2025 NBA Draft: March Risers, Fallers, 2026 Decisions
Seven 2025 NBA Draft prospects have seen their stocks shift a bit on my board through March's stretch of the conference and NCAA tournaments.
While you can’t define a player’s projection solely off a month of basketball, March is a great evaluation period because you can see how players respond to high-leverage situations. With the Final Four beginning this weekend, I examine seven prospects — three risers, two fallers, and two players with fascinating “stay or go” decisions to make for 2026 — whose stocks changed the most over the past several weeks.
Risers
Kon Knueppel, Duke. The Duke sharpshooting wing was a player I struggled with as he underwhelmed in early-season outings against tough competition. He didn’t strike me as a shooter that made defenses pay for leaving him open. Not only did that change in conference play (42.4% from 3 on 5.9 attempts per game), he showed he’s a reliable secondary playmaker capable of buoying lineups for stretches, given how he stepped up in the ACC tournament through Cooper Flagg’s absence. It has shined through his two-man game with Khaman Maluach. Smart players that can knock down 3’s, touch the paint, and make plays for teammates are valuable, especially as 6’6” wings. This March, Knueppel has locked himself in my lottery, as it wouldn’t shock me if he’s a top-5 prospect in this class.
Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma. Conference play was a little bit of a struggle for Fears — after all, he’s an 18-year-old starting point guard that’s the engine for a SEC team. His tournament performance was a reminder of his talent and upside going forward. His creativity shines as a scorer and a playmaker. His assist numbers undersell his playmaking ability, evident in the UConn game in round one. He’s superb at generating advantages downhill and at escaping blitzes, showcasing a wide passing map when locating open teammates. His advanced body control helps him as a finisher. Teams will want to see how real the shooting can become, though his free throw percentage and live-dribble creation are baselines for upside. With his momentum from March, Fears could sell a team on his “star lead guard” indicators.
Walter Clayton Jr., Florida. Clayton has captured eyeballs with his big shots that resemble Steph Curry’s. While it’s far from likely that he follows the trajectory, Clayton is an easy bet to be a productive 10-year pro, one that could also immediately win basketball. As a lead guard, he’s aggressive yet steady — pushing the pace, and keeping his eyes up for open driving lanes and passing. He’s just as good shooting off the dribble (37.3% on dribble jumper 3’s) as he is off the catch (38.8% on catch-and-shoot), which should help his malleability as a true combo guard. His performance in Florida will have a spotlight on his theatrics — the big-time shots — but teams will continue to marvel at just how impactful Clayton is on winning basketball.
Fallers
Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois. Turnovers have been a big flaw in Jakucionis’s game, and March amplified it more. He closed the season with 6 turnovers in each of his final 4 games of the season. Intrigue exists in his game as a jumbo creator that makes tough shots, has passing creativity, and can hold his own defensively. However, this main flaw in his game worries me when projecting a future starting point guard, especially near the top of the draft. It doesn’t help that the shooting tailed off to close the season, and he doesn’t have the burst to consistently create advantages.
Liam McNeeley, Connecticut. I remain high on Liam McNeeley, giving him the doubt of a poor context at UConn. It’s overlooked how much playmaking Dan Hurley couldn’t replicate after the losses of Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer, and Tristan Newton. With a bulk of it tasked on McNeeley, his woes were highlighted significantly more than his strengths. His athleticism hinders him from finishing efficiently at the rim. Despite projected as a knockdown shooter, he struggles as a live-dribble shooter. I still hold stock, since a better context would best utilize his shooting and feel — though he moved from top-6 to late-lottery on my board. Nonetheless, it’ll be paramount for him to showcase his knockdown shooting in pre-draft workouts.
2026 Decisions
Yaxel Lendeborg, Alabama-Birmingham. Lendeborg dropped the stat line of the season in an AAC tournament game with 30 points, 20 rebounds, 9 stocks, and 8 assists. The craziest thing about this performance is everything looked within the flow of the game. Though UAB didn’t win the conference tournament, he outplayed projected first-round pick Rasheer Fleming in the NIT. His feel and production are impeccable. He has a nose for the ball on the glass and for creating defensive events — one of the best prospects at generating a possessions advantage. His versatility is wide on both sides of the ball — defending at the top of presses then as an anchor, while also creating looks for his teammates with his pace and passing. This March solidified Lendeborg as a first-round pick on my board, and a great combine could get him in late-lottery discussions. However, he recently entered the transfer portal this past week, where he’s one of the coveted targets in the country. At 22 years old, and with a skillset made to impact winning immediately, his decision will be quite intriguing to monitor.
Tahaad Pettiford, Auburn. Ahead of this weekend’s Final Four, nobody can make themselves more money than Auburn freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford. He hasn’t been in Bruce Pearl’s starting lineup, but he’s had a huge impact off the bench with his scoring pop. He’s a dazzling, shifty guard that can score at three levels and keep the ball on a string — skills that have shined in Auburn’s run this March. While I’d like to see how he looks as a true point guard, his talent is undeniable, and a team could buy themselves on him developing those floor general skills. Regardless, he’s primed for a big weekend that can see another jump — given his role on Auburn’s team and his electrifying offensive game. If his stellar performance continues, he can either see a huge leap on draft boards or be one of college basketball’s biggest NIL returners next season.
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