2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies Season Preview and Predictions

The Memphis Grizzlies are about to kick off the 30th season in franchise history. Can they bounce back from their injury-riddled campaign to reclaim their spot at the top of the West?

Oct 22, 2024

Roster additions: Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells, and Cam Spencer (draft) — Jay Huff (two-way contract)

Roster losses: Derrick Rose (retirement) — Jordan Goodwin, Lamar Stevens (free agency) — Trey Jemison (waived) — Yuta Watanabe (declined player option) — Ziaire Williams (traded)

Last season’s team record: 27-55

Last season's conference ranking: 13th

Last season’s offensive and defensive rating: 106.8 (30th), 113.7 (12th)

Projected (fully healthy) starting lineup: Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey

The Memphis Grizzlies are back, and the vibes seem better than they were at the beginning of the calendar year. Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane, and Brandon Clarke are all back from injury. They’ve filled their gap at center with the gigantic Zach Edey, who will have eyeballs on him given his unique fit in the modern NBA. The Grizzlies have potential answers on the perimeter with a young wing rotation of Vince Williams Jr., GG Jackson, Jaylen Wells, and Jake LaRavia — even if we have to wait a little bit. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Bane expanded the horizons of their game to be Morant’s co-stars. Luke Kennard, Santi Aldama, and John Konchar are veterans that should look great in ideal roles.

Taylor Jenkins overhauled its coaching staff with a focus on improving its halfcourt offense, as international coaching star Tuomas Iisalo was brought in as its offensive architect.

Now we wait to see if the Grizzlies can reclaim their spot near the top of the viscous Western Conference and make a real leap towards title contention.

Best-case scenario

The absolute best-case scenario is a NBA championship. In today’s NBA, that “best-case” scenario can be said for about a dozen team without sounding absolutely delusional. The Grizzlies are in that dozen.

Championship aside, progress is the best-case scenario, and a baseline of “progress” would be making the Western Conference Finals. Obviously, health plays a card here and tends to change the barometer of expectations. Nonetheless, making it to the Western Conference Finals would be a signal of success.

What would be some successful outcomes within this journey?

Ja Morant returning to All-NBA level would be the catalyst, as would Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson containing their ascent as elite co-stars. Jackson returning to Defensive Player of the Year form would be huge. Zach Edey has to look ready — like immediately a starting-caliber center, ready. The Grizzlies need clarity on what Santi Aldama and Brandon Clarke could be, as they are the tickets to frontcourt optionality. Marcus Smart has to be the veteran they imagined next to the Big 3. A young wing has to emerge as a real playoff rotation player this season as well.

As a team, I’m bullish on their defense. Even shuffling players in and out of Memphis, they boasted the 12th-best defense in the league last year. Jaren, Smart, Williams, and Edey create a great quartet to build around. Taylor Jenkins has a knack for building awesome defenses.

Can the offense be championship level? That’s been the question since 2022. They overhauled their assistant coaching staff to revamp its offense — creating more off-ball movement, loosing up on positional definitions, and seeking more advantages. The best-case scenario may not even be having a top-5 halfcourt offense, but can they creep up towards the top-half, top-10 in the league? Even a slightly above average halfcourt offense with an elite defense is an infrastructure for a contender — as the Minnesota Timberwolves showed last season.

Worst-case scenario

Okay, we already saw the worst-case scenario last season. That was a nightmare.

So health aside, the worst-case scenario would be if the Western Conference lives up to the billing, and it looks like other teams have passed the Grizzlies by. Within it, the perceived benefits of the new halfcourt offense system don’t manifest. Their intriguing depth has more questions than anticipated.

In the process, they’re battling for a play-in spot.

That would be the worst-case scenario as it creates more questions than answers over the construction of this team in the 2025 offseason.

