4 questions for the 2024-25 college basketball season, and how it could impact the 2025 NBA Draft

With a hyped draft coming up, what are the biggest questions for the college basketball season, and how could it impact the 2025 NBA Draft?

College basketball is starting up with exhibition games into high-profile tournaments. With a loaded draft class on the way, I examine four questions around four teams, and how it could have a domino effect with the 2025 NBA Draft.

1) Does Duke’s depth help or hurt the draft stock of potential prospects?

This year’s Duke basketball team is absolutely loaded — perhaps the deepest team 1-10 in the country. Scouts and analysts will have their eyes on Duke because of Cooper Flagg. Will there be more breakout prospects? It’ll likely depend on Scheyer’s approach this season, as he possesses a blend of college veterans and highly-touted freshman prospects. Khaman Maluach has garnered the most attention of any of the non-Flagg prospects, but his feel has to improve. Will Scheyer be forced to roll with Stanley Borden if Maluach isn’t up to speed? Kon Knueppel and Darren Harris project as bigger combo wings with smooth shooting touch and a diverse scoring arsenal, but they’ll be competing for minutes with upperclassmen Sion James and Mason Gillis. Isaiah Evans is a talented scoring wing, but may not be physically ready for big minutes this year. Duke also has veteran guards in Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster, and facilitating for a loader roster could help their draft prospects. Duke is a stacked team, and there’s a minutes battle for everybody except for Flagg, so it’ll be interesting to monitor the stock of its secondary draft prospects.

2) Who’s Arkansas’ first Calipari guard?

You know the saying: never bet against Calipari Guards. Derrick Rose, Tyreke Evans, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Devin Booker, Tyrese Maxey, De’Aaron Fox, and many more. Calipari has a new home, and “Guard University” will be hopefully be following him. DJ Wagner came over from Kentucky, Johnell Davis arrived from the portal, and Boogie Fland is looking to be the next “one-and-done” star guard. How soon will the success from the guard pipeline from Kentucky carry over? If it’s this season, it’s likely the guard will follow a similar path to Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham as breakout prospects this cycle. Fland is the guy to watch for this trend — though undersized, he possesses a dazzling skillset with his shot-creation and playmaking.

3) How does Kevin Young taking over at BYU elevate the program?

For the past half-decade, I’ve wanted college programs to target prominent NBA assistant coaches in efforts to modernize the college basketball system — one that slows things down, and lacks proper spacing. Kevin Young arrives to BYU after leaving a 7-figure job in Phoenix. Could his pedigree pay dividends for success as a contender and as a system that develops pros? From a prospect standpoint, watch for Egor Demin and Kanon Catchings. Demin is a point forward with potential as a 3-level playmaker, and Catchings fits the vision of the modern 3-and-D wing with a 6’9” frame — as he shot 40.8% from 3 on 130 attempts across 29 games for Overtime Elite last season. On-court production aside, everyone will be watching on their recruitment of AJ Dybansta, the top-ranked prospect in the class of 2025.

4) Can Dan Hurley, UConn achieve a three-peat — for a championship and with lottery prospects?

A three-peat seems unprecedented in college basketball, given the parity a single-elimination tournament creates. The ultra-intense Dan Hurley will be looking to grab the challenge by the horns. There will be a lot of turnover, as four starters from his national championship team are off to the pro’s — Donovan Clingan, Stephon Castle, Cam Spencer, and Tristan Newton. However, they return a blend of role players assuming larger responsibilities (Alex Karaban, Samson Johnson, Hassan Diarra, and Jaylin Stewart) and transfer veterans (Aidan Mahaney and Tarris Reed), so they should remain contenders to win the national championship. If UConn can’t complete the three-peat, Hurley can still go three years in a row with a prospect drafted in the lottery. Liam McNeeley is the headline prospect at UConn. He fits the Hurley archetype to a T with his fiery competitiveness and with his two-way feel as a playmaker, shooter, off-ball mover, and defender.

4-Quad Takes

A new concept I’m running a pilot on, I compiled four key takes to divide into different quadrants — (Quad 1) Critical/Positive, (Quad 2) Overwhelming Positive, (Quad 3) Overwhelming Critical,  (Quad 4) Positive/Critical. I’m naturally a positive “glass half full person,” so I didn’t want to use negative. Instead, I use the term critical. And even then, “overwhelming critical” does not project “failure.”

• Quad 1 — Critical/Positive: UConn will not 3-peat, but Dan Hurley will develop another lottery prospect. It’s hard to three-peat at any level, and there’s so much parity across a ton of loaded teams. Connecticut won’t win the national championship this year. However, Dan Hurley will complete a three-peat with developing a lottery-level prospect. Liam McNeeley will follow Clingan, Castle, and Jordan Hawkins as the lottery Huskies. Scouts may be concerned about his level of athleticism on the wing. His malleability outweighs it and screams “elite role player” upside with his knock-down shooting, defensive tools, off-ball movement, and passing — skills that should be flashed in Hurley’s system. Also, he may not go in the lottery, but don’t sleep on Alex Karaban as a top-20 guy, as he possesses unbelievable two-way feel on the wing and could impact winning in the NBA right away.

• Quad 2 — Overwhelming Positive: Kevin Young will start a pro pipeline at BYU and keep Mark Pope’s momentum up as a top-25 team. Kevin Young will deploy a system at BYU that will emulate principles from the modern NBA, which will parlay into team and individual success. They have plenty of dribble-pass-shoot guys on the perimeter at varying degrees — Demin, Dallin Hall, Richie Saunders, and Trevin Knell. Demin and Catchings will be Young’s first one-and-done prospects, as both players have the potential to go in the first round. Demin could become a lottery prospect, though it’ll depend on how he manufactures points as a perimeter player with an inconsistent jumper. Catchings will be heavily coveted if things are clicking for him on both sides of the ball — as his size and archetype fits the vision of what NBA teams want on the wing.

• Quad 3 — Overwhelming Critical: A Calipari guard will not be in this year’s lottery. Since Derrick Rose went first overall in the 2008 draft, John Calipari has had a guard drafted in the lottery in 12 drafts. The trend won’t continue in the 2024 draft. DJ Wagner has a ways to go for serious consideration as a NBA-level guard. You rarely see graduate seniors enter the lottery, so that omits Johnell Davis. Boogie Fland has the most potential to crash the lottery with dynamism as a creator. Two things could stop him though — the lack of teams with true needs at point guard, and his size in a league that’s scaling up. If he does fall outside the lottery though, he could emerge as a draft-night steal. After all, former Wildcats Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley have recently shown you don’t need to be in the lottery to find NBA success as a starting-level guard.

• Quad 4: Positive/Critical: Duke’s depth will help and hurt the stock of different prospects. Duke’s team is going to make a fascinating study, because the minutes distribution may hurt draft stock, but players will play more scalable roles that they may see in the NBA — which could be a stock enhancer. Khaman Maluach could rise to the top-5 or fall outside the lottery depending on his readiness. Kon Knueppel, has scouts raving about his two-way upside. On the other hand, potential one-and-done players — Isaiah Evans and Darren Harris — may have to wait a year behind veterans. Tyrese Proctor may not have the it factor to be a NBA guard. While all eyes are on Cooper Flagg, teams lower in the draft will definitely be keeping tabs on Duke’s supporting cast, a crew littered with prospects that could become great role players.

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