2025 NBA Draft: 5 trickiest evaluations

As big boards and scouting reports are wrapping up, I lay out the five prospects that were the toughest ones to evaluate.

The NBA Draft is less than 12 days away. Analysts are getting close to having their pencils down on their evaluations of this class — although it truly never ends with player development. I fall in this boat, as I’ll be releasing my 2025 NBA Draft Guide on my Substack in 10 days. With most of my scouting reports finalized, here are the five players I genuinely had the toughest time evaluating — ranging from star bets, weak links with elite trademark skills, an underrated prospect I like, and an unconventional player.

Ace Bailey

Ace Bailey is a tricky evaluation because he has the archetype teams tend to covet. He’s a big wing (6’7” without shoes) that can seamlessly create tough buckets with an excellent elevation and point of release on his jump shot. However, it still feels theoretical with him. While his pull-up shooting is his trademark skill, he’s not particularly efficient there, as he boasts a 36.4 effective field goal percentage on dribble jumpers. He takes a heavy diet of contested twos, but he doesn’t get to the rim nearly enough — only 102 of 156 of his twos came at the rim.

In addition, there are questions of how his game can scale when he’s not the guy. He’s a solid rebounder, and he has the tools to be a good weak-side rim protector. Bailey has the potential to be the second-best player in this class behind Cooper Flagg, given his tools and scoring acumen. However, it’s just incredibly challenging evaluating him in that lens when his flaws as a creator (playmaking and ball-handling) and in the energy department pop off the page as well.

He may not be the next Kevin Durant, and maybe he can be more of a Michael Porter Jr. or Rashard Lewis — though he has to prove he can be a potent catch-and-shoot player to achieve this outcome. His trajectory will be fascinating to follow, as he has the mesmerizing tools but worrisome flaws.

Egor Demin

Egor Demin is typically the kind of prospect I’d gravitate towards. It always intrigues me when a prospect projects as an elite passer. Demin is one of the best playmakers I’ve evaluated. His weaknesses, though, scream “weak link.” As a lead guard, he can’t generate advantages without a screen. Defenses can sag off because he doesn’t have a good track record as a shooter.

When shifting to the idea that he can be a wing, he’s not laterally quick enough or strong enough on the perimeter. I see the comparisons to Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey, but they have more strength that they leverage when touching the paint. Even with a Kyle Anderson outcome, Anderson is worlds better as a defender. Demin could become the intriguing jumbo playmaker teams covet, but his flaws as a creator, shooter, and defender just don’t hold a ton of playoff viability.

Tre Johnson

Tre Johnson is the player I go back and forth on. Initially, he didn’t impress me. He relied a ton on tough, contested jumpers, because he couldn’t create the necessary advantages to touch the paint. To be a complete scorer, you have to be able to score at three levels. However, he is one of the best outside shooters in the draft. Recently, Esfandiar Baraheni from Raptors Republic compared Johnson to Michael Redd, and it kind of clicked for me. He can hit tough shots and thrive as a secondary, or quasi-primary, scoring option. At the same time, it’s hard to be as fully in on Johnson as others.

I see him mentioned in the same realm of scorers like Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, and Tyler Herro, but he doesn’t have the wiggle they possess on the ball. He also doesn’t provide a ton in other departments — he has the chops to be a secondary playmaker, but he’s a low-activity defender and rebounder. The precedent for two-guards that don’t finish effectively, get to the line, or generate defensive activity is uninspiring, but he’s also a nuclear shooter that can get his shot off in any daylight.

Ben Saraf

Ben Saraf immediately caught my eye with his FIBA performance last year. He routinely got downhill with craftiness, leveraging his deceleration to touch the paint and generate scoring opportunities. He’s a dazzling playmaker. He also has a real nose for the ball to create steals and deflections. So how is it tough to evaluate Saraf? I’m not sure how well he can play off the ball. This season, he has become a reliable catch-and-shoot player (37.5% on 64 attempts), but his live-dribble shooting and wonky shooting mechanics don’t offer a ton of inspiration for sustainability — 19% on 63 attempts. As a creator, he doesn’t have the burst to fully create advantages without a screen.

Regardless, Saraf may be underrated among the consensus. He’s a bigger guard with wicked passing creativity, defensive activity, streaky shooting, and crafty driving acumen. While he may thrive attacking tilted defense, he really needs his shooting to hold up to manifest his upside.

Danny Wolf

Danny Wolf popped off the page this year with his unconventional role as a pick-and-roll ball-handler with Michigan. Some of his reads pop off the TV screen, and he hit insane dribble jumpers — things 7-footers shouldn’t be doing. In a league that’s trending towards playing two bigs together, Wolf is a good fit. However, I’m not sure which one is his most effective position.

As a perimeter player, even with his highlight-reel flashes, he turns the ball over rather frequently (59.1% at the rim in the half-court, 8 dunks this year) and he isn’t a reliable floor spacer (33.9% from 3 on 113 attempts). I’m also not sure he has the mobility to defend the perimeter. As a pure big, he’s not athletic enough to finish effectively. Defensively, he’s a steady rebounder, and he blocked shots more at Yale, but will teams trust him as an anchor? A team could draft Wolf, tap into his skills, and he’s awesome. Or, he could be stuck as a tweener big that a coaching staff has challenges working around.

On Monday, I’ll post about the five easiest players to evaluate and to project their NBA futures… besides Cooper Flagg.

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