Most likely scenario

The most likely scenario trends closer to the best case one. The Grizzlies’ Big 3 is relatively healthy and proves to be the best, most cohesive trio in the league. The information gathered in their gap year — acquiring Edey, and unearthing the gems of Williams and GG — pay off. Smart is an elite role player.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the halfcourt offense. Obviously, they have to hit outside shots to have a remotely average halfcourt offense— and currently, Luke Kennard and Desmond Bane are the most reliable shooters in the rotation (track record longer than a season). Keeping an eye on Aldama, Williams, and both Jackson’s in this department. However, the ball and player movement has had intriguing flashes in the preseason. The kinks should iron themselves out. In addition, they’ve showed early optionality — running hybrids of this movement-centric offense, pick-and-roll’s with Morant, and post touches for Edey.

It may not be a world-breaker that rivals Boston and OKC for best halfcourt offense in the league, but it can work.

I’m willing to bet on any of these outcomes, which would put the Grizzlies in the top-4 of the Western Conference.

Trends I’m monitoring

There’s a lot of new information to unpack in this season. As the season goes along, here’s what I’m watching for with the Memphis Grizzlies. Consider this a small preview of the type of content to expect from me:

The halfcourt offense. I’ve already said quite a bit there.
Bane, Edey pick-and-roll. I’ve written about the upside with the Morant/Edey pick-and-roll. The one with Bane and Edey should be lethal, given the former’s leap as a potent 3-level scorer and as a playmaker. So many looks should open up.
Brandon Clarke’s defense. When the Grizzlies have rolled with Clarke and Jaren lineups, it’s a blend of modern NBA principles with traditional positional definition, as both bigs can switch and protect the rim at a high level. Post-injury, what does Clarke’s role look like defensively? Did he lose a step as a perimeter defender or a rim protector? It’s an interesting wrinkle to watch for, as Clarke is a fixture in high-leverage lineups.
Marcus Smart’s role. The past several years, teams have won a title with guards doing some big-man stuff — let’s call them, “power guards.” Smart has the perfect skillset for that responsibility.
The next wave of trade targets. Over the past year, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Deni Advija, Alex Caruso, and Pascal Siakam have been traded. We’re about in a holding pattern of obvious trade candidates — Brandon Ingram and Zach LaVine aside. Who emerges in the next wave of Grizzlies trade targets? Let’s see what happens if teams don’t start out as expected though.
Can the Grizzlies be the next “gap year” success? In the 2020’s, four of the five teams to come out of the West didn’t make the playoffs in the previous season — Lakers (‘20), Suns (‘21), Warriors (‘22), and Mavericks (‘24). Take it a step further, and you can find that three of these teams drafted a big man with their lottery picks — ignore impact, just a trend. Could the Grizzlies be on a similar timeline?

5 Quick-hit predictions

Alright, now let’s give some quick-hit predictions for the Grizzlies this season.

The Grizzlies will have three award finalists — key word, finalist, not winner: Zach Edey (Rookie of the Year), Taylor Jenkins (Coach of the Year), and Ja Morant (MVP). Edey will be the lone winner here.
The Grizzlies will look to bolster its bench by making a minor trade and by being active on the buyout market, but it will not come at the expense of its top-10 — Morant, Bane, Jaren, Edey, Smart, GG, Vince, Clarke, Aldama, Kennard.
The Grizzlies will beat either the Oklahoma City Thunder or Minnesota Timberwolves to reach the Western Conference Finals. They’ll also beat the Houston Rockets in the first round. A playoff series against Dillon Brooks would be fun.
Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr. will have a game where they each have 5 or more blocks.
Desmond Bane joins Ja Morant in the Grizzlies’ “50-point game” club.

I’m very much looking forward to another season covering the Memphis Grizzlies on SubTsakalidis, and to add my scouting coverage to this space. I’m always receptive to feedback — positive or critical. And most importantly, thank you for the continued support of this platform and the mission behind it: donating to St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. I hope you consider becoming a paid subscriber with a monthly or annual subscription — your monthly or annual donation to St. Jude.

Let’s get another season started.

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