money tied in a backup big man, and GG Jackson has emerged as a combo forward. They don’t have to make a move on Aldama for next season and beyond (yet), but he’s going to be a player to watch for this summer.
The Grizzlies have directions. They even have more 2nd round picks at their disposal to bolster the roster, as long as it keeps the books away from the 2nd apron.
Nonetheless, the Grizzlies are in a spot where they need to tweak the roster to reload for a bounce-back season. It’s going to involve a bunch of money decisions, and it doesn’t just pertain to its lone pending team option.
The draft
We’ll dive into the draft more intently — direction, prospect profiles, and all — after the draft lottery when there’s a verdict on its pick number.
Obviously, if the pick goes 1st, Alex Sarr is the go-to in my opinion. If the Grizzlies get 2nd or below (lowest they can go is 9), 9 potential names are in the mix:
Sarr
Nikola Topic
Stephon Castle
Matas Buzelis
Ron Holland
Donovan Clingan
Reed Sheppard
Cody Williams
Zacchaire Risacher
Rob Dillingham
Each of these players have their own concerns, some more than others. Likewise, each player will be solid additions in varying degrees — from impact and pick spot.
The Grizzlies can even use the pick to trade out of, or down, the draft in order to acquire a legitimate rotation player that fits Morant, Bane, and Jackson’s timeline better. Though the more people refer to this class as a “weak draft,” the more it devalues the pick — thus making it more difficult to acquire a legitimate difference-maker with this asset.
The Grizzlies are truly a wild card for the offseason because of their situation — a playoff contender derailed by injuries, while facing the luxury taxes and possessing a prime asset with a lottery pick. However, the magnitude of the Grizzlies’ offseason and the ripple effects with the aforementioned summer elements won’t be determined until we know where they’re picking on June 26th.
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