2026 NBA Draft mini-mock: What if Grizzlies stay at 6… or fall?
If the Memphis Grizzlies don't get lottery luck, which prospects could be potential targets?
While the Memphis Grizzlies have a 37.2 percent chance of landing a top-4 pick, they’re just as likely to fall from their 6th spot. There’s a 54.2 percent chance of landing picks 7-10.
That’s not fun to process.
If the Grizzlies don’t land in the top 4, there are still a plethora of prospects with high upside in the area. Most specifically, it’s full of point guard prospects who will help them move forward to the next era, as Ja Morant’s future is likely somewhere else.
Earlier this week, I ran a mini-mock of what the Grizzlies can do if they jump into the top 4. What if they stay at 6 or fall?
Indiana: AJ Dybantsa
Sacramento: Darryn Peterson
Utah: Cameron Boozer
Brooklyn: Caleb Wilson
Washington: Keaton Wagler
Memphis: Kingston Flemings
You can see my last post about Dybantsa and Indiana.
If the Kings are in the business for Dybantsa and Acuff, it wouldn’t be shocking if they like Peterson too.
Utah may get a power forward logjam if they stick at 3 with both Boozer and Wilson on the board, as they have Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen. Frankly, they should roll with Boozer here. Worth noting, Carlos Boozer is in Utah’s scouting department.
Brooklyn goes chalk with Caleb Wilson, who should provide two-way value.
The Wizards have shown a bit of a type with Will Dawkins’ front office. They aren’t afraid of a player that needs physical development if they have the requisite height and skill — showing specifically in their picks on Kyshawn George and Will Riley. They likely won’t go small guard here with Trae Young on the roster as well. With that said, Keaton Wagler and the Wizards may be the most obvious non-top-4 outcome for them.
At 6, I roll with Kingston Flemings here. He possesses a fascinating blend of speed, physicality, and playmaking. As a scorer, he has room to grow as a finisher — while he needs to develop his control as a finisher, he had a poor spacing context and has the athleticism to figure it out here. He shot the ball well off the catch (45.5 percent on catch-and-shoot 3’s) and in the mid-range, but he needs to hone in on his pull-up shooting. Because of his upside as a defender, particularly with his aggressiveness at the point-of-attack and in passing lanes, I’m optimistic of Flemings’ potential outcomes. While he has the speed and playmaking to become a star, if that upside doesn’t hit, he can become a Jalen Suggs or Cason Wallace type player — a secondary playmaker that can play off a bigger primary and wreak havoc defensively.
Washington: AJ Dybantsa
Indiana: Cameron Boozer
Dallas: Darryn Peterson
Utah: Caleb Wilson
Brooklyn: Darius Acuff
Sacramento: Kingston Flemings
Memphis: Keaton Wagler
Dybantsa would be the perfect piece for Washington, as they have the perfect infrastructure for a player of his archetype.
Boozer and Haliburton would be an apex level of basketball genius together.
Just what the Southwest division needs: another young star duo together. Darryn Peterson and Cooper Flagg would be a force.
Again with Utah, I wonder what happens if they get into the top 4 with either power forward on the board. Wilson and Jaren Jackson Jr. would wreak defensively.
While the Nets took an abundance of playmakers last year, Acuff would be a star bet that they can build its offense around.
This is not a Kings-Kingston Flemings pun here.
If Memphis isn’t in the top 4, landing Wagler would be the best outcome. He’s PG1 for me, and if his measurements really land around 6’6” with a 7’0” wingspan, he’s likely in a tier of his own. Despite possessing subpar athleticism, he plays with poise beyond his years — hunting mismatches, slithering his way downhill to draw fouls, having sound footwork, and making the right read. He also has pull-up shooting equity. Even though he needs to add more to his frame, he’s not afraid of contact — shown through his willingness to drive and to crash the glass. If he can really be a team’s point guard, it’s a clear size advantage in a league trending towards positional size — for Memphis, having their 1 and 2 be two guys that are at least 6’5” with a 7’0”+ wingspan would be huge to secure this edge. If not, he can be a viable shooting guard, especially as he puts on more weight. His frame enables him to have more potential outcomes, while his creation and poise formulate a sky-high upside.
Dallas: Darryn Peterson
Brooklyn: Cameron Boozer
Utah: AJ Dybantsa
Hawks: Caleb Wilson
Washington: Keaton Wagler
Clippers: Brayden Burries
Sacramento: Darius Acuff
Memphis: Kingston Flemings
A lot of these notes revolve around previous versions both in this post and other ones. However, I do want to bring up a possible scenario at play: a trade-up.
If the Grizzlies don’t jump up in the draft, a trade-up situation is at play. They frequently trade up to go get their guys:
Cedric Coward (16 → 11, 2025)
Cam Spencer (57 → 53, 2024)
Jake LaRavia (22 → 19, 2022)
Ziaire Williams (17 → 10, 2021 — although done the week of the draft, and not draft night)
Santi Aldama (40 → 30, 2021)
Xavier Tillman (40 → 35, 2020)
Brandon Clarke (23 → 21, 2019)
The Grizzlies have an abundance of assets to move up with 12 first-round picks at their disposal. It’s hard to envision a team sacrificing a shot at this draft’s top three unless they felt confident about a player outside it. For example, if the Kings were 3rd and Memphis was 6th or 7th, and there was confidence Acuff would be on the board, maybe a trade can be had there.
However, let’s look at this board. I’m eyeballing the Wizards and Clippers. The Wizards may go for Wagler here, but they could also seek out the extra asset to drop a few spots. If the Clippers benefit from the Pacers’ lottery misfortune, then they get a pick 5-9. Unless it’s Wagler, I don’t see them taking another point guard with the recently acquired — and still young — Darius Garland. The Clippers already don’t have a ton of assets. Could they become a trade partner with Memphis? That’s one I’d keep my eye on.
Hawks: AJ Dybantsa
Indiana: Cameron Boozer
Oklahoma City: Darryn Peterson
Dallas: Caleb Wilson
Washington: Keaton Wagler
Brooklyn: Darius Acuff
Utah: Brayden Burries
Sacramento: Kingston Flemings
Let’s hold on 9… but yes, this is the likely the worst outcome possible for Memphis.
I will say, this top-3 would have the biggest effect on the title race. Atlanta has the infrastructure in place to really take off if they have lottery luck. Boozer can immediately help after Indiana’s gap year. Just what OKC needs… another first-round pick.
The trade-up partners are hard to identify here. Memphis has been known to not really care about what a mock draft says. If they fall to 9, it wouldn’t shock me to see them shock some people a bit. Who are the options?
Mikel Brown Jr. has the most upside with his blend of playmaking, shot creation, and improved finishing. While his turnovers and defense need to clean up, the biggest question scouts will likely have revolves around his season-ending back injury. He has the widest range of outcomes in this draft.
Dailyn Swain out of Texas is a creation bet on the wing. He will need to scale his game into a role that requires him to hone in on his shooting and defense — although he has improved his shooting every year, and he has the size and length to be impactful defensively. He has real driving equity with his size, stride length, navigation, and ball-handling — all while being a solid playmaker. I can see him rise into the top 10 after a strong pre-draft process.
Yaxel Lendeborg would be a popular pick. He has virtually no holes in his game if the shot is for real, and he possesses great positional size if he’s really more of a combo forward than combo big. Will the Grizzlies front office trend older with a younger build?
I have Aday Mara as a top 10 guy, so I’d list him by default. With the investment in Zach Edey on the roster, they shouldn’t use a top 10 pick on a guy that can’t play with him — even if they need insurance.
Labaron Philon showcased creation equity in his return to Alabama, and he can play off the ball — as shown in his freshman season. He needs to add mass, and may ultimately be more of a backup. However, there’s a star outcome on the table worth betting on.
After the lottery — but obviously not on Sunday since it’s Mother’s Day — I’ll gather up reactions and thoughts and how it pertains to the Memphis Grizzlies.
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